Posted:
#326
Lawton's Projections
Posted:
#327
November 13
Stl. Blues (-105)
Phoenix Under 229.5
Pittsburgh Under 143 (CBB)
1 unit each
As for the NFL, if you believe what I'm telling you about regression and progression, you definitely should play next weeks NFL games. The record should progress back toward the 57.14% mark... That's just my opinion on these and I do know how the records should react..
Posted:
#329
First off I'm not coin flipping, if I were, u would be right...
Using your analogy, let's flip 7 times... Over the long haul, I'm going to win 4 and lose 3... I've done this long enough to think I'm going to win 57.14% of the time... With those odds (if truly accurate), I'll flip with you all day..
Posted:
#331
Quote Originally Posted by Lawton1:
First off I'm not coin flipping, if I were, u would be right...
First off I'm not coin flipping, if I were, u would be right...
Using your analogy, let's flip 7 times... Over the long haul, I'm going to win 4 and lose 3... I've done this long enough to think I'm going to win 57.14% of the time... With those odds (if truly accurate), I'll flip with you all day..
Nothing about this response makes sense. Yes, I understand you aren't coin flipping. I used an analogy where we know the probability of the possible results to compare to your system which attempts to estimate the probability of two possible results (even though it isn't 50-50 in your system, its 57.14-42.86). Nevertheless, like a coin flip, the results are independent observations, right? The likelihood that the panthers beat the flyers one night is independent of whether the wild beat the ducks the next?
Anyway, what is really baffling is your reference to 7 observations in the coin flip analysis and then saying that over the long haul, one expects the seven observation ratio to hold up over the long haul. That doesn't make any sense. Let's say you flip the coin 3 times, then over the long haul, one side will win twice to the other side's once. I'll take that 66.6% winner all day. But what does that have to tell us about anything?
Anyway, what is really baffling is your reference to 7 observations in the coin flip analysis and then saying that over the long haul, one expects the seven observation ratio to hold up over the long haul. That doesn't make any sense. Let's say you flip the coin 3 times, then over the long haul, one side will win twice to the other side's once. I'll take that 66.6% winner all day. But what does that have to tell us about anything?
Perhaps what you are suggesting (if I ignore the baffling coin flip statement), is that the observations are not truly independent because each result is inputted into the system to calculate the next pick. Even so, it's not apparent that one can infer increased probability of the following week's picks being any more or less likely to hit.
To put it in another way: If you throw out all your past picks, but keep your data in the system, are you more likely than 57.14% to hit next week on your NFL picks? You're telling people you are.
Posted:
#334
Interesting discussions on statistics and such. And not to belabor the point, but the NHL right now stands at a 62% winning %. If what you say is true, then shouldn't we bet against the system picks until the winning % normalizes to 57%. Just curious, as does your system actually pick against the winning team you predict is going to cover in those situations to get back to the regression to the mean? If not, just pick winners baby!
Posted:
#335
Whew, nice discussion... Yes each game is independent of the next.. Maybe I should have simply stated things like this..
I believe my systems longterm win %%% to be 57.14% and I didn't just make this up..... I have years of data and records to support this claim... The NFL season record is just over 50% and the season is half over, I would suspect a rise in the record, back to the 57.14% area... Now this doesn't mean that it will happen this weekend but it should happen soon..
Look at the NBA record, it started off 4-9 and guys didn't want to play the NBA plays.. Since then its gone 9-3 and is progressing back to the 57.14% area...
And yes, sadly the NHL will probably drift lower but that doesnt mean that it will happen tonight or it may not happen this season, I've had seasons over 60% before...
I would like to state that my basketball totals are usually good and I've had seasons that the CBB totals, stayed on fire... And believe it or not, my CBB won't even kick in fully until December...
Good luck to each of you...
Posted:
#336
Thank you and this makes sense. I have read through the entire thread, and by and large it looks like you're doing something special. I look at it a little differently in how to interpret from the side of someone who isn't looking at your backend:
Believe this system or don't. But don't pick and choose which games you play because of the record associated with the sport, your gut feelings on the games picked or any other specific reason. If you miss a day, or a post with a set of plays, that's fine because what you miss is random, not an attempt to defeat the numbers behind the picks. The goal is over the long haul and if you manage your bankroll (set up one specific for the system if you're following) you should come out ahead down the line.
Once you start trying to figure out which picks are the good ones or try to time the picks based on recent past (like three picks failed last night, lets go all in today), you aren't doing it right. This system will rise and fall and you should either trust it or dont play.
I do believe that if you dont want to bet a particular sport, that shouldnt defeat the system as the sports are handled independently. But you shouldnt avoid a sport just because of the record at any given point in time (doing so could cause you to miss the upswing.correction). It's when you try to actively improve upon the system as an outsider by inserting your own ideas that you will run into problems.
after you clicked submit. He always takes the over in NHL. Just messing. But I really did that last night.
Posted:
#341
Quote Originally Posted by Hockeyfan64:
How do you feel about parlaying bets Lawton?
How do you feel about parlaying bets Lawton?
