PACERS THREAD FROM A LOCAL

Jazz at Pacers

The Jazz have many issues this year.  Injuries and playing bad on the road are on the top of the list.  They have only won 7 road games this year.  Their last 6 road games they have lost by 20, 8, 17, 22, 15, and 14.  Friday they got humiliated by the Cavs, but they had won 2 straight before that.

The injuries have affected them this year, but they are relatively healthy right now.  All the injuries have affected the chemistry and rotation, so I think there's a real issue with lack of consistency with lineups right now, and that can be really tough on a young team on the road...and the Jazz are in the 2nd game of a 6 game road trip.

The Pacers right now are in an interesting stretch where they are simply trying to figure out where their strongest lineups are now.  It got a little weird last night with George Hill out, but if you didn't see the game, all you needed to see was the last 6 minutes of the game to see what Evan Turner is capable of defensively.  He was on Rondo, and it was a complete lockdown.   Turner disrupted everything in crunch time, and the Celtics could barely even get a shot off...and actually they had 2 shot clock violations in the last few minutes.  George Hill was already a great PG defender, and
Turner now gives them another defensive option.  Turner also chipped in 17 points last night, and I know it's early, but it is already looking to me like the Granger trade really helped the Pacers more than initially thought.

As for the game tonight, the OH system is on hiatus until they show more consistency on defense, but what the Pacers have showed is that they like scoring points now.  Since the All-Star break they've scored over 100 points every time, and that's what the Pacers TT is right now...100.  I think that's where the only value is in this game.  The Pacers are not covering spreads with any consistency, and they aren't playing defense for 60 minutes like they used to. 

The spread is moving down, and the total is going up so if you have a specific play in mind, I'd keep an eye on the movement.  I'm going to put a little on the Pacers over 100 pts.

GL today everyone

Totally forgot to do a writeup yesterday, but got inspired last night by seeing Jermaine O'Neal playing basketball in Indianapolis.

Earlier this year I wrote about how Gordon Heyward and Brad Stevens came to be in the NBA, and wasn't sure how people would react since it wasn't gambling related, but I got a lot of nice feedback, and there's been something I've wanted to write up for a while, so here goes.  Again, there's no gambling advice, or picks in this, it's purely for entertainment.

I'm a big believer in the butterfly effect.  Here's the definition.  In chaos theory, the butterfly effect is the sensitive dependency on initial conditions in which a small change at one place in a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences in a later state.

It basically says that one small thing can have a big impact on future events.  I'm going to show how 6 inches changed the NBA.

And yes this is from the Pacers perspective.

To understand this story, here's a quick recap of how we got to a certain point.  The Pacers fans wanted to draft Steve Alford, and instead the Pacers drafted Reggie Miller.  Indianapolis is a weird city.  It's a fair-weathered fan base who claims it doesn't like stars.  Incorrect.  They like stars...only they like THEIR stars.  Stars that are elite, likeable, and seem to be like one of them. (Peyton Manning being the obvious one)  Reggie Miller was all of that.  The city embraced him, and because of that the city embraced the guys playing with him in the 90's (Rik Smits, Dale Davie, Antonio Davis, etc.)

In 2000 the Pacers were coming off an appearance in the finals, and surprised a lot of people by trading for an underperforming Jermain O'Neal from the Blazers.  What was tough for O'Neal was that he was traded for a beloved Dale Davis, and fans had a tough time with that.  Pacer fan favorites like Mark Jackson, Rik Smits, and Chris Mullin also left, and Indiana legend Larry Bird stepped down as coach.  The only guy left behind from the Pacers lovable stars was Reggie Miller, and the Pacers wanted O"Neal to take over for him.

O'Neal shined, and become Most Improved player in 2001-2002.  Not only was he better than he was in Portland, he was beoming elite.  In 2002-2003 he was averaging 21-10 on a team that didn't score a ton of points, and he was a defensive force.  I don't think people remember how unbelievable he was, especially on defense.  In the 2003-2004 season I could see how close the Pacers were to winning a championship, and everyone could also see Reggie Miller getting ready to pass the torch to O'Neal.  But Pacers fans weren't ready for that.  They were still holding on to Reggie Miller as their guy, and Indiana fans don't like change.  People still wear Colts Peyton Manning jerseys here to games...no joke.

