Posted:
#301
your looking solid L1
Lawton's Projections
Posted:
#307
Probability System
92-66 (+20.35 units)
58.23% Winners
(-108) average juice
1 unit each
NHL: 38-24 (+11.85 units)
NFL: 12-9 (+2.50 units)
CFB: 19-15 (+2.60 units)
CBB: 2-0 (+2.00 units)
MLB: 9-6 (+3.10 units)
NBA: 12-12 (-1.70 units)
Sunday November 12
Jets (-120) NFL Money line
There will be another release later today, check back to follow along.
I don't understand the question above about juice, if I do not list the juice on each wager, assume its a standard (-110)
I've used models with each sport for several years now, my win %%% always hovered around 55% (longterm) which was good but not good enough for me... I added Probability and Advanced Forecasting to the equation and started this thread.. Hopefully we are now going to raise the Longterm win %%% to 57.14%... Time will surely tell.
Check back later for the full card for Sunday..
Posted:
#311
What I was wondering is if calculating juice based on wager is correct when you only pay juice if you lose. For instance I bet a game -120 and another +100. Average juice -110. But if I win the +100 and lose the -120. My juice is -120. If I win both then there was no juice. I'm probably missing something. Not questioning you just enjoy math and think you might be in the same boat.
As always thank you for sharing your picks I have been tailing since the beginning. Started at 10$ now at 100$. Happy there for now.
Posted:
#312
I enjoy doing this as a side source of income. No need for me to do this full time. I am making quite a bit of money these days but I don't need it to pay the bills. I believe in various streams of income.
I am fascinated with math and numbers, I watch very little of the games, don't need to. I am not a handicapper, I only look at injuries, extreme weather conditions, other than that, I use my programs for each sport. I also use probability and advanced forecasting to solidify picks. Call them the last of the filters, if you will.
My passion is to create a Super System that can hit 57.14% or better, against a (-110) line, over about 105 plays per month, for a year average. If I can accomplish this, I can write my own paycheck.
Sunday's full card will be released soon.
Posted:
#314
If your going to follow the plays. I suggest following all of them and flat betting all for around 2.5% of your bankroll, recslculating the wager every 3 months.
And remember this, if I'm truly correct in my work, everything will regress and progress to the 57.14% area, that is Overall record, as well as the record for individual sports.
I hope to show you work in this thread, that you have not seen before. Just stay with me and keep close eye on the records and the regression and progression factors.
Posted:
#319
Just wanted to clear something up. If 1 unit equals $100 and the line is -125 you suggest risking $100 to win $80 correct? Or if line is +125 we risk $100 to win $125.
Basically we net 0.8 units on the -125 line and 1.25 units on the +125 line but only stand to lose one unit per bet? Also what are we risking on standard -110 lines?
My strategy has been to risk what it takes to win $100 on juiced lines and risk $100 on dogs.
Posted:
#325
Quote Originally Posted by Lawton1:
Nice little business like 3-2 Sunday... The NFL let me down today, injuries and suspensions played a bigger role for Dallas today than I accounted for.. Oh well, the other sports picked up the slack as we went 3-0 on the last 3 plays.. Back on Monday...
Nice little business like 3-2 Sunday... The NFL let me down today, injuries and suspensions played a bigger role for Dallas today than I accounted for.. Oh well, the other sports picked up the slack as we went 3-0 on the last 3 plays.. Back on Monday...
I'm almost to the point where I'm gonna stay away from NFL.
Great work on NBA, you seemed to have got that system tightened up nicely!
Thanks for all.
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