NBA PLAYOFF TIME .................................................2024

@theclaw

 We both hit!

2nd half Mavs out shot them in 3s again and out rebounded them the whole game. Turnovers evened things up. I got the over at 205.5 in the 2nd q and bet both ways on ML during the game runs so it was decent. Still kind of surprised the Thunder lost the game

Holmgren in the playoffs has shot so far beneath his season average from 3 that he almost single handedly  broke the teams average, although there were others.

He is technically a rookie, so, he gets a pass.

 ....................................OKC shot well on 3's 1st half but not so much 2cd half. They were in control but Mavs delivered down the stretch, still game could of went either way.

 ................................. yea baby !!!

1-0, won 1 unit

futures --- 0-1, lost 1 unit

no sweating that over out. Hopefully I will have a regression method on the totals, this game had the look of regression but I made the over call using other info as well.

MY LINES ........................................

Nuggets -2.15 over Twolves

Twolves off a big blowout 45 pt win, both teams have the common denominators of champions, Twolves the better team but Joker the best player, playing on an all-time great level. Joker assists on 40% of all Nugget baskets when he is on the court. That is Magic Johnson territory, one of the greatest passer in league history if not the very best passer. To put that in perspective Larry Bird was never over 30%.

Twolves clearly the team to back based on my lines, I think Twolves is the right side but I will pass here, I can't go against an all-time great in a game 7. Pass on this game.

I hope the Twolves get it done, if Joker dominates this game nothing you can do but shake your head and give the props to the Joker. 

playoffs --- 15-10-1, won 7.45 units

MY LINES .....................................

Knicks -4.73 over Pacers

Neither team has the common denominators of champs. Knicks are the better team but not by all that much. Knicks are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS at home in this series. Basically this has been a homecourt series with each team only winning at home. I can see Pacers winning this game SU but I can't back either team in this spot, a game 7 with not much separating these 2 teams.

Pass on this game 7.

Conference Championship Games ............................................

PR I .......................

Celtics 10.43.............. by 8.44

Pacers 1.99

Twolves --- 7.07 ............by 1.35 .... using Mavs play after the trades

Twolves --- 7.71 ...... before Towns injury ............by 1.99 ....using Mavs play after trades

Mavs --- 5.72 .........after trades

Mavs --- 1.81 .... full season

PR II .............................................

Celtics --- 55.7 ..........by 3.08

Pacers --- 52.62

Twolves --- 53.46 .......by .91

Mavs --- 52.55  .................after trades

Twolves --- 53.71 ...... by 1.16 ..........before Towns injury

The big advantage The Pacers had over Knicks was ......... Offensive shooting efficiency, which includes 2 pt, 3 pt, FT's, TO's. 53.21%, 3rd best narrowly behind OKC's 53.27% for 2cd best. Knicks were dead-last and the only team under 50%, at 49.99%.

Knicks were better in the other areas like defense and off rebounding and def rebounding. But Look no further then game 7 when Pacers shot lights out, when Pacers shot very well  those other areas won't make a big difference. Rebounds don't matter much if the team don't miss shots and their opp can't make shots.

But now Pacers are playing the best offensive shooting efficiency team, Celtics 53.72, Pacers will not have that same advantage here in this series and Celtics better everywhere else too. Better off rebounding, better defensive rebounding, better defense by almost 3% which is big in the world of the NBA as Pacers the worst team in playoffs 1n defensive shooting efficiency.

Pacers 51.53% is brutally bad, no other teams is over 51% and only 1 other team was even over 50% (50.72%) and that was the Bucks, my oh my did their defense sink fast. I heard it was Lopez really lost a step or 2 or 3.

By worst team I am referring to all the teams I posted Power Ratings for in my very 1st post. I don't have some of the lower seeds but I would not be surprised at all if Pacers defense was worst then many of those teams.

Now The Pacers are playing the best offensive shooting team and a team that has an historically great shooting efficiency margin of 5.1%, one of rare few teams to be over 5%.  Celtics win this series easily. I don't think it is worth any plays backing Pacers to win this series.

@theclaw

 Bucks were morons for trading jrue imo

Great insight 

Gl rest of the way

MY LINES .......................................

Celtics -12.44 over Pacers

Celtics lost game 2 in both 1st and 2cd rounds, I don't think Celtics will repeat that in this series, I think they start 2-0 SU at home. I think Pacers are a bit over-valued based on beating the Knicks who were a very weak no. 2 seed. And we have Pacers off a 7 game series playing a top team, with my lines clearly on the Celtics, play is on the Celtics

with a 2.5 diff between my line and closing line in conference final, 2007 -2016 ........................38-21 ATS

I haven't updated this but I will try to get it done.

at -10 we have a 2.44 diff, close but no cigar. 

Celtics -10 over Pacers --- 1.1 units

Thanks for pointing that out, Oh yea that certainly contributed to the Bucks defensive demise ..................................

0-1, lost 1.1 units

Pacers had their opportunity and blew it, the road team can get 1 good opportunity to get either game 1 or game 2 they don't get 2 chances very often. They need to seize that opportunity when it comes, Pacers failed. So thankful Celtics could steal that game.

