PACERS THREAD FROM A LOCAL

goodluck. i hope so

I am on it thanks Alan

Pacers playing good enough D but Cavs playing stupid O.   Hope George and Grainger keeps playing hard.

Pacers got a big lead and lost focus and let Cavs back in. Looks bad for me.

I played 2nd half

That's the definition of taking your foot off the gas and getting too cute.  Amazing...they gave up a 16-1 run...12 of those points to one guy.  Not totally concerned with the defense, but this offense isn't going good.  No flow, and I think the lack of a concrete rotation right now is part of the problem.  Really frustrating to have them up by 16 points and looking at a 4-0 night...and then fall apart and barely go 2-2.  No excuse to not put up 95 pts on this team.

I have noticed the Pacers tend to hold almost every team to Under their team total by either half every game.  OKC and maybe a Pistons game are the only exceptions.

Will take under 1h even if 87, but I don't think pacers can cover 7 1/2 for game  , Raptors playing hard lately and pacers have lost their spark.

Raptors at Pacers

Pacers haven't been real smooth on offense the last few games, but their defense has been great.  Held the last 8 teams under 91 points.  Travel is going to be an issue for both teams today.  We've had record snow and low temps here in Indy (it f*cking blows...we got 13 inches of snow Sunday...and it was -16 yesterday) and that's affected the Pacers travel from Cleveland, and the Raptors have been on the road since Friday.  Roads and everything are cleared so it should be another sellout for the game.

I've been trying to figure out why the Pacers offense has been stalling, and there's a couple things I noticed.  First off the big thing is that the Pacers aren't dominating the boards.  That leads to tip-ins, more possessions, more shots, more points.  Cavs have outrebounded the Pacers, and the Raptors did it as well.  If the Pacers don't control the boards they struggle.  Second thing is they are obviously trying to get Granger more minutes, so he is coming off the bench and not shooting well right now...and Scola is the only other guy scoring off the bench.  Mahinmi is worthless on offense, and Watson is in a slump.  That leaves most of the scoring up to the starters, and they haven't been shooting lights out either.

Let's move to the Raptors.  Obviously, they've been playing really well recently.  They are moving the ball on offense, they are making outside shots, but the last 4 games they've played really good defense.  Held Chicago to 79, Pacers to 82, Washington to 88...last night they gave up 102 to the Heat, but the Heat shot under 47% from the field, 3-11 from 3 pt...but they went 23-27 from the FT line.  Still a good performance on the road.

As far as the point spread, I do believe the Pacers are looking for a little revenge against this team who beat them last week.  Some people say revenge games are overrated, but NBA players are competitive guys who don't like it when they lose (unless they're in Milwaukee or Sacramento and they're used to it by now ).  Pacers will definitely play hard tonight.  I like both defenses in this game, and I can see a "slug it out" type game.

Injury people don't notice:  Tyler Hansbrough.  If he's out, that takes an active, scrappy big body off the roster for the Raptors.  Last time against the Pacers he played 16 minutes, Hit both the shots he took, made his free throw, had a steal, and 6 rebounds.  He's a guy that can be a pest for opposing teams, and if he's out that's a small advantage for the Pacers.

Going to lay off the line here.  I've missed on the last 2 lines I've picked, so I'm going to stick to the totals.  I think the Raptors +7.5 is probably the right side, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Pacers beat them big.  Also wouldn't be surprised if the Raptors win straight up. 

I'm going to go a little all in on the unders here in this game.  Taking the under 187, Pacers 1h TT under 48.5, and of course the OH system under 1h.

GL tonight guys

Do you mean that in both halves of the game the opposing team scores under the posted total?  Or do you mean that in at least one half the teams scores under the posted total?

hey alan, would you mind explaining a bit of the OH system? ive been lurking in this thread for quite some time now and youve done a great job here. 

I might add that Toronto often starts off the first quarter scoring very strongly. 