Would it not be beneficial to just parlay all the bets to increase the odds?
Lawton said not to parlay......reality is if his program hits 57% like he thinks it will.......you should only be betting parlays the expected value is so much better.
Using a true Kelly % of bankroll when multiple games are going is best accomplished by doing something like this. If there are 3 games. Instead of betting $100 on each game.....bet $60 straight bet on each game and (3) 2 team parlays of $20 each. It will most closely follow a true % of bankroll.
if 2 games go at the same time it would be $66 straight and (1) 2 team parlay at $33
A 57.1% win rate correlates to 10% of your bankroll for optimal percentage. I would recommend erring on the low side and reduce the % to something like 4-6 %.
If you played a true % of bankroll and hit 57% and had played 10% of bankroll after 500 plays you would have a bankroll of 8.55 times original. After 1000 plays it would be 73 times larger than your original.
Flipside you hit 55% your bankrolls would only 1.25 & 1.50 betting 10%.
On the other hand if you played 6% of bankroll and hit 57% after 500 plays it would be 6.25 and after 1000 plays 39.1.
On the flipside if you played 6% and hit 55% after 500 plays 1.98 and 3.92 after 1000.
Tonight my program likes Phoenix Under 118 in the first half ...if that happens Phoenix may go under for the game but not strong enough to play. Also 42% of the games it is not only under in the first half but Phoenix will cover. Positive correlation worth parlaying.
#followthenorthernstar
Posted:
#342
Probability System
96-70 (+19.90 units)
57.83% Winners
(-109) 1 unit each
NHL: 39-25 (+11.80 units)
NFL: 12-11 (+0.20 units)
CFB: 19-15 (+2.60 units)
CBB: 3-1 (+1.90 units)
NBA: 14-12 (+0.30 units) 10-3 last 13
MLB: 9-6 (+3.10 units)
Nov 14
Akron Over 51.5 (CFB)
Houston Under 219
Winnipeg Over 5.5
1 unit each
Posted:
#343
Quote Originally Posted by Lawton1:
Probability System
Probability System
96-70 (+19.90 units)
57.83% Winners
(-109) 1 unit each
NHL: 39-25 (+11.80 units)
NFL: 12-11 (+0.20 units)
CFB: 19-15 (+2.60 units)
CBB: 3-1 (+1.90 units)
NBA: 14-12 (+0.30 units) 10-3 last 13
MLB: 9-6 (+3.10 units)
Nov 14
Akron Over 51.5 (CFB)
Houston Under 219
Winnipeg Over 5.5
1 unit each
Two nights in a row we have had totals on the same NBA game. I won on the first half under last night and you won on the game under.
Tonight I have Houston Under 219.5
It is 19-9 last 8 years and a very nice 8-0 last 4 years.
Good luck to us!!
#followthenorthernstar
Posted:
#344
Hey Lawton, i have been following your thread since its existence. No idea what you account for in your model.. nor is it my business to know.
If i may, i have a couple questions. At the end of the day, i am CHOOSING to invest my money on your advices (yes, choosing for those whom rip into others when tailing a capper.. lose the bet.. then rip into that capper), so i must ask....
What is your motivation for posting free picks? do you intend on proving yourself at which point you intend on profiting further of this by selling picks? or are you doing this purely out of a love for the hobby, and a hatred towards the bookies?
To be quite honest, i would love to talk to you further and get to know you better although it seems you want nothing to do with people outside of this forum based on previous posts.
(about the new profile.. i just registered upon realizing i cant post ever since they banned my 'priviledges' after i ripped into them regarding their shitty behind customer support and laziness when doing their jobs and removing spams from these forums)
much respect from Toronto!
If i may, i have a couple questions. At the end of the day, i am CHOOSING to invest my money on your advices (yes, choosing for those whom rip into others when tailing a capper.. lose the bet.. then rip into that capper), so i must ask....
What is your motivation for posting free picks? do you intend on proving yourself at which point you intend on profiting further of this by selling picks? or are you doing this purely out of a love for the hobby, and a hatred towards the bookies?
To be quite honest, i would love to talk to you further and get to know you better although it seems you want nothing to do with people outside of this forum based on previous posts.
(about the new profile.. i just registered upon realizing i cant post ever since they banned my 'priviledges' after i ripped into them regarding their shitty behind customer support and laziness when doing their jobs and removing spams from these forums)
much respect from Toronto!
Posted:
#349
Probability System
97-72 (+18.70 units)
57.40% Winners
(-109) avg juice
1 unit each
NHL: 39-26 (+10.70 units)
NFL: 12-11 (+0.20 units)
CFB: 20-15 (+3.60 units)
CBB: 3-1 (+1.90 units)
NBA: 14-13 (-0.80 units)
MLB: 9-6 (+3.10 units)
Nov 15
NY Rangers (+120) NHL
No. Illinois Over 49.5 (CFB)
OKC Over 201 (NBA)
Princeton Under 152 (CBB)
Pacific Over 143 (CBB)
Large card but we have a lot going on right now...
Best of luck if you follow, I would expect a decent upturn coming up soon..
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