I did see that but didn't have time to comment. The info still would of had no play, KP would have to be worth 3 pts to make a play on Mavs with a 3.5 diff.
The one thing about KP is, as much as he does contribute he does not play alot of minutes, I think he was around 24 minutes a game when If you look at Tatum and Brown playing huge minutes, 37-40. KP does contribute quite a bit in his time on the court but limited minutes is not worth 3 pts. Maybe 1.5 to 2 pts, 2.5 at most.
MY LINES ................................................... game 4 --- close-out game
Celtics -.71
Close-out games we give no additional pts regardless of series lead.
All leans on my line --- 22-11 ATS ................favors Mave if line -1 or more through 2023
1 PT DIFF --- 15-10 ATS
2 PT DIFF --- 12-6 ATS
I went back and found 2 more teams 4.5 or better in both PR I & II combined
99 Spurs by 10.04 over Knicks ........................Knicks were a 8th seed I think
96 Bulls by 7.52 over Seattle
And just as the info would suggest, both teams took a 2-0 series lead, and one of those teams took a 3-0 series lead which is 50% just as the other teams did. Now it is 5 teams taking a 3-0 and 4 losing game 3. Bulls won, Knicks lost game 3.
Now, of the 5 teams with 3-0 series lead 3 did sweep bot 2 teams lost big. Bulls lost 107-86 and Warriors lost 137-116.
Although 3 did sweep 2007 Knicks won 83-82 by only 1 pt. Knicks -2.5 lost ATS. 2002 La won 113-107 only by 6 BY LA-4.5won ATS.
Only 2018 Warriors won big, 108-85
The team up 3-0 is 2-3 ATS BUT 3-2 winning SU.
Again we are looking at about 50% either way.
Now let's add this, Celtics do not have a 2 pt diff or 1 pt diff in my line. My line would favor Mavs.
The public now has given up on Mavs and are big on Celtics, 68 & 69% with bets and money. This again is what I call a switch game, bets and money lost 3 straight now they want to "switch" over.
Then I saw a few guys on you tube saying game 3 was the best chance for Mavs, down 2-0 and back at home, I would agree with that in a normal year but this is not a normal year, the difference in talent and skill is too big as we see by 4.5 better teams.
These guys also said if Mavs lose game 3 back the Celtics, forget about Mavs winning game 4. Well, the info of much better teams 4.5 or better taking a 3-0 lead does not support this thinking, again this is not a normal year.
I lean Mavs to win SU. I say it is still about 50% either way BUT MY LINES would lean Mavs and has a good ATS record under 1 pt diff, and with money and bets switching and some knowledgeable guys thinking only take Celtics when this situation does not warrant that thinking I think Mavs will win SU
I think it is possible books are shifting the number to get Celtics backers because of how the Celtics have dominated. Reading into how the books normally set line and total for close-out games especially when there is a very strong team involved like the Celtics, the books are expecting the Mavs win tonight.
i usually say take the sweep in the finals at 3-0; emotional states being so divergent and basketball is a hot or not sport. But,, I am seeing an awful lot of people switching to Celtics and that scares me. I've said all year that Celtics take the championship but will be untrustable against the spread and even ML especially in big TV games. They were doing poorly for gamblers in the playooffs up to the finals. Now they have covered 3 straight and everyone seems back on them.
I'm pretty sure the Celtics CAN win this game but I'm starting to doubt they Will. I've seen them in a lot of games like this where they start turning the ball over, missing 3s or forget how to play defense , especially at the 3 point line.
I will post some very interesting things about how the game has changed over the years, and this is insanely crazy, well worth reading on.
Back in the 80's the best offensive efficiency teams, Lakers and Bulls end of the decade and into the 90's shot just a bit over 48% when we include, 2 pt shots, 3 pt shots, FT's and TO.
It was in 2013 the Heat became the very first team to shot over 50% at 50.1% That's a span of over 30 years to go up 2%. Then came the Warriors, dynamo 3 pt shooting duo, then KD that incredible threesome pushed off to .......
2015 --- 47.8%
2016 ---50.66%
enter KD.....
2017 --- 51.22%
2018 --- 51.82%
in just 5 years it was pushed up almost 2%
but wait, it isn't over yet .......................
2024 Celtics now set the new record ....................
2024 ---- 53.72% ...........................in 11 years off has risen by 3.71%, wow is all I can say, crazy talk ..................but wait ...........................
OKC --- 53.27%
Pacers --- 53.21%
wow, 3 teams significantly better than Curry, Klay, KD Warriors ...................but wait ................................
Bucks --- 52.47%
Clippers 52.13%
Mavs 51.96% ..........full season
Twolves were one of the worst shooting teams at 51% ...... only 2 teams below them..... of the top teams I posted the PR's
Cavs --- 50.77%
Knicks --- 49.99% ................... bottom feeder of the top teams
Jus think Twolves would have easily been no. 1 in 2013 and Knicks probably 2cd that is what is going on in the league.
