Posted:
#476
Can pacers pull this one off? Need them to win by 2.
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PACERS THREAD FROM A LOCAL
Posted:
#479
Went back and looked at some things from last nights game, and got a few takewaways. Don't know if this helps anyone, but I like to look at why I lost some bets and see if I made any mistakes with the picks.
I watched the whole game so I didn't miss anything. The game went exactly like the Pacers wanted it to in the first half. Up 2, low scoring, Raptors getting overwhelmed. The number 1 factor of the game was Hibbert in foul trouble. When he was in the game, they couldn't stop him. When he was out, the Raptors had the rebounding edge by just outworking the Pacers.
I haven't seen this in a while, but the Pacers players were noticeably bothered by the refs, and every time a bad call went against them, you could see their body language change. Normally when there's a bad call against them Vogel complains for a minute, and then drops it. The players normally don't show any frustration, but last night they let it bother them.
I was right about the Raptors having to shoot a lot of jumpers, and they did shoot a ton of jumpers, they just hit a lot. It's a dangerous game to play depending on your guards to hit jumpers, but they did it. Their backcourt certainly has been playing well, but I was surprised they hit the % the did.
Last thing that I didn't see coming was Paul George was a disaster last night. Didn't get in a flow, shot was off, and had a ridiculous 6 turnovers. This was the big problem with the team last year, and it's happening over and over again...the turnovers. I don't know what the fix is, but throwing the ball out of bounds, getting the ball stolen, bad entry passes...that's a great way to lose games.
After thinking about it, I don't regret any of the plays yesterday. Pacers were the superior team in the first half, but just had one of those halves to forget. Paul George was unpredictably off, Hibbert was in unpredictable foul trouble...I think the picks were good, and I don't think this was a "trap" as some people have said. If George is normal, and Hibbert plays his normal minutes Pacers win by 10. Oh well, time to move on.
Off Topic Notes
I've reffed basketball for about 15 years, and the one call I absolutely despise is where a guy has the ball on offense, gets by his defender and a secondary defender jumps in just before the offensive player leaves his feet to shoot it or dribble it and it's a charge on the offensive player. This is the classic Shane Battier play. The secondary defender has zero chance to make a play on the ball, he just does it to try and get a charge. It's basically punishing the offensive player after he's gotten by his primary defender, and these guys are so big it's impossible for them to stop. I really wish they would change this rule. That call has always felt really cheap, and it's a reward for the defense that they really didn't earn. It happened again last night when Hibbert got by the defender and one of the guards jumped in right at the last minute and got the charge call. Hibbert had no chance of stopping, he had beaten his defender and the guard that jumped in had no chance of blocking the shot, or making a defensive play. Every time I see it happen to any player on any team, it drives me nuts.
Worse local broadcasters:
I used to really like the local Pacers commentators, but the guys doing it now are pretty terrible. When I hear them talk, I swear I have more inside information than they do. Every foul against the Pacers is a "bad call"...every foul against the other team is a great call. I was wondering if there's anything out there about who's got the worse local commentating? It sounds odd, but I love hearing stories about bad local commentating. If anyone has any, i'd love to hear them.
I watched the whole game so I didn't miss anything. The game went exactly like the Pacers wanted it to in the first half. Up 2, low scoring, Raptors getting overwhelmed. The number 1 factor of the game was Hibbert in foul trouble. When he was in the game, they couldn't stop him. When he was out, the Raptors had the rebounding edge by just outworking the Pacers.
I haven't seen this in a while, but the Pacers players were noticeably bothered by the refs, and every time a bad call went against them, you could see their body language change. Normally when there's a bad call against them Vogel complains for a minute, and then drops it. The players normally don't show any frustration, but last night they let it bother them.
I was right about the Raptors having to shoot a lot of jumpers, and they did shoot a ton of jumpers, they just hit a lot. It's a dangerous game to play depending on your guards to hit jumpers, but they did it. Their backcourt certainly has been playing well, but I was surprised they hit the % the did.
Last thing that I didn't see coming was Paul George was a disaster last night. Didn't get in a flow, shot was off, and had a ridiculous 6 turnovers. This was the big problem with the team last year, and it's happening over and over again...the turnovers. I don't know what the fix is, but throwing the ball out of bounds, getting the ball stolen, bad entry passes...that's a great way to lose games.
After thinking about it, I don't regret any of the plays yesterday. Pacers were the superior team in the first half, but just had one of those halves to forget. Paul George was unpredictably off, Hibbert was in unpredictable foul trouble...I think the picks were good, and I don't think this was a "trap" as some people have said. If George is normal, and Hibbert plays his normal minutes Pacers win by 10. Oh well, time to move on.
