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Lawton's Projections

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Posted: #251
I just hate that I didn't get it sooner... I was late to the party... I have no idea if they win, my program likes it at around 63% tonight, so I'm playing it..
 
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Posted: #252
Was at +115 early this morning 
 
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Posted: #253
Yep, I know but I was unavailable earlier...

I don't want to jinx myself but I have always had a very good model for CBB totals and it starts this week... Check the thread, if your interested..
 
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Posted: #254
Over 6. 
 
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Posted: #255
Chance to middle PHX. Any takers?

Over in 2nd half is 119.5
 
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Posted: #256
I took over 120 for 50. Getting greedy but why not right? 
 
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Posted: #257
Canucks -1.  
 
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Posted: #258
Great middle opportunity. GL
 
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Posted: #259
Probability System
78-56 (+17.70 units)
58.21% Winners
(-107) avg juice
1 unit each

NHL: 36-18 (+16.80 units)
NFL: 12-9 (+2.50 units)
MLB: 9-6 (+3.10 units)
CFB: 14-13 (-0.20 units)
NBA: 7-10 (-4.50 units)

Nov 7

Islanders (-125)

Florida Over 5.5 (-120)

New Jersey Over 5.5 (-110)

Indiana Under 218

Toronto Over 200.5

Denver Under 233

1 unit each

Probability (the likelihood of an outcome occurring)
 
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Posted: #260
Quote Originally Posted by Lawton1:

Probability System
78-56 (+17.70 units)
58.21% Winners
(-107) avg juice
1 unit each

NHL: 36-18 (+16.80 units)
NFL: 12-9 (+2.50 units)
MLB: 9-6 (+3.10 units)
CFB: 14-13 (-0.20 units)
NBA: 7-10 (-4.50 units)

Nov 7

Islanders (-125)

Florida Over 5.5 (-120)

New Jersey Over 5.5 (-110)

Indiana Under 218

Toronto Over 200.5

Denver Under 233

1 unit each

Probability (the likelihood of an outcome occurring)


The probability machine is cranked up this morning!

Looking forward to come CBB.

Thanks, Lawton, for all.
 
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Posted: #261
Thank you sir.
 
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Posted: #262
GL today Lawton. That NHL record is something to be proud of. Keep killing it.
 
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Posted: #263
Thanks guys

I really don't like to have 6 plays pending but if I were to have eliminated any today, I would have had to interject my opinion into the equation and I'm not going to do that.. I try to never have an opinion on any of my wagers... 
 
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Posted: #264

Hey Lawton,

Sorry if I missed this but can you please verify where you will be placing your CBB totals. Will it be in this thread or over in the college BB forum. Thanks and good luck on your plays...


 
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Posted: #265
All my plays will be in this thread... I hate running multiple threads.. Everything in one place...

I'll be starting slowly with the CBB totals, I won't get heated up until Dec... I hope to have fixed the NBA problems, time will tell... Ideally I'll be playing nothing but Totals in basketball...
 
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Posted: #266
Quote Originally Posted by Lawton1:

All my plays will be in this thread... I hate running multiple threads.. Everything in one place...

I'll be starting slowly with the CBB totals, I won't get heated up until Dec... I hope to have fixed the NBA problems, time will tell... Ideally I'll be playing nothing but Totals in basketball...


Thanks so much Lawton... Appreciate the reply!!!!

 
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Posted: #267
Joining you on the FLA/CAR OVER 5.5. 
 
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Posted: #268
I'm staying away from NBA. 
 
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Posted: #269
If u believe in regression to the mean, you should be playing the NBA and avoiding the NHL.  
 
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Posted: #270

Quote Originally Posted by Lawton1:

If u believe in regression to the mean, you should be playing the NBA and avoiding the NHL.
Yeaa  just got killed in the Islanders game. Next time..

 
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Posted: #271
Probability System
80-60 (+15.05 units)
57.14% Winners
(-108) avg juice
1 unit each

NHL: 36-21 (+13.25 units)
NFL: 12-9 (+2.50 units)
MLB: 9-6 (+3.10 units)
CFB: 14-13 (-0.20 units)
NBA: 9-11 (-3.60 units)

Overall the record sits at 80-60 (57.14% winners), exactly as I had projected... Unfortunately the nhl is still running high at over 63%.. The juice looks great at (-108) average.. 

Back later with Wednesdays card..
 
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Posted: #272
My bankroll is gone...or I would have. 
 
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Posted: #273
Last two nights NHL were killers.  I had Penguins big last night, but paid the juice.  Lawton1, your comment on NBA being more predictable than hockey.  Have you back tested this?  Thanks  
 
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Posted: #274
I said nothing about the NBA being more predictable... I was referring to my record for the NHL and NBA... My NHL was too high, my NBA was too low... I think both goes back to 57.14%... That is what I meant about both, regressing to the MEAN...
 
 
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Posted: #275
Nov 8

Tampa Bay +110

Orlando Under 217

Eastern Michigan Over 51

1 unit each


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