The third major championship of the 2026 PGA Tour season has arrived with the 156-player field hitting Shinnecock Hills Golf Club for the U.S. Open beginning Thursday, June 18.
Here are a few of my favorite pool strategies and top U.S. Open picks to help you finish in the money and earn bragging rights heading into the summer.
🗝️ Keys to winning your U.S. Open pool
- Making the cut and playing the weekend is critical
- Current form and course fit go hand-in-hand when targeting favorites
- Picking the right favorites won't win a pool, but picking the wrong one can lose it
- Prioritize a contrarian or against-the-grain golfer or two, but don't overdo it
- Selecting the right mid-tier players separates winning poolies the most
📊 2026 U.S. Open player tiers
Odds via BetMGM as of Monday, June 15 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Favorites
Picking the winner and multiple players at the top of the leaderboard is essential to winning your pool, and betting favorites haven’t always played well at the U.S. Open in recent years. Additionally, I’m anticipating the demands of Shinnecock Hills Golf Club to produce a Sunday leaderboard that looks a lot different than the odds board ahead of Round 1.
Scottie Scheffler (+550): Statistically and stylistically, there is no better fit for Shinnecock than Scheffler, and while the wins haven’t been piling up in 2026, I wouldn’t be surprised if his entire focus this season was to win this event to complete the career Grand Slam.
Xander Schauffele (+1800): Mr. Automatic in major championships, Schauffele has a pair of wins to go along with eight Top 10s across 14 majors since the beginning of 2023. And, his worst finish during the heater was a T28 at the 2025 PGA Championship.
Jon Rahm (+1400): If there’s any LIV Golf discount saddled to Rahm, there shouldn’t be. He finished T2 at the PGA Championship in May, and the links-style demands of Shinnecock are a perfect fit for Rahm’s ball-striking and short-game creativity.
Matt Fitzpatrick (+2000): The Englishman has bookended a nine-tournament run with a pair of solo seconds at the THE PLAYERS and RBC Canadian Open with three more wins while ranking second in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green, seventh on approach, and second in the around-the-green metric. His game is dialed throughout the bag.
Contenders
This is where the pool’s contenders separate themselves from the pretenders, and selecting the right players from the middle of the pack will leapfrog you up the standings in your U.S. Open pool when they’re sitting pretty on the Sunday leaderboard.
Sam Burns (+4000): In addition to pacing the field in true strokes gained putting in 2026, Burns has consecutive Top 10s at the U.S. Open and has spiked in both true strokes gained on approaches (+0.95) and around-the-green (+0.51) across his past three events.
Tyrrell Hatton (+3300): Won LIV Golf Andalucia to start the month and has the all-around game to contend at a links-style track. I also value Hatton finishing T4 at the 2025 U.S. Open in addition to gaining true strokes on approach in four consecutive majors.
Patrick Reed (+4000): With a T4 finish at Shinnecock at the 2018 U.S. Open, Reed heads back with a T12-T10 run in majors to start 2026, and his tee-to-green game and short-game prowess are perfect fits for what this course demands. Reed is set to play well again this week.
Long shots to target
A quick peek at the U.S. Open odds is an excellent way to prepare for your pools, and here are a handful of players whose game carries far more weight than their name recognition might. Overloading long shots isn’t necessary, either. Instead, identifying a player or two who go low will be enough to separate you from the pack.
Maverick McNealy (+7000): With three straight Top 25s in majors, and six more across his past nine 2026 events while gaining true strokes tee-to-green, around-the-green and putting, McNealey has my attention as a high-floor target for poolies.
Ben Griffin (+7000): There have been flashes from Griffin this spring with a pair of Top 5 finishes, and he carded a T10 at the U.S. Open last year amid his breakout season. I’m not anticipating Griffin being a popular target for poolies this week, so he’s an ideal contrarian option.
Kristoffer Reitan (+9000): The Truist winner also carded a T6 at the Memorial Tournament and has played the weekend in eight consecutive events ahead of his second trip to Shinnecock Hills. While Reitan missed the cut at the 2018 U.S. Open, his game is in an entirely different place this time around, and he’s another off-the-radar target who can reward.
Big names to avoid
Often, who you fade and don’t select is just as important as the golfers you prioritize in pools. Here are several well-known players and household names I’m looking past this week.
Rory McIlroy: Obviously, McIlroy has the all-around game to both contend and win this week, but he did miss the cut here at the 2018 U.S. Open, and I don’t think his edge off the tee is as large a separator this week as it is at other tracks.
Bryson DeChambeau: Consecutive missed cuts in major championships while losing true strokes on approach and around the green is a massive warning sign for DeChambeau this week.
Brooks Koepka: The 2018 U.S. Open winner at Shinnecock Hills injured his hand and had to withdraw from the RBC Canadian Open last week, so he’s a full fade for me given his “struggles to grip the club".
Ludvig Aberg: I’m confident the first major championship is coming for Aberg sooner than later, but I don’t think this is the major-championship test he’s acing. He’s lost true strokes putting in consecutive majors, and he’s lost true strokes around the green in consecutive signature events.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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