I didn't see the game last night but did follow the score online. The way Mavs were hanging in, staying close, Wolves couldn't pull away even a small amount I was thinking oh boy, here we go, Mavs hit a 3 late and win this game. Of course I'm always paranoid as I know in this league anything can happen especially when you have players like Doncic and Kyrie.
Well, there goes my +1400 futures on Wolves to win the West. I doubt they come back again like they did VS Nuggets. I do think they get game 3 though. They'll make adjustments like teams almost always do. And players will shoot better and Mavs may shoot worse. Shooting almost always fluctuates.
MY LINES ........................................
we give 4 additional desperation pts to teams down 0-2.
Celtics -.44 over Pacers
even with Haliburton out my line would still favor Pacers. How many pts is Haliburton worth ? 3 or 4 pts at most ? Even 5 pts with line +6.5 or more favors Pacers
in conf final ......................2007 through 2016
off a SU loss --- 17-7 ATS
off SU loss --- 17-6 ATS
trailing in the series --- 16-8 ATS
trailing by 2 games or more in the series --- 9-2 ATS (82%)
with 2.5 diff between my line and closing line --- 38-21 ATS
we have to remember this through 2016, things could be different today.
Teams that win the series generally will cover the spread in back-to-back games at some point. Celtics didn't do that VS Cavs last round. I doubt we see that again this round. The only way Celtics could cover back-to-back is if the lose SU in game 3 or they cover game 3. If they lose SU game 3 then they could win and cover game 4 and 5.
I think a decent possibility Celtics win and cover so I'll pass on this game.
One of the rare times I won't play the info I posted, I hope I'm not kicking myself for it later.
If you blindly play that info, it has never finished with a losing ATS record 2007 through 2016. Could be a different story 2017 through 2023 though and partly a reason I pass game 3. So far record is 1-1 ATS but game 1 Celtics with a 2.5 diff but with KP out even if we give only .5 pts for him it would be no longer a 2.5 diff. I will count the loss and track the record, play according to the info is on Pacers unless line drops quite a bit, not likely. Will count this play on Pacers for the info but pass on the game myself.
MY LINES ....................................................
Twolves -1.99 over Mavs................. before Towns injury
Twolves -1.16 over Mavs
in conf final 2007 through 2016..........................
off SU loss --- 17-7 ATS
off ATS loss --- 17-6 ATS
trailing in the series ---16-8 ATS
2.5 pt diff to closing line --- 38-21 ATS
trailing by 2 games or more in series --- 9-2 ATS
this info won last night so now 2-1 ATS although I did pass on the game.
My line has Twolves the fav, I have info on this when a dog is the favorite according to my line it has a very good record on the ML but the team needs to be favored by so much, I'm not sure how much that is. I'll see if I can find this before game time.
I also have info on this spot if my line has a certain diff it has a great ATS record, I want to say it is 4 pts or maybe 4.5 pts. This might of applied to Pacers but with injuries that game was more subjective to how many pts players are worth might have put it very close which I wouldn't make a play if that were the case. If I can find it I'll post it later.
Twolves is the right play in this spot, 9-2 ATS is a crazy record when trailing by 2 games or more. Would love to see 2017 through 2023 for sure.
Twolves -2 over Mavs--- 1.1 units
should of grabbed the 3, hopefully it won't matter, hasn't yet but eventually it more then likely will.
With all the media pumping up ANT, as I pointed out Ant's Player Efficiency Rating in the regular season was 19.7, nothing special, a good solid player. In playoffs he was over 25 then he went over 27 then he moved up into greatness at over 29 but all players will at some point have strong moments, we shouldn't get too excited until we see if they can sustain those moments.
Well, Ant could not, he now has fall 'in to 23 but playing over his 19.7 in regular season.
The 2 players not playing up to regular season are Gobert (down 2.2) who has a history of under preforming his regular season and Conley (down 2.1). MC Daniels is up 4.9, Towns up like .5 and Reid up about .5
Now I see some love for Doncic, he is all-world in the 4th quarter.
PER in regular season 28.1, sensational.
in playoffs 21.2, oh boy what a fall. Will he bounce back or just not the same in playoffs ?
Doncic does have a history of playing better in playoffs then regular season other then his first time in playoffs, down .5, not much and considering his1st playoffs. Maybe he has more help, maybe he heard the rumblings about his ball hogging that were going around, it will be something to watch if he plays much better in PER and whether the team won or lost those games
What I see, the big difference makers for Mavs is Lively and Gafford. They were 8th and 9th in minutes played in regular season but in playoffs they are 5th and 6th they have the 2cd and 3rd best PER and the 1st and 2cd best win shares per 48minutes of all the players over 20 minutes played per game.
My Lines ...................... game 4
Mavs - 2.84 over Twolves
Mavs -2.01 over Twolves
My Line is about spot on with actual line. But Mavs off 3 SU & ATS wins a very bad spot for Mavs.
Game 4 closeout game, closeout games in game 4 or 5 are not the best to play the team to close it out. 3-3-1 ATS depending what line you got Celtics VS Cavs, covers has a Celtics loss but one could of got a push.
Celtics lost in this spot last night.
Doncic and Kyrie combined 9 of 18 and 8 of 17 on 3's past 2 games and shooting combined 69 % in 3's in series in the 4th, and it was all Mavs could do to win those 2 games.
play is on Twolves, very possible Twolves win the next 2 games
Twolves +2 over Mavs --- 1.1 units
211 on the total is the highest of the series, with 3 overs thus far might be time to grab the Under, if line moves to 212 I'll play the Under.
That likely means Doncic and Kyrie cool off on 3's.
One analyst calling those 2 the greatest back- court ever. Sounds like a peak to me. Typical overreaction when players or teams are on an unsustainable level
1-0, won 1 unit
playoffs --- 17-12, won 7.25 units
futures --- 0-1, lost 1 unit
the info about conference finals is now 4-2 I think, i check to make sure it is correct. has not finished with a losing since 2007 through 2016
Hey what do you know, Twolves get 1. Day late and a dollar short though. But I will have a very nice & interesting spot for game 5. But first let's wait out the line and see where it is going.
The greatest backcourt ever coughed up a dud, combined 33.3% shooting from the field and 5 of 17 on 3's, 29.4%, far cry from their combined 17 of 35 (48.6%) in games 2 % 3. And no surprise the under came in.
MY LINES .................................................game 5
Twolves -5.99 over Mavs .................TW before Towns injury
Twolves - 5.35 over Mavs................TW end of season
teams off a SU win & ATS win after trailing by 2 or 3 games.................................... 2007 through 2016
7-0 ATS
the info seems to suggest that once teams get that first win after trailing by 2 or 3 games, they tend to win ATS in the next game. Play is on the Twolves
Twolves -4 (-120) over Mavs --- 1.2 units
I will buy the .5 pt because failing to get the best line has not cost me at this point and it usually does at some point. Combined that with one of my lines would not have a play at -4.5. Hopefully I won't need it. If I win, then no harm to paying a higher price for some extra insurance based on the situation.
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