NBA PLAYOFF TIME .................................................2024

NBA FINALS .........................................

PR I ......................

Celtics 10.43 ...  by 4.72 .............................Celtics in 2022 (7.43).... Celtics 3 pts better

Mavs 5.72 

Teams better by 1.25 or more --- 25-6 a winning the series

last 10 years 6-2 at winning the series with 2 games did not meet the 1.25 diff .... ( Celtics .85 over Warriors and Bucks .55 over Suns). 1 loss Warriors losing to Raptors with injuries to KD and Klay. Other loss 2016 LBJ over Warriors

Interesting here is when neither PR I or PR II meet the minimum it is about 50% who wins. Which was Celtics VS Warriors although Celtics did rate better on both PR's but not by the minimum amount to be a play in either PR.

PR II .....................

Celtics 55.7 ... by 3.15............................... Celtics 54.21.... Celtics 1.49 better

Mavs 52.55

teams better by .75 are 29-7 at winning the series

last 10 years ...... 7-2 at winning the series .........one game was not .75 or more (Celtics .53 over Warriors 2022) and 1 loss was Warriors losing to Raptors with KD out and Klay out for a couple of games. The only loss 2016 LBJ coming back from 1-3 deficit.

PLAYOFF ONLY PR I ...........................................

Celtics 10.33..... by 6.33

Mavs 4

PR II ....................

Celtics 57.38..... by 4.42

Mavs 52.96

Celtics got much better in PR II and almost the same in PR I in the playoffs without KP. Mavs did not do as well in either PR but they did play the tougher opps, no doubt about that.

I also have an NBA FINAL VERSION of the playoff only  PR'S which combines PR I and PR II and gives shooting efficiency much more weight. This method has called a number of upsets in the finals.

I'll post this tomorrow along with which teams ranks very high since 2000 in this method.  How KD and the Warriors do ? How about LBJ ?  Unfortunately I don't have 96 Bulls with MJ or the other Bulls teams, someday I hope to get those teams included.

Since we have a long break to game 1, I will post some very interesting things on MJ and the Bulls along with other teams back in the 80's and 90's. And MJ VS LBJ in their first 17-18 NBA Finals games.

NBA FINALS PLAYOFF VERSION PR.....................................

this PR gives 3 times the weight to shooting efficiency. This has called some of the upsets that the regular season PR's was wrong in those games. Mavs over the Heat 2011, Heat over Mavs 2006, and Cavs over Warriors 2016.

Obviously, it won't be right every time but it has been right a number of times. 

Celtics 70.01

Mavs 57.64

I thought the Mavs would have played better with the way Doncic and Kyrie have been playing.

To put the Celtics rating in perspective here is the top teams in this method .............................................................

1. 2017 Warriors 83.64

2. 2001 Lakers 75.31

3. 2016 Cavs 72.61

4. 2013 Spurs 72.44

5 2013 Heat 70.93

6. 2024 Celtics 70.01

7. 2018 Warriors 68.44

I only have the PR's back to 2000, I have nothing before 2000. I may not have updated the past 2 or 3 years, I can't find all the info, I have only this list written down. Most likely I put it in the wrong folder. Which I do once in awhile.

Celtics 6th best since then. Celtics better in regular season and better in playoffs, I thought the way Doncic and Kyrie were playing Mavs would have a good shot to pull the upset but nothing I have supports that.

Doncic looks strong, 33.9 pts, 9.2 rebs and 9.8 assists in regular season. Playoffs 28.8 pts, 9.6 rebs and 8.8 assists, his rebs up a little in playoffs but his pts and assists are down.

His Player Efficiency Rating 28.1 in reg season and 22.8 in the playoffs. I put elite players over 24.

In the regular season 57.3% on 2 pt shots and 38.2% on 3's. Playoffs 51.2% on 2 pt shots and 34.3%, wow his FG% is down quite a bit. Why He scored fewer pts in the playoffs per game.

When teams get to the finals the best player has to play well to win. When Bird played well throughout the playoffs Celtics won in the finals, when he didn't they lost in the finals.

