Quote Originally Posted by TsikenBreast:
@alan
is it just me, or the pacers have regressed from their terrific play and good ats record since granger was inserted into the system? thats what ive observed though.
They've been struggling, but I don't think it's as much to do with Granger as it is just having a lull and bad streak in the middle of a long season. It happens with all teams. Portland is struggling right now...earlier this year Miami lost 3 out of 5...it just happens.
I'm going to ramble on here, so if you aren't interested in ramblings...now is where to stop. If you're bored and need some reading material...proceed.
Sometimes I think people (and myself included) forget that when elite teams like Indiana, Miami, San Antonio, etc step on the court that on the other side of the court are professional basketball players. Guys that are the top 1/100th of the top 1% of basketball players in the world. And while the top teams have elite talent...and talent that on paper is better than most other teams...all those guys are human, and they have their ups and downs like all of us do. It's what makes gambling really hard, and it's why guys that hit 63% of their bets are seen as the most successful in the industry.
Sometimes when teams are slumping, we can go look at numbers, stats, box scores, body language, coaches, rotations...rack our brains to figure out why a team isn't playing good, and sometimes we can come up with really good answers. Sometimes the answer is as simple as...these guys are human, and they are going through a rough stretch, but they will get it together.
I think that's a little bit of what the Pacers are going through right now. One thing we did learn is that for sure 100% Lance has become the energy source of this team. He's the only guy that has that "craziness" when he has the ball, which is great because he's unpredictable and teams don't know what he's going to do. The Pacers teammates and coach staff don't even know what he's going to do...lol. And that's a plus. When he makes a great play, the team gets excited...the home crowd gets excited...the other team gets down a little bit...and he gives momentum. He dances after great shots. He's everything the Pacers aren't...and it's great for the team. Last night proved how important he is. X's and O's are great...but sometimes a team relies on energy. Just look at last years series Miami vs. Indiana. The best signing last year that is never talked about is when the Heat signed Chris Anderson. He provided toughness (a lot of it dirty, but whatever), an X factor, and energy. I believe he was one of the reasons the Heat beat the Pacers in 7 last year. When he did good, the Heat were unstoppable. Lance is very similar. He's become the source of energy, and like it or not...the Pacers are depending on him.
As far as how to bet teams when they slump...I don't have a great answer, but here's how I go about it. Agree or disagree...I don't think there's a right answer for every situation, but over the years this is what I've noticed. Slumps and streaks are going to happen...and if you ride the wave of slumps and streaks, you're going to get burned at some point. Here's a couple of things I try to keep in mind.
1. Bankroll is key. Don't over extend the bet. Don't put a lot on one bet. Long term, long term, long term.
2. If you're betting a team and they suddenly streak or slump...don't panic. Losing a bet by 24 pts is the same as losing by 1 pt. Don't look at how bad a bet lost...look at why the bet lost. If it lost because a team broke out of a cold streak, adjust. If it lost because of a team just went into a random slump, adjust. Just don't panic.
3. Look at the totals, not the sides. Since the Pacers haven't been playing great, I've been playing the totals. The totals get overlooked a lot. Especially the half totals. If a team isn't playing great offense, maybe they are playing good D...and that can lead to value on the totals. The last few games, I've had success betting on Team Totals and game totals. The sides, I've struggled. If a team is struggling or streaking, instead of trying to predict how much they will win/lose by...try and figure out how many points they will score or allow.
4. Stay away if you're not confident. It's ok to not bet if you're not confident. Professional bettors bet the games they feel great about. Not the games they want to for entertainment.
Anyway, that's my rambling for today. Comment away...I love good discussion.
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