Off Topic Notes
I've reffed basketball for about 15 years, and the one call I absolutely despise is where a guy has the ball on offense, gets by his defender and a secondary defender jumps in just before the offensive player leaves his feet to shoot it or dribble it and it's a charge on the offensive player. This is the classic Shane Battier play. The secondary defender has zero chance to make a play on the ball, he just does it to try and get a charge. It's basically punishing the offensive player after he's gotten by his primary defender, and these guys are so big it's impossible for them to stop. I really wish they would change this rule. That call has always felt really cheap, and it's a reward for the defense that they really didn't earn. It happened again last night when Hibbert got by the defender and one of the guards jumped in right at the last minute and got the charge call. Hibbert had no chance of stopping, he had beaten his defender and the guard that jumped in had no chance of blocking the shot, or making a defensive play. Every time I see it happen to any player on any team, it drives me nuts.
Worse local broadcasters:
I used to really like the local Pacers commentators, but the guys doing it now are pretty terrible. When I hear them talk, I swear I have more inside information than they do. Every foul against the Pacers is a "bad call"...every foul against the other team is a great call. I was wondering if there's anything out there about who's got the worse local commentating? It sounds odd, but I love hearing stories about bad local commentating. If anyone has any, i'd love to hear them.
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Posted:
#480
Pelicans at Pacers
Interesting situation here...Colts play at Lucas Oil Stadium at 4...Pacers play at the Fieldhouse at 7. Gotta believe attendance is going to be awful at this game with all eyes on the Colts game.
Tough to get a read on the Pelicans right now...barely beat the Celtics, lost to the TWolves, beat the Blazers, etc. However, I do like this team and with Davis healthy and contributing, they can compete with most teams.
I thought it interesting what they did with Davis against the Wolves. They put Davis on Love and Love struggled, but the other big man had a monster game and Pelicans lost in a shootout. They can put up points, but last night Ryan Anderson got hurt, and he's a big part of what they can do. I like what Evans and Gordon can do, but the Pacers (Hill and Stephenson in particular) have been playing great defense on the perimeter lately.
Pacers should be looking to get back on track after a bad loss at Toronto, but they've struggled to put teams away early at home, and even though they cover the spread, I think the first half stays close. I like the Pelicans starting lineup, and I think they've got enough firepower to keep in close in the first half.
Pelicans +6.5 1h, and standard OH system 1h under.
Interesting situation here...Colts play at Lucas Oil Stadium at 4...Pacers play at the Fieldhouse at 7. Gotta believe attendance is going to be awful at this game with all eyes on the Colts game.
Tough to get a read on the Pelicans right now...barely beat the Celtics, lost to the TWolves, beat the Blazers, etc. However, I do like this team and with Davis healthy and contributing, they can compete with most teams.
I thought it interesting what they did with Davis against the Wolves. They put Davis on Love and Love struggled, but the other big man had a monster game and Pelicans lost in a shootout. They can put up points, but last night Ryan Anderson got hurt, and he's a big part of what they can do. I like what Evans and Gordon can do, but the Pacers (Hill and Stephenson in particular) have been playing great defense on the perimeter lately.
Pacers should be looking to get back on track after a bad loss at Toronto, but they've struggled to put teams away early at home, and even though they cover the spread, I think the first half stays close. I like the Pelicans starting lineup, and I think they've got enough firepower to keep in close in the first half.
Pelicans +6.5 1h, and standard OH system 1h under.
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Posted:
#491
The timing of the 2h bets with the Colts game was bad...lot of emotion with the Colts pulling it out...I went conservative and decided to lay off the 2h bet because I wanted to make sure I was thinking right. The other thing was I didn't watch much of the first half, so I wasn't sure how the game flow was going. I'm kicking myself for not taking the Pacers, but I certainly didn't see the Pelicans playing that good the first half, and then laying a complete egg the second half.
Good news is the Pacers starters got some good rest tonight and they play a Cleveland team they've played several times this year. Could be some good value...can't wait to see the lines.
Good news is the Pacers starters got some good rest tonight and they play a Cleveland team they've played several times this year. Could be some good value...can't wait to see the lines.
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Posted:
#492
Pacers at Cavs
No word on Kyrie Irving yet, but I'm assuming he won't play. Didn't travel with the team to Brooklyn last night, and they have been open about not wanting to risk anything with him, and any type of bruise/knee injury isn't anything you want to mess with. Even if he does come back, I can't imagine he's going to be at 100%. So I'm capping this game as if there is little to no Kyrie involvement.
Love the Pacers -8.5 here. Both teams on back to backs...Pacers used a lot of energy in the 3rd quarter, but then had little energy used to finish out the game. West didn't play 30 minutes which is good for him on back to backs. Cleveland has been lost on offense without Kyrie...scored 82 last night against Brooklyn...and 87 against Orlando and they needed OT.
Normally we have to take a home court advantage into account, but the weather calls for freezing rain and snow tonight...low visiability...drifting snow...dangerous roads. I can't imagine a big crowd going to that game especially if Kyrie is out. Attendance will probably be bad which should lower the energy level for the home team.
I like the Pacers -8.5 in this spot...Cavs TT under 89.5...and of course it goes without saying the OH system is in effect 1h under.