MY LINES ......................................

We'll give the Mavs every benefit by using PR only after the trade. We will look at Wolves PR before Towns injury and full season. Wolves shooting efficiency margin went down slightly without Towns but their rebounding went down much more without Towns so we can be sure Twolves are better then the full season rating.

Twolves -5.99 over Mavs ...............before Towns injury

Twolves -5.35 over Mavs.................full season

Twolves off 2 SU & ATS wins including a monster 45 pt win and then a SU win and ATS win, not a good spot for Twolves. Twolves did trail the previous series 3-2, when a top team trails the previous series they tend to come-out strong to not dig a hole for themselves again, but with Twolves off that big monster blowout win not the best of spots.

Mavs the road team in series has the common denominators of champs, with both teams having these this is common for them to split game 1 & 2. Now that is assuming we feel good about Mavs rating being only over 26 games to end the season. But the Mavs do have 2 very good offensive players so I will wait out game 1 and back the SU loser in game 2 most likely.

MY LINES ......................................

We'll give the Mavs every benefit by using PR only after the trade. We will look at Wolves PR before Towns injury and full season. Wolves shooting efficiency margin went down slightly without Towns but their rebounding went down much more without Towns so we can be sure Twolves are better then the full season rating.

Twolves -5.99 over Mavs ...............before Towns injury

Twolves -5.35 over Mavs.................full season

Twolves off 2 SU & ATS wins including a monster 45 pt win and then a SU win and ATS win, not a good spot for Twolves. Twolves did trail the previous series 3-2, when a top team trails the previous series they tend to come-out strong to not dig a hole for themselves again, but with Twolves off that big monster blowout win not the best of spots.

Mavs the road team in series has the common denominators of champs, with both teams having these this is common for them to split game 1 & 2. Now that is assuming we feel good about Mavs rating being only over 26 games to end the season. But the Mavs do have 2 very good offensive players so I will wait out game 1 and back the SU loser in game 2 most likely.

Interesting fact on the Nuggets..................... I saw someone say the Nuggets did not beat a 50 win team last season in playoffs to winning the title. So I looked it up, yep and then I looked up other years this team made the playoffs, nope didn't beat a 50 win team there either.

Interesting to me since last year Nuggets did not have the common denominators of champions, I didn't think they could win the title and they became the first team to win the title since 1980 the year Bird and Magic enter the league other then defending champs who repeat to not have the common denominators. Now it is somewhat understandable how they did it while not having the balance need to win the title. Might have been a bit of a fluke.

Nuggets must have had one of if not the easiest path to winning the title since 1980.

MY LINES .......................................

Celtics -12.44 over Pacers

2007 -2016 with a 1 pt diff between my lines and the closing line in the conference finals .............

off SU loss --- 17-7 ATS

off ATS loss --- 17-6 ATS ....this through 2017

trailing in the series --- 16-8 ATS

with a 2.5 diff to closing line --- 38-21 ATS

The info is telling us the better teams bounce back big-time in these situations.

game 1 we did not get a 2.5 diff, this game looks like we will.

Play is on the Celtics, even with KP out the line still favors Celtics unless the line goes up.

If the info was updated and showed similar results I'd up my play but since we don't know I'll stay disciplined and not get overly excited.

Celtics -8.5 over Pacers --- 1.1 units

Here's an interesting thought....................

Talk about the fix is in, the better teams flat-out bounce back as you would expect them to do. We would need to research all the teams my line favored the other team and get those results. If the lesser teams bounced back at about the same rate as the better teams do, then maybe we could say that sounds fishy as all teams bounce back regardless of talent level.

But if only the better teams bounce back at a nice level and the lesser teams do not that is exactly what you can expect, and the league is not helping teams to win for ratings.

Maybe you could argue there might be select situations here and there, but the overall trend would not be the league helping teams for ratings.

Someday I hope to do this, I'd absolutely like to see these results just for my own knowledge.

MY LINES ............................. game 2

Twolves -5.99 over Mavs ............PR before Towns injury

Twolves -5.35 over Mavs

Twolves off a SU & ATS loss, not overly surprise with Twolves off that big-blowout 45 pt win then another win and cover.

The above info I posting about Celtics would not apply to the Twolves unless the line closes at 4.5 and that is highly doubtful with Twolves needing a win. Well, .99 would be so close to 1 we could make a play but with the line going up not down, no play . I do think Twolves will win SU as very difficult to beat a team back-to-back on their home court regardless of what happened the previous series.

Based on the Twolves come-back win, down 3-2, over the defending champs who never beat a 50 win team in the playoffs I think Twolves are a bit over-valued now. 

If Twolves win SU they have a good shot to cover as most winning teams do cover but I would not be surprised at all if Mavs stay in the game or sneak in at the end for the cover. Too risky either way for me, I'll pass for sure.

BOS is off a SU win.

I like the Under.

Has the home page for scores changed?

Yes but off ATS loss. I don't have records for off wins but would not apply anyway because my LINE is on Celtics to cover by a decent AMOUNT.

OFF A SU win would likely favor Celtics also if my line is on them.

I don't know, I never look at home page for scores..............

8

Way over, dadgummit.