Sure...it's pretty simple.  "OH" stands for One Half.  It means taking a defensive team like the Pacers, and betting that at least one half in their games will go under.

So what I do is take 1 unit on the first half under...if it wins, you're done and you're up a unit.  If it loses, take 2 units on the second half under.  If it wins you are up a unit.  If it loses you are out 3 units.  Pacers have played 33 games...If we would've started at the beginning of the season, it would've worked in 31 games.  So we started a couple weeks ago and it hasn't lost yet.

I checked how it works for a bunch of teams with Overs and Unders, and it's pretty interesting.  I'm not a professional bettor, I don't have the time, but if you did this full time and had the time to keep track of 4-5 teams a night, I think you could have a pretty decent return over the course of the season.  Knicks, Bulls, Bobcats are good candidates for the OH system taking the under...Suns and 76ers are good candidates for the OH system taking the over.  However, I did discover that it's easier for the books to increase the Total line as opposed to decrease it which makes the under teams more valuable to this system.

Belexus, you may be correct. It's worked the last 9 games...and looking back on it further, it's only lost 2 times this year for Pacers home games.  It didn't work on the away games on their West Coast trip, but it seems to at home. 

OH system again today Alan? I think Indy shuts down Toronto in the 1H with their bigs bullying them in the paint early. Also like Pacers for the game as well

Yep...OH system tonight.  Also going Pacers TT under 48.5 1h, and 187 under for full game.

Sorry Jager...I didn't quite understand.  Are you asking about the original system, or the trend the Belexus has noticed...

Alan, I am commenting on your system of betting each half under. My thinking is the vegas line accounts for folks doing exactly what you are doing, and it will regress to the "mean". So far it seems it is holding on Pacers home games, but the Under number is one of the lowest on the board. That is, the line is already factoring in the defensive capabilities of the teams involved. So at some point you will eat the juice on 50/50 propositions. 

Totally get what you are saying...I liked the defensive capabilities of the Pacers from the beginning of the year, and this is just a way to bet on that.  I know what you are saying with the lines.  I do keep an eye on the lines, and if the line gets low enough absolutely it won't be worth it.   I do think that some of the value in this system is that a majority of bettors are over bettors.  Line makers make more aggressive adjustments to over teams.  A team like Philadelphia has had their lines move up 15-20 points higher than they were at the beginning of the year.  Pacers haven't seen their lines adjust that aggressively.  The other part of the value is that the Pacers offense can be sloppy at times, and they can have a bad half at any time. 

Somebody brought up trying to chase the under even if it loses 2 halves in a row, but we've all seen what a bad idea "chasing" is. 
I, also believe it's as likely to lost ten bets in a row betting on random games as it is to bet the unders in halves.

Love the comment...appreciate any and all.  Are you going to have a Rockies thread this year?  I don't do much baseball betting...normally just betting against the Astros after the all-star break...which actually can be pretty profitable.  I'd love to follow how you handicap baseball. 

Alan, 

oddsshark.com has fantastic stats.  They show every line, and every O/U for every team from the beginning of year to current.  Great site to go research trends.  Perfect example...Philadelphia first three games O/U 195.5, 201, 195...last 3 games...220, 223, 221

Pacers first 3 games 189.5, 187.5, 188.  Last 3 games 190, 191, 183.5

Lots of movement up for Philly...hardly any movement down for Pacers.  This website is where I went and looked at all the teams in the NBA to see if the OH system would work on other teams and saw how the books move the lines up for the over teams.

That's great about Cook and Francis...lol.  Let me know if you start a Rockies thread.  I love following threads about specific teams. 

Thanks for the site reference, you got it going on more than 99% of the "cappers" here. Diligent note taking will keep you ahead of the curve. Basically no one wants to do the work. And no one has patience. I have lost many a bankroll by turning a twenty five dollar loss into a seven hundred dollar loss in one night. If I had just took the beat, and returned to my game the next day...