81 Celtics, Bird 47.8% in reg season and 47% in playoffs, pretty close and Celtics won

84, Brid 49.2% in reg season and 52.4% in playoffs, Celtics won.

85, Bird, 52,2% reg season, 46.1% in playoffs, Celtics lost to Lakers

86, Bird 49.6% reg season and 51.7% in playoffs, Celtics won

87, Bird 54.7% in reg season and 47.6% in playoffs, Celtics lost

I

Computer went haywire on me.

I have broken Brid and other NBA greats down in the finals games only and found the same result, Bird played bad in those finals losses and good in the finals wins.

Tomorow I'll post MJ first 3 finals series and his performance relative to the regular season in which he went 3-0, 91, 92, 93.

And we'll compare that to LBJ's first 3 finals series performance when he went 1-2. 

Here's a look at MJ's first 3 finals series, he went 3-0 and LBJ's first 3 finals series, he went 1-2.

how many times did each player shoot their regular season ave FG % or better .....................................

MJ --- 11 of 17, 64.7%

LBJ --- 5 of 18, 27.8%

how many times did each player score their season ave or more .......................................

MJ 12 of 17, 70.6%

LBJ --- 5 of 18, 27.8%

how many times did each player shoot within 5% of reg season ave ..............................

MJ --- 14 of 17, 82.4%

LBJ --- 6 of 18, 33.3%

how many times did each player score within 5 pts of reg season ave .....................................

MJ --- 17 of 17, 100%

LBJ --- 10 of 18, 55.6 %

MJ over 64% in every area, LBJ over 50% only 1 time and never over 60%

how many times did each player shoot 5% or better over reg season ave .....................................

MJ --- 6 of 17, 35.3%

LBJ --- 2 of 18, 11,1%

MJ shoot 5% or better at a higher rate then LBJ shot within 5%, crazy 

Pretty much explains why MJ was 3-0 and LBJ was 1-2. I would like to see LBJ's performance in the other finals series he won, he did get better I'm pretty sure. He could not solve defenses at first but then he did learn to do that much better.

I saw a video where LBJ 

I saw a video where LBJ said it was the role players as to why the Heat lost the 2011 series to MAVS. Our role players were not good enough, LBJ is trying hard to push the narrative he is the GOAT.

But they broke down LBJ' 4th quarter performance throughout that series, he scores 3 pts , he shot 33.3 %. And he says it was the role players, role players score more pts then he did, there was 1 or 2 maybe scored the same, but the role players shot higher %. Mario C. and Haslem both played better. 

I did include 2 games in LBJ's 4th finals series in which his team won, I think that is the point I did this research. He didn't do much better though

@theclaw

 LBJ has stated numerous times most recently in fact on JJ Redicks podcasts that he was the reason they lost in 2011. He admits he played like sht. It was the role players for DALLAS he was giving credit to in fact . Tyson chandler , Kidd, terry,stevenson, barrea, etc . He wasn’t putting his role players down lol

its always someone else's fault.  MJ would never defer blame.  GOAT talk not even close.  

Obviously, there are a lot of factors we can bring into play, quality of opps defense, era, experience level at the time of first 3 finals. 

I did breakdown many other great players, Shaq and Kobe, Bird, Magic, Kareem, Duncan, Curry.

Shaq was dominate similar to MJ only a little better. Shaq and MJ were the 2 best at playing up to and over their reg season.

In the first 3 peat for Shag and Kobe, it was all Shag. Shaq was spectacular while Kobe under-performed.  I heard this argument, well Kobe sacrificed his game for Shaq. Maybe that is true to some degree but how do you sacrifice your own FG% ? FG% does not rely on volume,. pts do but not FG%. 

Here's another thing, when Shag took more Field Goal Attempts then Kobe, Lakers were 3-0 in finals. When Kobe wanted to be the man and he took more FGA's Lakers were 0-1.

When Kobe took the most FGA's in the finals series he was 2-2 at winning that series. And in the one series he did win VS Celtics, in game 7 he was something like 6 of 24.

