PACERS THREAD FROM A LOCAL

Saw several posts from local guys about their teams.  Thought it looked like a good idea so I'll start the Pacers thread.  I've lived in Indianapolis for a long time...I know this team really well.  I won't be betting on them every night, but I do think there will be some good spots for them this year.

Team Overview:
This team is built to win a lot of regular season games.  They had 2 weak spots on this team last year.  Point Guard, and the bench.  Somehow they managed to get rid of basically their entire bench, and replace it with some really good pieces.  They have good depth most of the positions, and IMO I think Copeland was a huge signing.  He's a 6-8 wing player that can shoot 3's...Pacers got him for $3 million.  Vogul is a great coach and will be able to use these pieces to create some big time mismatches against other teams.  He will get the most out of Copeland, Scola, and Lance Stephenson.

Point Guard is still an issue.  George Hill has worked hard in the off-season to be "the guy", but he's too easy to guard.  Bigger guys can disrupt his game, and he still can't penetrate like the good PG's in the league.  This will be the position that will make or break this team in the post-season.

Granger is not the player he was.  He's already out 3 weeks with a calf strain, and he's knee is still an issue.  He might be good for 18-20 minutes a night.  If he plays well at the beginning of the year, look for the Pacers to try and move him for a PG upgrade.

Hibbert has added muscle, and he got off to a bad start last year, but got much better as the year went on last year.  This year I don't think there's a better C, PF combo than Hibbert and West.  They will give every team problems, and I think these 2 guys will be able to dominate most teams at these positions.  Everyone is looking at Paul George to be the exciting wing player that makes all the highlights, but make no mistake about it.  This team goes as Hibbert and West go.  If George takes the next step to elite player, This becomes a really difficult team to guard.

Betting Strategy:
It's going to be difficult to say whether or not this team will be good at covering spreads because I don't know what the public opinion is going to be, and I don't know what their spreads are going to be to start the year.  I look for them to win a lot of games, but I also look for them to not cover some of the big spreads because Vogul will use this bench a lot...there could be a lot of backdoor covers against them.  I'm not going to wager anything on them the first few games because I want to see how their rotation and bench looks.

I do like how they look on defense.  If you're into betting individual team totals I would look at betting Pacers opponents to go under their team total.  Especially on back2back's.  Pacers have depth to keep everyone fresh, and this not going to be a fast paced offense.  Lot of time used on shot clocks.  Lots of low totals.

Total wins:  Hard to predict injuries, but I like this team to get to 62 wins.  Maybe even get to 64 if they stay healthy.

Post-Season:  I think they matchup better against the Heat than they do the Bulls.  I think if they play the Heat in the post-season they can get by them...if they play the bulls (with a healthy Rose, Joakim, etc) I think the Bulls take them out.

If anyone has any questions, let me know.  I probably won't post many specific plays throughout the year, but I'll post local new tidbits, and anything I notice.

GL this year everyone

Wanted to show something in this thread I mentioned above.  I mentioned that I like the Pacers on back to backs because they should be able to be fresh because they have a good rotation.

They played Orlando on Tuesday and didn't have anyone play over 36 minutes.  They had 4 guys on their bench play 15 or more minutes.  The next night they had 4 guys on their bench play 13 or more minutes.  They were down going into the 4th qt, and put up 36 pts in the final quarter to get the win.  This team isn't going to suffer from back to back fatigue like other teams will.  And they don't even have Granger playing yet. 

The line for the second game in the back to back was Pelicans -1.5, and the Pacers were +.  At no time this year should the Pacers be +on back to backs against lesser quality teams.  The other part of the value?  They gave up 87 pts on Tuesday and 90 pts on Wednesday.  Their defense stayed tough both nights.  I think there could be real value on the Pacers in these spots the rest of the year.

GL Gents...hope this helps

Wow, this is some great information and insight on IND  !  Thanks for posting. 

 

No problem. I'll keep doing it throughout the year. I'm going to be playing the Cavs under 90 tonight. Small play. Anytime I can get a Pacers opponent team total 90 or over I'll play the under. If I get that situation I expect it to hit 65-70% of the time this year.

isnt this a better team without granger.  what do they need mr softie for?

They don't NEED  him, but if you can get 20 min a game out of him when he comes back, and he contributes...it's a nice piece coming off the bench.  Also, they are going to want to put him on display as a potential trade for a PG.  He was a legit scorer, but the big knock on him was that he wasn't the locker room leader or the voice of the team.  Now he doesn't have to be.  West, George, Hibbert have all surpassed him in that roll.  He can concentrate on just scoring and that could be a big advantage for the Pacers.  However, it all depends on his health...

That's the kind of D this team will be playing all year. Athletic guys on the perimeter, and big guys clogging the lane. Not gonna be easy to score a lot of points on these guys. Nice hit on the Opposing team total under...there will be lots more of these plays throughout the year.

great post, very refreshing to see some quality posts on this forum. Keep up the great work and I will be tuned into it. I might provide a similar but more limited thread on my lakers. I am a die-hard of 25 years, attend about 20 games a year.

Thanks LK

Gonna be on Pistons under 93. 

great post thanks

Any word on Hill if he's gonna play or not and would you take the pacers over the pistons in tonight's game.

Hill practiced yesterday, and it looks like he's going to try warmups tonight and be a game time decision.

My personal take is that Hill is pretty replaceable on a game to game basis.  He's only averaging 2 assists per game.  They can have George, Lance and CJ Watson bring the ball up the court and I don't see anyone on the Pistons that will disrupt the Pacers flow.  Hill is a decent defender, but he's not the anchor by any stretch.  They would miss him against teams like Miami, Chicago, San Antonio, etc, but not against Detroit.  His absence shouldn't have any affect on this line.

As for who do I like in this game?  Pacers still are integrating their bench into the lineup, and it looks like Detroit is getting healthy, but their lineup is changing as well.  I lean towards the Pacers in this matchup, but Monroe and Drummond can cause some problems.  I believe this game will be close, and I like the Pacers in these close games.  This team is normally mentally tough, but tomorrow night they've got the Bulls at home...could be a game where they are looking ahead to tomorrow.  If I was forced to make a pick, I'd say Pacers, but a small wager. 

On that TT under with you. Good luck bro

Thanks appreciate your response and input

remember when they asked Gary Patten who was the next top point guard coming up was (this was a few years ago) and he said Jamal tensely what was he thinking right

Hill out tonight 

NBCSports...looks like they aren't going to chance it.  My guess is they are saving him for tomorrow nights game.

Alan, what are your thoughts on det under 93? Or is this not a good spot for that

I played it.  Anytime there is a team total on a Pacers opponent that is 90 or above, I'll play the under.  I said above I think I'll hit that bet 65-70% of the time this year. 

So if  maybe there looking ahead of tomorrows game the Pacers Def wont be to agresive and that detroit total team points set in 93 corroborates that.....I like the over today guys...

Thx Alan, Carlos you def may have a point for us looking to wede out the proper spots for this type if play vs riding it. Great info guys thx