People forget Brad Miller played on the Pacers, and got there when the Bulls traded him and Artest for Jalen Rose, and others.  Miller left the next year, but Artest stayed and was playing great ball with O'Neal and Miller.  Going into the 2004 season the Pacers traded Al Harrington to the Hawks for Stephen Jackson, and Jamaal Tinsely was growing. 

Surely, everyone can see where this is going.

The Pacers started off the 2004-2005 season playing well, and I remember watching them.  People forget the Pacers were beating teams, and Reggie Miller wasn't even playing!  He broke his hand in the preseason.  Austin Croshere was a starter, and the Pacers were winning.  O'Neal, Stephen Jackson, Ron Artest, and Jamaal Tinsely were an unbelievable force.  I loved watching them play, but there was always an uncomfortable feeling towards them from the fans.  Artest was crazy, and even more crazy than people knew about.  I was with one of his friends while we were driving around shooting a music video, and we ended up stopping by one of his houses.  He wasn't there, but the house was in this really nice part of town, and there were aunts, uncles, cousins, and kids running around, looking less than rural we'll just say.  It was an odd scene that only Artest could bring to the city.  I'll be polite and say the neighbors weren't fond of the Artest family's presence in the neighborhood.

Jermaine O'Neal was unstoppable.  He could shoot, post-up, block shots, rebound...the dude was on his way to being one the all time greats IMO.  His post up game was so polished.  He could back down guys smaller than him, or he could take his game outside against bigger smaller guys.  He owned the paint.  He had a similar presence to what Hibbert has now, but O'Neal was way more athletic.  However, I never felt the city embraced him.  Yeah, they liked him because they were winning, but they didn't love him.  Reggie Miller loved the city.  Jermain O'Neal opened a massive night club in an area called Broad Ripple so he and his buddies had a place to party.  It's a big row of bars and local businesses.  It's a mostly college party place where you'll find Butler students, IU, Ball State, Purdue recent graduates.  O'Neal named it 7...after his jersey number.  My buddy had a nightclub in that building for 9 years before and it was a dance club, house music, mostly white crowd in a mostly white area.  O'Neal opened a personal hip-hop club there and him and Tinsely and company would roll up, not talk to people, and play the VIP superstar roll.  It didn't sit well with fans.  I even remember seeing them in that area, and they just stuck out.  Nobody interracted with them, nobody wanted their autograph, they didn't talk to anybody...it was just very strange to see local sports stars not embraced like they were.

Stephen Jackson had these braids that Indianapolis people associated with thugs.  Artest was weird, O'Neal and Tinsely were off in their own little world...and they were playing with Austin Croshere.  It was actually funny to watch, but they were winning.  Then came the infamous game at Detroit.  Detroit were defending champs, and people forget that the Pacers were crushing the Pistons on their own floor.  I watched that game.  The Pacers were superior, and Reggie Miller wasn't even playing.  I remember thinking that the Pacers were going to win the championship that year.  They had stars, a bench, and toughness.  Man, were they good.

Here's where the 6 inches comes in.

Artest fouled Ben Wallace at the end of the game.  Wallace reacted by pushing Artest.  I've watched that brawl a million times.  Wallace overreacted like a baby, and there's no debate.  I still can't stand him for that.  So the Pacers, and Pistons push around, and everything calms down.  Artest goes and lays down on the scorers table, and then it happens.  A fan lobs a beer at Artest, Artest doesn't see it...but it hits Artest.  6 inches to the left Artest probably doesn't even notice.  6 inches to the right Artest probably doesn't notice.  6 inches.  It hits Artest, and the rest is history.  A championship caliber team is blown up, and becomes a blip on the radar of history...all because Ben Wallace got his panties in a bunch...and one fan lobbed a beer perfectly onto Artest...a lob he probably misses 5 out of 10 times.  6 inches.

Obviously, we will never know, but for fun let's say the beer lob misses and the Pacers go on as normal.  I think they would've cake-walked to the finals where they would've played a Spurs team that played the same tough defense the Pacers did.  Let's say the Pacers win that series.  Reggie Miller now has his championship.  How much does that change his legacy?  The Pacers were in a position to return everyone after that season, maybe even Miller comes back to try and repeat.  Spurs lose...how much does that change Duncan's legacy?  Popovich's legacy?

