PACERS THREAD FROM A LOCAL

Nice job Alan. This thread has made me at least $300 alone. Keep it up

Awesome...good thing I only require 12% of your winnings

Alan - been following this thread for a while...great insight you are providing from someone who knows the Pacers better than any of us!  Thanks for the good work.

Just a note that the Bucks usually perform the worst in the 2nd quarter probably because of a thin bench.

I like the Over full game in tonight's game. Eric Lewis is one of the assigned refs. Big public play on the under considering how the Under has been hitting in Pacers games lately.

  Oops-playing the Wizards-nevermind!

Wizards at Pacers

Rest could be an issue for both teams tonight. Pacers have been playing a lot of games the last week...Wizards are playing their 3rd in 4 nights.  Wizards have played good on this road trip.  Beat both the Bobcats and Pelicans.  I know that's not elite competition, but those are road wins...nothing to sneeze at.  Pacers are slumping.  I read an article from the local paper this morning, and the Pacers are definitely feeling it.  Energy seems to be low...frustration is showing.  Paul George talked about how he's being double teamed a lot...he didn't say it, but I know he was thinking "somebody else is going to have to score, please". 

Lance is questionable right now...going to be a game time decision it looks like.  I've been looking a lot at how the Pacers play defense, and there have been several good articles written about it.  What they do is try to contest jump shots, and force guys to dribble into the lane where they meet Hibbert, West, Mahnimi, etc.  Teams have started to not drive nearly as much, and they are shooting a lot of jump shots.  That's preventing a lot of blocks, and quick transition moves for the Pacers...and the other thing is it's creating a lot of long rebounds.  Missed shots are coming over the head of the bigs, and teams are able to rebound a little more than they were at the beginning of the year.  Pacers still playing great defense, but the offense is so bad right now, the great defense is being wasted.

Brings us to the game tonight.  Wizards don't have a good bench.  Fairly unproductive as a whole, so a lot is depending on the starters...which is a plus for the Wizards.  Wall and Beal are quick enough to cause problems against any team.  Pacers included.  Gortat is underrated, and can bang with Hibbert.  Ariza can score, but he also is an underrated defender.  He can't stop Paul George, but he can contest shots and make life difficult.

I'm going to stick with the Pacers struggling on offense and they have 3 days rest after this, so maybe they fix it on their break.  Going to take the Pacers under 48.5 1h.  Also going to take the Wizards +9 for the game.  Wizards have confidence after winning 2 games on the road...I think they keep it close.  Not sure if they have the horses to win straight up, but I don't think a struggling offense like the Pacers should be favored to win by double digits.

Standard Oh system...1h under.

I'll probably miss the 2nd quarter, so I don't know if I'll have a 2h play.  Which is probably a good thing since I've missed the last few 2h plays. 

GL tonight everyone

I've never used a ref as a tool to use in betting, but I've seen your threads.  Pretty amazing over record he's racking up there. 

Love your analysis on the IND/WAS game tonight, I see this thing exactly the same way you do, IND struggling offensively and defensively they are not bringing it like they are capable of. Fatigue likely playing a big factor.

Hey, Alan. Good read. You're really aware about the Pacers. I agree with you on Lance, he is the guy that can pull away the team from the hard moments during the game pointing at some light if the team is in a bad situation. Tough player who doesn't give up of the game. I like to read some good blogs about the Pacers, but many times they talk about numbers/stats a lot... your insight is interesting putting the human side on the process to consider. Truely insider/blogger, I'd say as well. // I made some mistakes managing my bankroll (over extend the bet) and now I'm trying to come back (though, it's being pretty hard to make the [right way] adjustments you've mentioned). I'll be looking at the Totals. This is a crazy league, dificult to predict who will end with the W... Even on moneyline. I'm still a 'roockie' on Gambling and I apreciate your tips. // Are you following any other thread about other team somehow as knowledge (and profitable) as this one you've created? #LetsGoPacers

Thanks for the compliment

I do follow other threads, and I love reading other opinions and getting information.  But to be honest, I set some rules for myself on betting, and they were for personal reasons, but ended up making me a better bettor.

