NBA PLAYOFF TIME .................................................2024

POWER RATINGS I

1. Celtics 10.43

2. OKC 7.21

3. T-wolves 7.07

4. Nuggets 5.22 

5. Suns 4.55

6. Clippers 4.15

7. Bucks 3.16

8. Cavs 2.75

9. Knicks 2.72 .............................yikes no. 2 seed not looking so good

10. Mavs 1.81

Celtics playing on a historical high level

Knicks one of the worst 2 seeds ever.

T-wolves were 2cd before Towns injury and are likely better then this final rating. They were 7.71 after 64 games

Clippers also better 5.32 around the 64 game mark. Not sure when Kawhi went out.

Celtics finished the season with a historically great shooting efficiency margin becoming one of only a few  teams to finish over 5% margin.

OKC was over 5% at 63 game mark but dropped off with the tough games they played trying for the 1 seed. Finishing still at an incredible strong 4.89%. But are a weak rebounded team (46.85%), no rebounds, no rings.  Compare that to the T-wolves 50.05% and the Nuggets 50.55%.  T-wolves 50.25 at 64 game mark.

When the Nuggets were in a tough battle for the no. 1 seed they improved their rating by almost 1 pt, (.98)

PR I ........................has 3 teams with the common denominators of past champs, Celtics, T-wolves, Nuggets.  

Celtics my favorite to win the title, T-wolves my favorite to win the West. But one of these 3 teams should win the title 

POWER RATING II ..........................................

1. Celtics 55.7

2. T-wolves 53.46

3. Knicks 52.99 ............................ Knicks look better here with their strong rebounding carrying more weight.

4. Nuggets 52.93

5. OKC 52.34

6. Suns 52.1

7. Clippers 51.74

8. Cavs 51.45

9. Bucks 51.25

10. Mavs 50.36

PR II has Celtics winning the East and title. And T-wolves winning the West.

I did make 3 futures around the 64 game mark after running the numbers. Celtics to win the East -125, and winning the title at +220, and I did get the T-wolves to win the West at an incredible +1400 after Towns went down with injury, when I read he'd be back sometime about halfway through the 1st round I took a chance he'd be able to contribute at that price.

I wanted to post this when I made the plays but never got around to it unfortunately.

My Lines ...........................................

T-wolves -1.48 over Suns

Mavs -1.66 over Clippers

T-wolves in close-out game. Bad spot for T-wolves off 3 SU & ATS Wins and narrowly missing out on being a regression fade. Play here is on the Suns.

With Kawhi out and line 7 or more I would lean Clippers, Kawhi is not worth that many pts.

Suns -1 over T-wolves --- 1.1 units

All my plays I try to put them in King of covers contest, sometimes I do forget or wait-out a better line then forget.  made 3 plays so far, 3-0 ATS, won 4 units. I won't count those here but those are in my contest picks. 2 plays from yesterday, Celtics game 3 -9.5 and Lakers game4 +4. With T-wolves game 1. I wanted to post these but didn't get around to it.

Been Doing some last bit of remodeling on the house and I did injury my shoulder the day after SB  shoveling a wet snow, torn rotocuff so a bit challenging now. I already had a torn rotocuff in my other shoulder but was doing somewhat well with what could be expected with PT workouts. Needless to say I am a bit slow.

GREAT INFO 

The Mavs last at 10th on both ratings? Don’t get that at all with how well they played to close the season and improved defensively since the trade deadline. 

@theclaw

 The man is fuckin back!

I have a shot of making some money!

@theclaw

Thank you for your precious insights!

I hope you recover soon! 

Good stuff, just like the NFL 

@sportschat

Mavs are not a very good team. Their defense is not good . Defensive rebounding is 19th. Defensive FG% is 20th.

Their shooting efficiency margin is OK for a playoff team, nothing great at 1.66% but their rebouding is weak.

Clippers with Kawhi is 2.78% over 1% better. 1% in the NBA is a lot. Teams 1% or better have a pretty good record of wining a series in past history.

Your the Fuckin man

0-1 ATS, lost 1.1 units

Twolves got it done. Possible they will be overvalued next round especially if Nuggets continue to struggle and with Murray hurt.

Clippers line did stay at -7 and Clippers won SU, even had they lost SU very likely they cover anyway.

I don't have PR's for the lower seeds so can't get any lines for tonight's games. I'll have all that next round.

Nuggets in a 2cd closeout game, generally good plays when a team with common denominators of past champs gets to a 2cd closeout game VS a team without those common denominators.

I'd lean Nuggets tonight.

I think Celtics should win SU. And OKC should win. If OKC wins and covers they will go into regression to start the next round. Coming off past 2 game big wins of 32 and 21 pts plus another win and cover tonight puts them on an unsustainable level of play.

@theclaw

You're obviously not looking at how a team is playing in current form. 19th in defensive rebounding is full season. They’re top ten defensive rebounding since the trade deadline, and 3rd last 15 games.  Defense not good? 1st in defensive efficiency last 6 weeks of the regular season. Defense has been playing lights out. Not trying to come off as rude but the data…

I like the full season stats, works just as well as end of the season stats or after the all-star break stats. I have tracked those different ways. Sometimes end of the year, a teams current form does work better then full season but sometimes full season works better.0

I agree that taking the current form into consideration would be a good thing but it would only cause me to pass on playing either team. Thus far in this series my lines had 2 plays on the Clippers. and is 2-0 ATS. Game 1 and the most recent game I posted above to back Clippers if the line stays -7 or better which it did.

I do think using either way is ok to do, if you want to use current form then you should do that with all teams and the same with full season stats. Don't jump back and forth you'll only confuse yourself. 

All home teams won as I thought they would but Nuggets failed to cover. With OKC's win and cover they go into regression and will be a bounce factor fade game 1 next round.

Twolves narrowly missing be a bounce factor fade, I'd fade them before I'd back them. Yea they do look strong and Nuggets don't look as strong but watch the narrative with there analysts which will most likely reflect this.

Tonight's games Cavs in a good spot while Magic in a bad spot. Magic coming off a huge blow-out 38 point win and followed by a 23 pt win. In all my years I don't ever recall such a mediocre team winning by those margins back-to-back. The bounce factor needs 3 games minimum not 2. But when a team is as mediocre as the Magic I doubt they could do this over 3 games, only the stronger teams fall under this and that is not the Magic.

Play is on the Cavs tonight.

Cavs -5 over Magic --- 1.1 units

TC 

@theclaw

 Agree