The third major of the golf season begins tomorrow morning, and we've locked in three U.S. Open first-round leader picks while looking for an early cash at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, N.Y.
The U.S. Open tee times will begin at 6:35 a.m. ET with threesomes off the 1st and 10th tees. We're monitoring those tee times, the weather, featured groups, and recent form (last 8 measured rounds) to help make our best first-round leader picks at Kalshi — one of our best prediction market apps.
💰 U.S. Open first-round leader picks (2026)
| Golfer |  |
Win probability | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
 Tommy Fleetwood |
+3604 | 2.7% | One of the most accurate drivers in the field over last 8 rounds |
 Chris Gotterup |
+5782 | 1.7% | PGA Tour leader in early Round 1 scoring average (67.60) |
| Adrien Dumont de Chassart | +14186 | 0.7% | 4th tee time, and out before featured groups arrive |
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📊 U.S. Open first-round leader odds (2026)
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⛳ Who'll lead the U.S. Open after Round 1?
Best first-round leader pick: Tommy Fleetwood +3604
Tee time: 7:52 a.m. ET | Group: Rory McIlroy & Ludvig Aberg
Tommy Fleetwood is in one of the top featured groups for Thursday and Friday at Shinnecock Hills. However, this is an all-European threesome, and I expect the 7:30 a.m. tee time of Brooks Koepka, Cameron Young, and Chris Gotterup to draw more of the crowd's attention.
Fleetwood ranks as one of the most accurate drivers across everyone's last 8 measured rounds. The expert ball-striker has also gained 0.79 strokes on the greens over that time. Those skills helped him finish T4 in the Memorial and T11 in the Canadian Open.
The first-round leader odds are a bargain, as Fleetwood is +2281 in the tournament winner market. I'd play this confidently at a full unit down to +3000.
Chris Gotterup +5782
Tee time: 7:30 a.m. ET | Group: Brooks Koepka & Cameron Young
Chris Gotterup leads the PGA Tour with an early Round 1 scoring average of 67.60 through five such tee times this season. That tee time helped him fire an opening-round 63 en route to winning the WM Phoenix Open.
Gotterup also shot 63 in the Sony Open before going on to win the event. He's been a strong starter this season, ranking 13th overall in Round 1 scoring average. I'm coupling that with his strong ball striking and putting over his last 8 rounds to make this a full-unit stake down to +4500 odds.
Adrien Dumont de Chassart +14186
Tee time: 7:08 a.m. ET | Group: Ben Silverman & Emiliano Grillo
These +14186 odds for Adrien Dumont de Chassart would return a profit of $1,418.60 on a winning $10 wager. As such, I'm making this a quarter-unit play. But it's arguably my favorite of these three picks.
The Belgian golfer is in the fourth tee time off the back nine on Thursday, paired in an unintimidating group with Ben Silverman and Emiliano Grillo. The early-morning weather at Shinnecock will be the most golfer-friendly, with winds and the chance of rain picking up later in the morning.
Ball striking and driving accuracy are glaring weaknesses for Dumont de Chassart, but I love his short game combination of 0.38 SG: putting and 0.75 SG: around-the-green. It helps that he ranks 15th in Round 1 scoring average through 13 PGA Tour events this season.
📜 U.S. Open first-round leader history
Here are the recent first-round leaders of the U.S. Open, along with the tournament winner and their Round 1 scores:
| Year | First-round leader (score, finish) | Tournament winner (first-round score) |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | J.J. Spaun (-4, 1) | J.J. Spaun (-1) |
| 2024 | R. McIlroy, P. Cantlay (-5, 2&T3) | Bryson DeChambeau (-3) |
| 2023 | R. Fowler, X. Schauffele (-8, T5&T10) | Wyndham Clark (-6) |
| 2022 | Adam Hadwin (-4, T7) | Matt Fitzpatrick (-2) |
| 2021 | L. Oosthuizen, R. Henley (-4, 2&T13) | Jon Rahm (-2) |
Almost more than any other event, the U.S. Open winners were near the top of the leaderboard after Round 1. None of the past five tournament champions was further back than 3 strokes after the first 18 holes.
View the first-round leader and outright markets as strongly correlated. That's why two of my first-round leader picks for Thursday are also near the top of the tournament oddsboard.
🌦️ Thursday's weather at Shinnecock Hills
Here is today's U.S. Open weather report from Accuweather:
| Metric | Forecast |
|---|---|
| 🌡️ Temperature | 16 degrees |
| 💨 Wind | 15 mph (25 mph gusts) |
| 🌧️ Precipitation | 55% chance (0.05 inches) |
| ☀️ Humidity | 89% |
The weather will slightly worsen through the day on Thursday. Winds will pick up and the chance of precipitation increases slightly.
This helps support my usual preference for targeting early tee times in majors, as I like to get ahead of the raucous crowds and wear on the greens.
⛅ What to consider when trading on the first-round leader
The first-round leader market of any golf tournament is far different than wagering on the tournament winner or any prop market.
Here are the factors I always consider with my first-round leader picks:
- Tee times
- Weather
- Course history
- Round 1 scoring average
- Recent form
- Key stats for the week
The first-round leader market is much more volatile than the 72-hole event. As such, the odds for tournament favorites are longer in this market, and the odds for the long shots are generally slightly shorter when trading on the 18-hole sample.
Early tee times are typically best to target for your picks. Courses are often at their softest and easiest, with no divots in the fairways or wear on the greens. But the weather can significantly change that line of thought. Monitor the weather to be sure your desired golfers will be dodging the worst of the rain and wind, should any be in the forecast.
I also greatly reduce my timeframe when looking at recent performance entering Thursday's first round.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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