U.S. Open AI Predictions & 2026 Projected Leaderboard: Best Outrights and Props for Shinnecock

I've trained Claude, Gemini, ChatGPT — three popular large language model chatbots — to provide their best 2026 U.S. Open AI predictions for Shinnecock Hills Golf Club. The tournament begins Thursday and runs through Sunday. Scottie Scheffler is the consensus favorite to win.

Top storylines include:

• Scottie Scheffler's hunt for the career grand slam
• Brooks Koepka defending his 2018 title at Shinnecock
• Rory McIlroy (and Aaron Rai) seeking a second major win this season

🤖 U.S. Open AI picks: Best predictions for Shinnecock Hills

All U.S. Open odds via Kalshi as of Thursday at 6 a.m. ET.

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🏆 U.S. Open outright picks

Claude: Matt Fitzpatrick +2464

If I'm being totally honest with myself, Fitzpatrick might actually be the best pick on the card. I'm listing him second only because the price is shorter and the value is slightly less explosive. But the case is airtight:

Fitzpatrick has been consistently excellent in 2026, winning three times on the PGA Tour, finishing second at The Players, and placing top-20 in both majors. He is the only active U.S. Open champion in the field playing the best golf of his career.

Excellent in the wind with his low-ball flight, Fitzpatrick has the short game and mettle needed to outlast everyone at Shinnecock Hills. The key to his 2026 campaign has been his approach play.

He won the 2022 U.S. Open. He understands the demands of this specific championship. His ball flight is built for wind. And he's the hottest player on tour this season by win count. At +2464 he's the same price as Xander Schauffele and Ludvig Åberg, who have no comparable case.

Pick: Fitzpatrick outright down to +2000. If he's shorter somewhere, shop around.

Gemini: Collin Morikawa +5163

If you look at past winners here, you need historical accuracy off the tee combined with legendary long-iron proximity. Morikawa represents the perfect analytical profile for a Flynn-designed Shinnecock.

He is routinely leading the tour in fairway accuracy, and his mid-to-long iron play gives him the necessary control to hit the correct sections of these highly contoured greens.

While the public piles onto Scheffler (+550) or chasing Wyndham Clark’s hot flatstick, Morikawa gives us a major-champion pedigree at a massive premium value.

ChatGPT: Jon Rahm +1787

Rahm is the best combination of:

• Value relative to Scheffler
• U.S. Open pedigree
• Wind performance
• Long-iron play
• Ability to survive difficult setups

A winning score around even par or slightly under favors Rahm more than almost anyone in the U.S. Open field.

Projected winning score: -1

🎯 U.S. Open long-shot picks

Claude: Russell Henley +4067

This is the play I feel best about on the entire card, and the value is real. Let me walk through why.

Henley currently leads the PGA Tour in driving accuracy, finding 72% of fairways this season. On a course where positioning is everything this week, that's a significant weapon. He also ranks 12th in strokes gained total for the season, highlighting just how complete his overall game has become.

Henley has made the cut in four of his last five U.S. Opens with a T13 in 2021, T14 in 2023, T7 in 2024 and T10 last year. He tied for 25th in the 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock and was tied for the lead after the first round.

Henley is sixth in this field for total strokes gained at similar courses to Shinnecock over the last three years.

Henley won the Charles Schwab Challenge last month in a playoff, making three straight birdies down the stretch to force it. He was also a member of the 2025 U.S. Ryder Cup team and finished tied for third at the Masters this year.

Here's the crux of it: Henley's profile is almost a perfect template for Shinnecock success. He's accurate off the tee, elite with his irons, an underrated putter who consistently ranks high in SG: Putting, and he has proven he can compete at this specific venue under U.S. Open pressure.

He was literally leading after Round 1 in 2018 here. He has three straight top-10 finishes at the U.S. Open. He is rested — taking the week off before the tournament. And he's getting +4067 odds to win, which is frankly ridiculous for a player with this profile on this course.

Each of the last four U.S. Open winners came from outside the top 15 in the Official World Golf Rankings. Henley fits that mold exactly. This is exactly the kind of player who sneaks up on everyone and wins a U.S. Open at a brutal, accuracy-premium venue.

Pick: Henley outright at +3500 or better. Also target his Top 10 number, which should be available around +300 - +350

Gemini: Corey Conners +24900

• The statistical profile: When fairways are premium and the wind is blowing 20 mph off the Atlantic, you back elite ball-strikers. Conners is routinely a top-5 iron player and total-driver on the planet.

• The strategy: He doesn't rely on a volatile short game to survive; he simply doesn't miss the targets off the tee. On a Flynn routing where missing the fairway blocks you out completely from the green, his mechanical precision is perfect for keeping big numbers off the card

He gives us that true massive price tag while perfectly fitting into the structural math of our weekend leaderboard.

ChatGPT: Chris Gotterup +6150

This is the long shot I would be most interested in holding relative to his odds.

