PACERS THREAD FROM A LOCAL

RAptors +9 tonight?  How are they this big of dogs?  Raptors are a solid team this line seems a bit high what are your thoughts Alan?

I might add if one looks back at the Pacers record at home at -9 or  less  it is quite striking,  HOWEVER Toronto has been playing very well and it is probably best to wait for the myriad of other East teams to visit the Pacers and make a better investment at that time.  Also, remember to look at the Pacers at home ats by half as a play against the 90 pound weaklings.  Alangrrbs is correct that the Under lines are not adjusted downward as much as the Over lines go up-the public likes overs and Vegas will gladly take their money.  There's money to be made by studying the tough, defensive teams that know how to rotate, rebound, and have long athletes to guard the 3.

It does seem high...I think the line makers and bettors have the revenge aspect in mind.  Pacers lost bad at Toronto, and most believe they are going to want to beat the Raptors pretty bad.  And they certainly have the horses to do it.  Nine points does seem high, but nothing would surprise me tonight.  I'm laying off it, but good luck if you decide to pull the trigger. 

I've done it several times...I imagine every bettor across the world has done it.  It's one of those lessons that we only learn by fire.

Someone tweeted that bad weather screwed up Raptor travel plans and made them arrive late. I don't know if that really matters though.

I've found that crazy travel plans have very little impact on professional athletes.  Heard a fascinating interview a couple years ago with a former NHL player, and he said sometimes when you have crazy travel, or long road trips it can actually bring a team closer together and it makes them play harder at times.  He was only talking about hockey at the time, but I think his point is valuable to apply to professional sports.  Travel is part of the job, and this is the only job these guys have.  Not saying it can't have an impact, but making a bet with your money and trying to let travel plans affect that bet is not something I like to do.  College is different.  They have classes, social life, and all the things that go along with being 18-20 years old.  Crazy travel can have a big impact on the younger guys.  Just my 2 cents.

I don't think I've ever seen a team as lost on offense as the Raptors look tonight.  Lowry and Derozan scored all their 1q points...and it was only 15.  They have 0 inside game...all outside jumpers...difference between this game and last game against the Pacers is that they aren't hitting these shots.

Great first half betting wise as the 1h total went under...Pacers TT went under, and a great shot at the Total going under.  I've been burned the last couple games on 2h bets, but I'm going to stick with it and take Pacers -2.5.  Paul George didn't play much due to foul trouble, and the Raptors are struggling big time.   Pacers learned their lesson at the Cavs last night by not putting a team away...I don't think they make the same mistake tonight. 

Pacers -2.5

And a nice shout out to Belexus...Raptors TT went under by a lot 1h.  Nice job noticing that trend.

alan, atlanta has won 11 straight regular season home meetings vs the pacers.  the pacers did, however, close out the playoff series game 6 in atlanta last year.  pacers also playing 4th game in 5 nights and its very hard to sweep a 4 in 5 nights once in a year let alone twice (nov 5,6,8 and 9)

1H under cashed.... Your system is cruising on autopilot right now.

Yeah, it was a good night...3-1 for my picks.  Still have been struggling with 2h picks the last few games, but can't complain about 3-1.

Teague at the buzzer, eh? 

you're correct 4 in 5 nights is tough.  And the Pacers haven't been playing championship caliber ball recently.  I'll do the research and do the write up shortly.

great stuff!  agree

Alan,

I really like Atlanta in this spot. I see the 4 1/2 as a huge sucker
line. Similar to last weeks at Toronto when the Pacers only laid 5.
Now they are laying less with a team who doesn't have their best
player. 4th Game in 5 nights and it looks as if Indiana is struggling
big time on offense. These are just my thoughts but hey you are
the Pacers guru.

Pacers at Hawks

Good win for the Pacers last night...it was still not pretty basketball, but a win is a win.  Granger is starting to hit his stride, and it seems like they are really wanting to give him minutes.  The problem with that is that there ends up being odd lineups that players aren't used to.  I know Vogel is just experimenting, and as long as the team is winning it's not a big deal, but from a betting perspective the lines are getting difficult to predict.

Hawks have not been playing good recently.  Lost at Brooklyn, at Chicago, beat Boston by 1, lost to Golden State, lost to Orlando...and needed OT to beat Cleveland and Charlotte.  So we have 2 teams that are slumping a bit...difference is Pacers are pulling out the wins.

Rebounding is probably going to determine this game.  Pacers dominated the boards last night...Hawks over the season aren't a great rebounding team, but I do think they can hang in there tonight.  West had 12 rebounds last night, but he gets tired off of back to backs...especially with the physical style of play he plays.  Scola has been great off the bench, particularly with rebounding, and they are going to need him to keep it up.  Millsap can rebound as can Brand off the bench, but the Hawks center (I don't know anything about his game I'm just going off of the stats), isn't a rebounding threat.

The Hawks run their offense through Teague, but George Hill has really stepped up his defensive game, and with him and Stephenson I think they can really disrupt the Hawks offense.

Paul George and Hibbert look like they have mismatches, but Stephenson may be the key guy tonight.  I don't know who's going to be on him, but he's been pushing the ball up the court when possible, and Korver isn't big enough or fast enough to keep up with him in those situations.  I think Lance has a nice game tonight.  And by the way, I don't know if anyone else watched the game last night...Granger travels on every quick move he makes towards the basket.  Hope they don't start calling that.

I still think the Pacers offense isn't in rhythm, so I'm going to take bets very similar to last night.

Under 188.5, Pacers TT 1h under 48...and of course the OH system with 1h under.

Side Note:
Belexus has pointed out that the OH system seems to work with the Pacers opponent TT, so if you're interested in that...Hawks TT is at 45.5.

GL tonight gents

really appreciate the info i pick up here man. thanks and BOL. 

No problem...good luck to you tonight...gonna be tough with Horford, but 7 is a huge number. 

and that was the right side ATS last night...

It was BARELY the right side.  I was actually thinking about that at the end of the game.  Pacers won by 7, but the Raptors couldn't get their last shot off quick, and there was a long rebound that let George get out and run out the final 10 seconds and the Raptors decided not to foul.  If the rebound was shorter, or the Raptors decided to foul, George could've easily sunk 2 free throws and got the lead to 9.  That would've crushed everyone with 7.5, 8, or 8.5.  I can't imagine the threads on here if that would've happened. 

Lance out tonight...Granger to start.  Wow...didn't see that coming.  Small advantage to the Hawks.  Limits the rotation of the Pacers...big off a back to back.

i think the pacers are going to be out of sorts today due to all that snow in indy.  it takes a lot of energy to shovel snow 

Allen any lean on the side did you agree or disagree on my angle of a messed up line seems way too low?