One of the reasons Warriors don't rate as well, may seem not logic to some, but Curry was not very good at getting to the line relative to all the shots from the field he takes. Klay was horrendously bad. And Warriors could not win the TO battle by much of anything, 2 big weakness that contribute to the off shooting efficiency.
Celtics have 3 ......3 pt shooters shot a higher 3 pt % then either Curry or Klay or KD and White at 39.6% much better then KD of the 2017 Warriors with almost the same number of attempts. That's crazy.
I've always said a team can't win the title taking a lot of 3's trying to duplicate the Warriors unless you have great 3 pt shooters like the Warriors.
2017 Warriors took like 31.2 attempts from 3 and shot 38.3 %, sensational.
2024 Celtics take 42.5 shots and shoot 38.8 %, not only do Celtics shoot a higher % but the key is they take a significant number more attempts.
The Celtics are not good at getting to the line either but defensively they are much better then the Warriors at not sending opp to the line relative to shots from the field.
Celtics defense .145 % ................1st in the league
Warriors .198 %....................11th
And that is how the Celtics did it, far more3 atts while shooting a little better and preventing opp getting to the line which produces the best shooting efficiency much better then even 3 pt shots.
Now all that brings me to this...........................................
96 Bulls would beat the 2017 Warriors because those Warriors weaknesses were the Bulls strengths..................... the Bulls are one of the rare team to win every battle with no real weaknesses.
PR I .........................
96 Bulls --- 11
2017 Warriors --- 11.6............ better here by .6
PR II ..........................
96 Bulls --- 58.05 ......................... better by 2.8
2017 Warriors --- 55.25
The only reason the Warriors are slightly better in PR I is the info I just showed you. How off efficiency has changed over the years with teams taking far more 3's and shooting high %'s.
If the Bulls had practiced and taken many more 3's relative to the era in 2017 their shooting efficiency would be much higher.
96 Bulls --- 16.5 attempts
96 Bulls --- shot 40.3 %
MJ --- 42.7 %
Kukoc --- 40.3 %
Kerr --- 51.5 %
Pippen --- 37.4%
Buechler --- 44.4 %
Bulls won TO battle by 2.8 per game
Warriors by .7
The info above is telling you how dramatic the difference in era's is, how shooting efficiency changed by a large amount and to think the Warriors are only .6 better in PR I which gives extra weight to shooting efficiency and they are only .6 better.
Make no mistake, if the 96 Bulls played in the 2017 Warriors era and took more 3 pt shots as they certainly would have they'd of cleaned the Warriors clocks. No ifs, ands or buts about it.
Yep. I THINK THEY DEFINATELY CAN win but will likely be a bit complacent in this game and Mavs play well........................
PR II is balance PR giving equal weight to shooting efficiency and rebounding. Those 2 have the highest and 2cd highest correlation to winning and predictive value with shooting efficiency no. 1 in both correlation and predictive value, hence why PR I gives extra weight.
PR II tells us who has the best all-around balance.
There have been only 3 teams to rate over 56.
The best Warriors team was 55.67.
the only teams over 56 .............................
1. 96 Bulls --- 58.04 ...............and the only team over 58 or even 57
2. 97 Bulls --- 56.9
3. 92 Bulls --- 56.4
The most complete team from top to bottom, the best overall balance of any team to every lace up sneakers in the NBA at least since 1974, prior to that the league did not track the stats needed for TO's and off & def rebs.
And this is where the info I posted above on how shooting efficiency comes into play big-time and how much it changed from the 80's to middle 2010's. Warriors were a product of that era of volume 3 pt shooting, a great product for sure but not on par with the Mighty Bulls in terms of overall balance. Bulls team had no weaknesses, all they needed was to join the era of 3 pt shots and you can turn-out the lights they'd have beaten any team in that era as of today.
If you look at the evidence and want to be honest with yourself, the evidence is so compelling, so strong you simply cannot form any argument Warriors are better then the Bulls.
Maybe a better team will emerge someday but personally, I have my doubts on that.
Yes you have a good shot on that. I looked for atl line but couldn't find any in my books.
Mavs rolling at the half.
61-35 up 26 it's. I believe that is the largest lead Mavs have had at any point in the 1st half.
25 was previous best. 50-25
That's important because Crltics tried to close out the half by cutting into that lead before half ended. But couldn't do it.
The start of the 2cd half is going to be very important for both teams. Celtics will look to come out strong and cut into the lead pretty quick if Mavs can hold them off will be a key to watch for.
Wow, did they just say Mavs have the largest halftime lead of any finals game ?
Another very low scoring game
Key to watch is if game continues going low scoring and especially if lowest scoring of any of the 4 games, see if books open game 5 total much lower, that will be the key to know regression is coming
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