So what did actually happen from that brawl?  Artest went off the deep end the next year, barely played and demanded a trade.  He lost a couple of prime years off his career, and when that guy wanted to play defense, there was nobody better.  Also, don't forget Artest ended up on the Lakers, and was a massive part of their 2010 championship team.  Phil Jackson said Artest was MVP of game 7.  He scored 20 points, and hit the big shot at the end, and that doesn't even take into account the defense he brought to that team.  He also hit a game winning shot in the Western Conference finals, and scored 25 in game 6 against the Suns.  What if he didn't play on that Lakers team?  How many legacies change if the Lakers don't win that Championship?  How many legacies are enhanced if someone else wins...like the Celtics who lost in game 7 because of Artest?

After the brawl, the fans in Indianapolis hated those guys.  They always thought they were thugs, and now they had the proof.  They didn't help the image by getting in shootouts outside a strip club, and a brawl at a nightclub.  By the way, I have associates at that nightclub.  It never saw the light of day, but there's video of that brawl.  Let's just say the case was pretty cut and dry that the Pacers players were in the wrong.

So does the brawl still have an impact on the Pacers today?  It does every game.  O'Neal had injury problems, but I think he wasn't interested in playing for the Pacers because of the fans, and how he felt that Artest turned his back on the team, and I couldn't blame him.  When your mind isn't in it, your body sometimes isn't as well.  One thing that really bothers me in life is when I see elite talent not fulfill it's potential, and it broke my heart to watch O'Neal go from an unstoppable force to an injury ridden, unliked player by the fan base.  So he was traded...for a player deemed a project by the name of Roy Hibbert.  After the brawl, the Pacers got a decent pick and Granger fell to them.  All because of the brawl.  To try and get the fan base back, the Pacers started drafting "good guys".  Not too many worked, but because of some of those missed picks, they were in a position to draft Paul George, a guy that may finally be able to take the place of Reggie Miller in the fans minds.

So everytime Hibbert, Paul George, or Evan Turner makes a play it's related to the brawl.  If they win a championship this year or next year, it's related to the brawl. 

But what I'll always remember is a team that was built for many championship runs full of elite talent.  Guys that just wanted to play ball and be left alone, but were never embraced by the fans.  Jermaine O'Neal on the verge of becoming an all time great player in NBA history.  Reggie Miller's chance to add a championship to his legacy.  All of it gone in the blink of an eye...

All because of 6 inches.

Hope it's a good read for everyone.  Let me know what you think. 

Awesome read -- thank you!

Man i really think you should read some oriental-buddhism books:It's the kharma you are talking about.

pacers are a big let down.  they have the talent to run away with the #1 seed in the east, but lately they are turning into the miami heat.  they give the least effort possible and hope to win it close at the end of the game.  the heat have been my most hated team because watching them over the last few years is pathetic.  some nights they try, others they don't.  they got so unbelievably lucky to beat the spurs last year in game 6.  i felt ill watching them raise the trophy again.  this season, i was sure that the pacers would take them down and stomp on them, take no prisoners and seize the home court advantage.  in the last 3 weeks, they have lost to the magic and wolves on the road, mavs and warriors at home.  they had a 4 game lead in the loss column, now it is down to just 1.  assuming the heat will lose 2 of 3 on their texas trip, this is the pacers chance to pad their lead a bit.  today, i am taking a prop bet on pacers/spurs finals at +1200.  let's go pacers, step it up!!

Granger should have never been drafted by the Pacers. 

Wildcat -- While Pacers/Spurs would make an excellent finals I think you will see the grotesque 3peat this year

the pacers don't have the luxury to turn it on and off when they want they haven't won anything were as the heat have won 2 champ. in a row. The way the pacers have been playing the last 2 months should be a concern they just don't play defense like they have in the past to get them into the conversation of beating the heat. They are not the same team they might not make into the conf finals but prob. will because the east is so bad but if they do there is no way they will beat the heat............. impossible ......heat in 6

Thanks man...appreciate the comment!

I know that stuff very well actually...my girl is a reiki master believe it or not. 

My thoughts too, Wildcat.  Pacers used to play great D, now instead try to out score like everybody else, problem is they don't have a go to guy like the Heat. I think the Pacers will find out one day you'll try to flip the switch and nothing happens.