I don't see how people can say Kobe should be in the GOAT conversation.

Kobe also was also one of the worst players with the most misses VS assists. In other words, he'd rather shoot a bad shot then pass to a teammate that is open and has a higher % shot. This is one of the reason he never had a very high Player Efficiency Rating very often. 

If you look at what makes Joker special, he is a great passer and knows to pass the ball to a teammate with a better shot then he would be able to get for himself. That is high basketball IQ.

Kobe would say, I trust myself more than anyone else even though he missed many of those bad shots and would have served his team better by passing to an open player. I think he over-rated his actual ability, he thought he could make these shots when the evidence showed he could not make them at a very high rate. But of course, every time he did make some incredible off-balance shot while being double or even triple teamed, ESPN would show this over and over while neve showing all those same shots that missed with many missing badly.

ESPN built this "perception" Kobe was better then he really was and he was MJ like. Stuff like this is to get ratings, get people to watch, more money for ESPN. If you want to look at how money dictates things here is an example not putting magnets in the rims. 

 No doubt Kobe is one of the all-time greats, but I don't think the evidence points to Kobe being in the GOAT conversation.

 good for him if he did, I saw where he blamed the role players. Possible that was shortly after he lost when he was in excuse making mode back then. Good for him if he owns up to his poor play, I think that makes him look better.

Exactly, I still remember Celtics losing a finals game and Bird saying angrily, we all s#cked including myself and if we including myself play like this we are not winning this series. The All-Greats take accountability for their own and their teams play. There is no reason not to, taking accountability is what great leaders do and it inspires the other players to follow their lead and look at themselves.

This is some interesting research I did years ago. I like to do stuff like this, it's fun to see which were much better and how they rank.

How much above league ave NBA CHAMPS played. Back in 80's and 90's. I'll list the top 10 on both offense and defense. Who has the most top 10 appearances on off and on def  and both combined.

OFFENSE ...............

1. 87 Lakers 3.47

2. 85 Lakers 3.34

Not surprising there.

3. 92 Bulls 3 .....omly 3 teams 3 or better

4. 91 Bulls 2.84

5. 80 Lakers 2.64

6. 88 Lakers 2.56

7. 97 Bulls 2.19

8. 96 Bulls 2.04

crazy, the top 8 are all Lakers and Bulls

9. 86 Celtics 1.98

10. 95 Rockets

Lakers and Bulls have 4 top 10's. 

Celtics 1 and Rockets 1

DEFENSE ..................................

1. 99 Spurs 3.53

2. 96 Bulls 2.36

wow, look at how much those Spurs are ahead of 2cd best.

3, 83 76era 2.14

4. 97 Bulls 2.11

5. 94 Rockets 2.02

6.. 98 Bulls 2.01

7.. 90 Piston 1.84 ...................Piston a little surprising they aren't higher.

8.. 86 Celtics 1.62

9.. 81 Celtics 1.45

10.. 89 Pistons 1.3 

 Bulls with 3 top 10's

Celtics 3

Pistons 2

76ers 1

Lakers 0 .....best Lakers team was 13th was in 87 which I have as the best of all those Laker teams according to my PR's

Bulls have the most top 10's with 7

Lakers and Celtics have 4

The Bulls are the only team to finish at least 2 better in both off and def and they did it twice.

96 Bulls combined for ave of 5 ............best team since 1980 in my PR's

97 Bulls 5.5

87 Lakers 7

86 Celtic 8.5

99 Spurs 9.5 .............. great def but off was 18th

87 Lakers have the best ave of 2.3 combining both off and def how much they played over ave ...... 3.47 + 1.13 = 4.6 but their def did not crack the top 10

99 Spurs 2.25 ......only on strength of def, no balance

96 Bulls 2.2 ...................best team since 1980 in my PR's.

97 BULLS 2.15

85 Lakers 2.03

86 Celtics 1.8

83 76ers 1.6

89 Pistons 1.3

the best most complete team with balance is clearly the Bulls. the Bulls would also rank quite a better in both PR's then any other of these teams, it's not even close, they did so many things well. I think 3 teams, 96, 97, 92 would rank the top 3 teams. Maybe I'll post this at some point during the finals if there are a couple days off.

tomorrow I'll have my lines and info on game 1.