I run a small business here in Indianapolis, and there is a business rule/theory that says pick one thing and do it well.  For years I was trying to bet every sport, every night, and wasn't doing very well.  I was stressing myself out, and wasn't spending as much time on my business and relationship with my girl as I should've.  So I put a cap on all I was betting on.  I limited myself to bet only a few things.  So now I bet on one team in the NBA, I bet NASCAR, MMA and my best sport to bet on is Formula 1 actually.  Occasionally I bet football, and golf and very rarely baseball.  No college stuff.  What ended up happening was my stress level on betting went way down...I spent more time on my business...and more time on my relationship...and all of a sudden I became a much better bettor.  I make way more money betting on only a few things I'm an expert in than I ever did trying to follow every team in every sport and having a bunch of bets going every night.  In my case, Quality became better than Quantity.

I used to try and follow other peoples picks, and some would work and some wouldn't...and there are plenty of good threads that if you follow year round will turn a profit.  The Nascar, Golf, and MMA forums here in Covers have some absolutely fantastic cappers.  Guys who take it serious, and really know their stuff.  And I'm convinced one of the reasons they are so good is because that's all they bet on.  The only threads I will tail picks from is in the MMA and Golf forums.  They make some great picks, and made some great money over the last year.

Bankroll is such a tough thing to figure out.  It seems so easy, but you have to separate emotion from bottom line numbers.  When we lose...it's in our nature to want to get it back.  Most of the time we say "I'm going to get it back right now".  It all changed for me when I finally adopted the mindset of "I'm going to get it back over the course of a year".  I stopped chasing, and didn't get down when I lost.  I go through losing streaks like everyone else, and I've had a couple awful nights betting on the Pacers, and I'm sure there will be a few more, but by not chasing and not trying to get it all back at once, I'm able to keep calm, and just forget about the loss and move on to the next game.

I also believe that the NFL is almost impossible to come out ahead over the course of the year, and it's not worth the stress if you're only winning 53% of the bets, so I stay away from that.  Also the lines in Nascar, Golf, MMA and F1 aren't paid attention to as much by the books as NFL, NBA, College sports, etc so if you're knowledgeable about those "fringe" sports you can actually have the advantage over the house week in and week out.  It's kind of a long story I could've made shorter, but I basically learned that focusing on one team in a sport is more effective than trying to know all teams and bet different teams every night, and that being an expert in the sports that aren't the most popular to bet on can be the most profitable.

Hope this helps in some way. 

I really agree man. I'm from Ohio and I follow the pacers alot. I focus on them and my % on pacer games are high. I agree with ur one team thoughy

Time to get this 1H under... 

Great thread Alan. Your knowledge on pacers and betting is vey wise and smart

Winna...again

Chicken Dinner! I agree with your point  about stressing out and chasing, your just compounding the problem. Simpler is better. Now I can just be selective, patient and follow the system and your thread and KNOW by the end of the week I'll be ahead and have fun rooting for Indy. Thanks for your efforts.

I played the Wiz team total for first half to go under as well as 1H based on this analysis and it's their 3rd game in 4 nights.  Pacers crushed it.

Can we have a 164 game regular season for the Pacers and the Wizards please?  

Well, you were on the right side, and I wasn't. 

Never would've thought the Wizards would be that bad shooting from the field.  Great call on your part.  Glad your bet cashed...sorry your team lost

Golf is a strange sport to bet on.  It's the ultimate long term sport.  If you bet on guys to win straight up, all you need to do is hit 4-5 winner a year to turn a profit.  Problem is you can go 12 weeks or more without hitting a winner so it can be a real grind.  It's just getting started into the main season of betting so you'll see more threads popping up, but Bluefin and MrBogey are a couple of really knowledgeable guys.  They aren't the only good ones, but those guys are great to follow.

With golf you have to be committed or not bet at all.  Some weeks there are cappers that have a great feel for the tournament, and they just crush all the matchups.  Then the next week they can be off a bit.  But long term you can do really well. 

https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/

That's the best golf betting website out there.  They are obviously from Europe, so they make picks based on European books, but the information is unbelievable.  If you're interested in getting into betting golf, playing fantasy golf, or just knowing the sport a little better start there. 

What part of Ohio?  I'm over there frequently for work...