Larry Bird was shocked when Granger fell to him.  It's amazing to see how many teams missed on that draft.  Listen to these names drafted before Granger.  Joey Graham, Antoine Wright, Rashad McCants, Sean May, Yaroslav Korolev, Fran Vazquez, Ike Diogu, Martell Webster.  All taken before Granger.  Amazing. 

Wildcat-Broker-Newpacerfan

Pacers are going through a slump right now.  It happens to all teams.  They are a little beat up right now, and I get the feeling they are letting up a bit on the defensive end.  Make no mistake about it...the Pacers and Heat are waiting for the playoffs to bang it out in the finals.  Lebron drops 61 against Charlotte and everyone loses their mind...they they lose straight up to Houston and nobody talks about it.  Teams see the Heat and Pacers on the schedule and they get amped up sometimes and play their best game they've played in a while.  Pacers are still 46-14...they will be fine come playoff time.  They just need a bit more time to get used to their roster post-Granger.

love string theory... love basketball writeups, what a beautiful marriage that post was!

Thanks man...glad to hear you enjoyed it!  I never know what reactions I'll get

I was beside myself when they did this, and I'm glad somebody else noticed.

Nobody has explained this, nobody has talked about it, but it's insane this is possible.  An above average player gets traded in a legal trade.  A team openly tanking buys him out for peanuts, and all of a sudden he gets to play for a championship contender for way less money than the original team that traded him.  And how come no other team has chimed in saying this is bullsh*t?  If I'm a team like the Thunder, Spurs, Grizzlies, etc. I'm throwing a fit wondering how the Clippers can get a guy that caliber for little of a salary. 

And what happens to the 76ers for pulling this off?  Nothing...just nothing...they can go about their business putting a D-league team on the court to get blown out to get a top draft pick.  Unbelievable.

Glad you brought it up Scalabrine

By the way, Pacers 2h -5 against the Cats could be mighty tasty

Well I'll say this. The biggest buyout pick-up IMO was granger. He can easily be a starter. If the Clippers knock off the Thunder and get to the finals, and worse, if they win it with Granger playing a large roll, there will be enough of an uproar that they will change the rule.

Ya don't toss a guy like granger to the curb like he's an empty beer can. Matter of fact, Granger could have played a significant and affordable role in the Sixers rebuilding process. Guess they saw otherwise as they find the need to tank so bad they get demolished even when getting spotted +21 by the books.

Did anyone ever hear of 'making it look convincing' while throwing a game like in pool hustling? For god's sake, the whole Sixers franchise should watch the Color of Money DVD for lessons on this topic.

Great read Alan. Always appreciate your thoughts 

Pacers at Rockets

Pacers are definitely reeling right now, and Houston looks great.  The last time these two teams played I said the Pacers would disrupt the Rockets high pick and roll offense, and they did.  However, the Rockets are playing really good and they are getting different contributions than they were earlier this year, in particular Terrance Jones. 

You also have to be unimpressed with what the Pacers have been doing recently.  I've looked at the stats, and there's not really anything that jumps out, but when I watch the games I see 5 individuals running around and not a team.  It's a weird situation because this team prides itself on playing as a team, but that hasn't been the case.  I don't know if they are still bothered by the Granger trade, if it's midseason fatigue, or if it's something else, but this a tough spot for bettors.

I don't see any personnel issues, but the national media and public don't realize that the Pacers are a little banged up, and it shows.  George Hill is banged up, Paul George is hurt (I think he's hurt more than he's letting on, and a game of rest for him might not be the worse thing in the world), and I really think the bench is playing worse and worse.  Turner has been good at times, but the bench used to be a big advantage for the Pacers, and now it's almost becoming a hinderance (especially Mahinmi on the offensive end.

Basically, when betting the Pacers now you have to figure out if they are suddenly going to play better, or if they are going to continue slumping.  This slump won't last forever, but there aren't any signs that it's getting better.  I'm still in the boat of staying away from betting Pacers games, but if there is a bet that has value I think it's the Rockets TT over 103.  They've scored 106, 118, 113, 122, 106.  They are rested, and they are on a roll, and the Pacers are turning the ball over a ton lately, and that plays right into the hands of the Rockets.

Don't know if this helps anyone or not...as a Pacers fan I'm hoping they get out of this slump quick, but as a bettor I'm not feeling that good about backing them.