Why I like him:

• Won twice on the PGA Tour in 2026, including the Sony Open and WM Phoenix Open, proving he can close tournaments
• Finished third at the 2025 Open Championship and has shown he can handle difficult, wind-affected golf.
• Long off the tee, which is valuable at Shinnecock's 7,400-plus yards
• A New York-area setup should suit his game better than many PGA Tour venues
• Most sportsbooks are still pricing him well behind the elite tier despite a breakthrough 2026 season

⏰ U.S. Open first-round leader picks

Claude: Tyrrell Hatton +5782

The FRL market at a U.S. Open is inherently chaotic, and Shinnecock's wind means the draw matters enormously. But if I'm picking a player to shoot a low one on Thursday, Hatton makes a ton of sense.

Tyrrell Hatton thrives in tough conditions on hard golf courses. Hatton comes into this week's event ranking seventh in the field in total strokes gained in the first round of events over the past six months. He also had a T4 finish at last year's U.S. Open.

Hatton just won at LIV Andalucia and has been a mainstay on major championship leaderboards, with eight career top-10s. He's a grinder who plays his best golf when conditions are miserable, and the Thursday forecast — 29 mph gusts and some rain — is his ideal environment.

He plays links golf as well as almost anyone in this field. At 42-to-1 for the FRL market, he's an excellent sprinkle.

Pick: Hatton FRL at +4200 or thereabouts. Small unit — this is a long shot market by nature.

Gemini: Aaron Rai +11011

Rai has a morning tee time on Thursday (7:19 AM off Tee 10), which is a massive strategic advantage before the afternoon coastal winds pick up and bake out the fairways.

He is a premier straight-shooter who doesn't beat himself. In a U.S. Open opening round, you don't need 7 birdies to lead; you need a clean, mistake-free 67 or 68. Rai's fairways-and-greens baseline makes him an ultimate target for a Thursday morning wave sweat.

ChatGPT: Aaron Rai +11011

This aligns with the full-tournament projection.

I do not project Rai to win, but I do project him to contend through Friday because:

• Elite fairway-finder
• PGA champion this season
• Excellent in wind
• Typically gains strokes early in tournaments

Projected Round 1: 67 (-3)

⭐ U.S. Open prop picks

Claude: Wyndham Clark T5 +1150

Clark is flying under the radar here and the price should reflect it. Clark enters in solid form, securing a victory at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson with a final-round 60 and a third-place finish at the Memorial Tournament, followed by a T11 at the RBC Canadian Open.

Most importantly: Shinnecock's wide fairways have drawn comparisons to Los Angeles Country Club, where Clark won the 2023 U.S. Open. He's a former U.S. Open champion who knows how to handle U.S. Open setups and is coming in hot.

At +4000 outright he's a fine play too, but the Top 5 market gives you much better ROI for this specific profile. He's a legitimate podium threat.

Pick: Clark Top 5. Also consider him as a Top 10 play.

Gemini: Alex Fitzpatrick T20 +300

The market is heavily correcting for Matt Fitzpatrick, but his brother Alex is the real mispricing on the board this week. He enters the week having flashed incredible iron metrics with three Top-10 finishes in his last three signature event starts since earning his card.

His approach numbers are structurally higher than his brother's right now. Getting plus-money on a Top 20 for a guy this dialed-in on approach is an absolute theft.

ChatGPT: Brooks Koepka T20 +233

This is largely a course-history and major-championship wager.

• Winner at Shinnecock in 2018
• Two-time U.S. Open champion
• Proven ability to grind on difficult setups

🦅 Top American picks

Claude: Wyndham Clark +4900

I'll be contrarian here and go Clark over the obvious choices. Yes, Scheffler is the chalk and Burns is the consensus value American — but Clark is the guy I want.

Clark secured a victory at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson and a third-place finish at the Memorial Tournament, and he enters this week's edition of the major with momentum. More critically, Shinnecock's wide fairways have drawn comparisons to Los Angeles Country Club, where Clark won the 2023 U.S. Open.

He's already won a U.S. Open. He's already proven he can handle a U.S. Open setup. LACC and Shinnecock share DNA — exposed, wide fairways, firm conditions, wind. Clark's game is built for exactly this.

One could argue that Clark is playing like the best player in the world right now after a win at the Byron Nelson, third at Memorial, and another strong week in Canada.

At +4900, he's priced the same as Burns and Morikawa in most markets but gets far less buzz. That's value. If the "Top American" market is available at your book, Clark at those odds is the play. If not, he's a great outright and Top 5 play.

Runner-up American: Russell Henley (but he's already my long-shot pick, so we're doubling up there). Burns is the safe choice if you want something more conservative.

Gemini: Sam Burns +2400

This market is top-heavy with Scheffler, Schauffele, and Morikawa eating up all the implied probability. Burns has quietly been on an absolute tear since mid-March, showing a balanced profile of driving distance, high-end scrambling, and a hot putter.

By bypassing the outright market and backing him to finish as the top American, we dodge international titans like Rory McIlroy and Ludvig Åberg while capturing a massive numbers edge if the top tier falters.

ChatGPT: Russell Henley +2400

This aligns directly with my leaderboard.

Henley is not the most talented American in the field, but at the price he offers significantly more value than Scheffler, Schauffele, or Young.

Projected finish: 4th overall

🪧 AI's U.S. Open projected leaderboard: Top 20

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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