Couple Beers

Kyle Harrison’s full-season numbers are actually pretty solid. His ERA and underlying numbers all say he’s been a good pitcher overall.

The concern is what’s happened since his forearm injury.

His fastball velocity is down from about 95 mph to around 93.7, the pitch isn’t moving as well, hitters are missing it less, and they’re hitting it harder.

The results have been ugly too. Over his last three appearances, he’s allowed 23 hits and 17 earned runs in just 7 1/3 innings

This morning when I first pulled up Harrison’s numbers since coming back from the forearm injury, you could see he’s been in pretty rough shape. I was trying to make a case for the over because of that, but once the lineups came out, Milwaukee was missing a few important bats.

I’m not comfortable enough to play Pittsburgh either, so I’m going to stay off this one. I did some work on it, but nothing here gives me enough confidence to force a bet.

Watching. BOL on next plays.

The other early game I’m looking at is San Diego first five -1/2

Tanner Gordon has been very hittable this season, allowing opps to hit over .300 with 18 home runs in 97 innings, and that’s a bad combo at Coors. San Diego just put up nine runs here Wednesday and gets another favorable matchup today.

Michael King gives the Padres the edge on the other side. He has a 3.03 ERA and has allowed only three earned runs over his last 19 innings

San Diego is on my short card today. It’s an early start, which isn’t my favorite situation because I don’t like sweating games at the office, and I do have something later that I like.

That said, I’m going to spend some more time on Padres-Rockies. The lineups aren’t out yet, and for me to play San Diego F5 at noon Vegas time, it’s going to have to check every fucking box

@LVTruck

 Im game for whatever bro, if you find an edge..

LET$ FKN CRU$H THEM TODAY. 

Love the pads today 

@TheBoogeyman931

 BOOGEY !!!

Velo so far so good

@countrybob

 What up Bob?? 

If you post a play I'll put our streak on the line as I go for 7 straight W's with you 

@LVTruck

 It's insane the Brewers do not realize this kid is still fk up from injury

Harrison’s post injury numbers were screaming that something was wrong, and he got hammered again.

If Milwaukee had rolled out even a halfway normal lineup, that over probably would’ve been a much stronger look

BOL today 

@LVTruck

 Yep and they sat 3 starters

@LVTruck

 How we looking for pads?

I still like San Diego for a lot of the same reasons I posted earlier. I just didn’t get enough time to really stress test the game the way I want to, so financially I’m staying off it.

I do have something later today that I like, and I’ll have enough time to put in the proper work on that one before I get involved.

Hello LV, which do you think is a safer bet for Pads. First 5 or FG? 

I appreciate your help.

I still like San Diego, but the first five -1/2 is the way I’d want to play it.

The full game moneyline is around -200, and I’m definitely not laying that kind of price. If I were going full game, the only way I’d consider it would be the -1.5 run line around -128.

Personally though, I’d rather isolate the matchup I like Michael King against Tanner Gordon for the first five innings and avoid paying the full-game tax. So if I were involved, Padres F5 -1/2 would be my preferred angle.

Thank you, LV. 

I played SD First 5 yesterday and it was a glorious victory.

Smoked another soccer winner this AM so ready to parlay that coin into a later play if you have one.