MY LINES ....................................... NBA Finals Version

we give 2 pts for every game a team trails in the series

Game 1 --- Celtics -8.71 over Mavs

Celtics off 2 ATS losses while Mavs off 1 ATS win and a big 21 pt win. Spot would slightly favor Celtics. My lines game 1 in NBA finals is only about 50% with a 1 pt diff.

Mavs off 5 straight road wins with Luka shooting 48% on 3's. I don't see Luka and Kyrie continuing their hot 3 pt shooting. Both the money and number of bets is pretty heavy on Mavs for game 1 reported by fan duel.

So many liked the Twolves and since they lost to Mavs they are now over-rating the Mavs. I call this a switch game. 

Both teams have the common denominators of Champions, generally these type teams in the Finals will split game 1 and 2.

I'd lean Celtics game 1. But pass on any plays, I think there will be better opportunities later in the series.

According to all the PR's Celtics should win this series. To many factors against the Mavs. KP playing is big, as long as he can goi for most of the games I don't think Mavs have much of a chance to win the series. That is the one unknown that can't be predicted. But this time of year it is common for teams to let on a guy is questionable, up in the air, and then he balls-out with a strong series.

KP has the best Player Efficiency Rating of any player in regular season for Celtics in big part because Tatum and Brown open things up for him. He is a good 3 pt shooter,. 37.5%. Celtics have 3 players shoot 41.9% form 3 or better and they take 14.6 3's per game plus another shoots 39.6% that takes like 6.8 shoots per game. that's 21.8 3 pt atts all shooting at high rates.

GL on your play @theclaw

Great analysis.  Good luck when you pull the trigger and actually place a wager.

I haven't done anything so far.

@theclaw

 What would you respond to with the bottom stats of Kobe/Shaq splits home vs away 

2001 playoffs (ppg, rpg, apg)

Kobe (Home): 28.2/5.5/7.2 Shaq (Home): 34/16.7/2.7

Kobe (Away): 35.8/8.8/5.0 Shaq (Away): 23.6/13.6/2.2

2002 playoffs

Kobe (Home): 25.4/5.5/4.1 Shaq (Home): 25.9/14/2.6

Kobe (Away): 28.0/6.3/4.7 Shaq (Away): 27/11/2.6

2003 playoffs

Kobe (Home): 31.2/4.5/5.3 Shaq (Home): 27.8/16.7/5.3

Kobe (Away): 31.2/4.5/5.3 Shaq (Away): 26.2/13/2.0

2004 playoffs

Kobe (Home): 27.3/4.9/5.8 Shaq (home): 19.8/14.2/3.0

Kobe (Away): 22.5/5.8/5.9 Shaq (Away): 20.3/13.6/2.5

These #s get even worse for Shaq when you take away the finals (which were a cake walk for the bigman).. im not saying this to discredit Shaq.. he was the damn man.. but at that age with Kobe doing what he was doing, i think there is great evidence from him being in the GOAT convo. He had better numbers on the road which were much tougher games and he led them every single WCF other than 2000. 

Good points but I think play in the Finals is more important.  I don't see K9be when you look at all his playoff and finals games should be in Goat conversation.

Game 4 in 2008 with Celtics up 2 -1 and Lakers have to win and they have like a 20 pt lead, Paul Pierce switches to play  Kobe, outplays him the rest of game and Celtics come back and win taking a commanding 3-1 lead which is virtually impossible to come back from and Lakers lost the close game by like 40 or 50 it's a Record for finals game when Kobe was best player onthe team.

To many of these examples.

@theclaw

 Buddy u have any play

@Rollinondubz24

He is not playing the game but leans Boston (Post 213) 

@theclaw

 Good stuff bro 

Claw, many thanks from a long time lurker. You put allot of time into your posts and just know there are many on here that appreciate you.