Side Note: I've been a complete joke at player props, but I'm looking at taking Hibbert and the under over the next few weeks. He hasn't been rebounding as much, and they aren't using him in the offense nearly as much. Paul George, and Lance are scoring a lot as is West. Hibbert is getting his points off of offensive rebounds, and he's concentrating more on defense. And his minutes come down when they get up big because Mahnimi and Scola are more than capable to play. I may try it a bit over the next couple weeks and post them so we can keep track of the success...or failure
No word on Kyrie Irving yet, but I'm assuming he won't play. Didn't travel with the team to Brooklyn last night, and they have been open about not wanting to risk anything with him, and any type of bruise/knee injury isn't anything you want to mess with. Even if he does come back, I can't imagine he's going to be at 100%. So I'm capping this game as if there is little to no Kyrie involvement.
Love the Pacers -8.5 here. Both teams on back to backs...Pacers used a lot of energy in the 3rd quarter, but then had little energy used to finish out the game. West didn't play 30 minutes which is good for him on back to backs. Cleveland has been lost on offense without Kyrie...scored 82 last night against Brooklyn...and 87 against Orlando and they needed OT.
Normally we have to take a home court advantage into account, but the weather calls for freezing rain and snow tonight...low visiability...drifting snow...dangerous roads. I can't imagine a big crowd going to that game especially if Kyrie is out. Attendance will probably be bad which should lower the energy level for the home team.
I like the Pacers -8.5 in this spot...Cavs TT under 89.5...and of course it goes without saying the OH system is in effect 1h under.
Side Note: I've been a complete joke at player props, but I'm looking at taking Hibbert and the under over the next few weeks. He hasn't been rebounding as much, and they aren't using him in the offense nearly as much. Paul George, and Lance are scoring a lot as is West. Hibbert is getting his points off of offensive rebounds, and he's concentrating more on defense. And his minutes come down when they get up big because Mahnimi and Scola are more than capable to play. I may try it a bit over the next couple weeks and post them so we can keep track of the success...or failure
0
Posted:
#494
Quote Originally Posted by noles252:
Alan was curios how the OH system is working on back to backs?
Alan was curios how the OH system is working on back to backs?
9 back to back situations for the Pacers...I looked back at all of them, and the only one I can see that it didn't work on was the Bulls game where DRose went off. I can't find exact numbers on the halves on the 76ers game in Indianapolis, but that was the only other one that was close. So its worked 8 out of 9 times...maybe 7 out of 9 times depending on the Philly game. Since I discovered the system, it's worked every Pacers game. Obviously, that won't last the entire year, but the theory behind it was if you do it all year long, you'll be ahead. Long term system to utilize all season long.
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Posted:
#497
The Sixers@Pacers game you guys were talking about happened on November/23th... the total on 1H was 108pts (PHI52X56IND). So, the system worked 7 out of 9 times on Pacers back-to-back games, accordingly with Alan's track (on these situations) . [On November/22th Pacers played the Celtics at BLF/Indy and the 1H total was 92pts]
.
For today, my sportsbook is offering 93.5 as 1H total... I think it will be close, but I'm playing UNDER (by the system) again. // I'm planning to study the last Sixers games, it think they went OVER the total a lot of times, but I'm not sure of that.
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Posted:
#498
e: Originally Posted by jfmachado16]
The Sixers@Pacers game you guys were talking about happened on November/23th... the total on 1H was 108pts (PHI52X56IND). So, the system worked 7 out of 9 times on Pacers back-to-back games, accordingly with Alan's track (on these situations) . [On November/22th Pacers played the Celtics at BLF/Indy and the 1H total was 92pts]
.
For today, my sportsbook is offering 93.5 as 1H total... I think it will be close, but I'm playing UNDER (by the system) again. // I'm planning to study the last Sixers games, it think they went OVER the total a lot of times, but I'm not sure of that.
[/Quote]Thanks and I think if you read back on earlier post in this forum I think you will find philly goes over. Lot in first half. But double check me.
0
Posted:
#499
Yeah. I've read this thread entirely and I remember someone mentioned that, but I'm just double checking indeed. I hope I can post something usefull here, maybe about other team (maybe Warriors). I think this Topic is one of the bests here on Covers in this moment 'cause most of the guys here post trends and opinions. There are a lot of topics out there just posting bets/picks singly (or complaining about losses), I mean, without any analysis... (I think this kind of thing is far from productive).... 'till there, I'm continuing betting just on Pacers games (Pacers is my favorite team as well)
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Posted:
#500
Cavs a mess...Kyrie out and Jarett Jack a surprise out. No leaders on offense right now and most of their points have been lucky or contested jumpers.
Wicked chance at a middle on Cavs TT. OU is at 43 for 2h...that's a 13 point middle chance. Gonna lay off it thought...not sure how they are going to score.
Taking a bit on Pacers -3...think they pull away comfortably.
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