NBA PLAYOFF TIME .................................................2024

Nice pick.  Congratulations.

thank you ................................

A lot of truth there .................................

1-0, won 1 unit

playoffs 18-13-1, won 7.25 units

futures 0-1, lost 1 unit

Pretty obvious the Celtics came out flat as a pancake. Don't underestimate how much focus, effort and energy, both physical and mental, it takes to win 3 straight game even for a great team to beat another good NBA Team especially when that team is super motivated to get the win, Celtics didn't have it in the tank to match that effort. 

If we look at the 5 teams over 4.5 combined PR I & PR II that were up 3-0, 2 teams lost game 4 by 21 pts. Interesting that those 2 teams were .....96 Bulls & 2017 Warriors, the 2 best teams since at least 1974. Both taking pretty good beat-downs.

So as we can see no team is immune to taking a pretty good whipping, not even the very best teams, they can and do come-up empty in the tank in some spots.

Of the 5 teams 3 had won SU but now that is 3 of 6 winning SU, 50%

And those 5 teams were 2-3 ATS, now 2-4 ATS, 33.3 %.  And these are the largest mismatches, and the clearly better teams cannot produce a winning SU record in this spot after winning 3 straight, not an easy task.

Although it is a small sample of only 5 games prior to Celtics game 4 it still did the job. 

So my point is ..... let's not over-react with this Celtics beat-down. 

MY LINE .............................................game 5

Celtics -8.71 over Mavs

With KP out, how many pts is he worth ? If we say 2 pts, then my line is C -6.71 about right on the line which I see now at -6.5, so depending on how much he is worth, it seems will be close to my line.

2cd close-out game for C's. C's off a big blowout lose, better spot for the C's

my line in close-out games ............................

23-11 ATS in all games ........... after the Mavs ATS win in game 4.

1 pt diff to closing line --- 15-10 ATS

2 pt diff ---12-6 ATS

if we gave no pts for KP there is a 2 pt diff if line stays 6.5 or below.

interesting that my line below 1 pt diff is actual better then my line from 1 pt to 1.99 pts. Which is what we had in game 4 on Mavs and game 5 on C's if line closes at -6.5 and we give 2 pts for KP.

I was aware of this when I made my play on the Mavs game 4.

Another thing I noticed looking into info is, teams over 4.5 my line is not as good as the info regarding those teams over 4.5, better using this info then my lines. This could be a game-changer for the future because I will take out the record for my lines of teams 4.5 and only use teams under 4.5 record in my lines. This could turn out to be a major find.

teams over 4.5 .....................................

we now have 14 teams including 99 Spurs and 96 Bulls. .....................12-2 winning the series. (85.7%), Celtics become the 15th, could go to (86.7%)

2016 Warriors are the only team to lose the series after staring 2-0

of the 9 teams started 2-0 ............... 7 did not lose 2 straight at any point in the series............................ favors Celtics

of the 12 teams won the series............................

10-2 SU off a SU loss

8-3 ATS, can't find the line for 1 team, they won by 5 on the road

ave win --- 14.9 pts

 median win --- 14 pts

7 of 10 wins were over 9 pts

Now, the one area goes against the Celtics is, of the 5 teams started 3-0 with 2 losing game 4, those 2 teams 96 Bulls and 2017 Warriors did go 0-2 ATS in game 5 coming off that game 4 loss. 2017 Warriors won by 9 but were -9.5. So it could prove worthwhile getting the best line. Hoping it drops to 6 myself.

But these were 2 of the biggest public teams that were big favorites.

Play if on the Celtics ................................ I will wait-out the line

of 12 teams to win the series ...............

10-2 winning SU off a loss

8-3 ATS

ave win 14.9 pts

median win 14 pts

7 of the 10 wins were by 9 pts or more ......................... all 3 loses under 9 pts were road games.

I thought I put this in but I don't see it ................

In Comment #280 TC said, "can't find the line for 1 team, they won by 5 on the road" 

This query says it's probably BOS over TOR in the 2019 season:

PO = 1 and series wins = 3 and A and p:L and margin = 5

There is only ONE query result which you can check at Killer Sports.  BOS was off a 3-point loss to TOR at home in game 6.

In that game BOS won 92-87 at TOR as a 3-point favorite.  The total was 204, so it went WAY under.

Thanks for the effort...............................      ..............................it'd be a finals game.                      

The game was 2000 LA off a game 5 loss to Pacers, a big blowout loss similar to Celtics ............ 120-87 = 33 pt loss in LA,  LA Won game 6 116-111.

If I had to Quess I'd say LA covered the spread.  In game 1 LA -8, means like PK or Pacers -1 or -2 at home but a closeout game book may have jack the line to LA -2 or -3.

Looking into all this info on teams 4.5 better I noticed something incredible. Something about the era's and about playing with balance that I never noticed before even though I've been using my PR's for years and always refer back to them even the 80's and 70's at times.

We'll see how Bird and Magic changed the game, or did they ? And we'll see how balanced changed over the years.

This is well worth reading guys, in my humble opinion anyway.

Shooting Efficiency (SE) uses 2 pt shots, 3 pt shots, FT's and TO. I believe TO's are mostly the result of trying to create a better shot for yourself or a teammate, which increases SE. TO's decrease SE.

So that covers everything a team does except rebounding, which is a separate skill.

Just so you know how I determine balance, but you will clearly see balance or lack of play out many times. Balance is being good in both SE and reb at the same time.

Can a team excel in both at the same time ? A very difficult task you'll see.

We only look at Champions and some Finals losers.

In the 80'S the 85 Lakers became the first team since 1980, year Bird and Magic entered the league to shoot 4% SE margin. 87 Lakers pushed it to 4.6%, stood the test of time untill 2008 Celtics went over 5% the first time over 5%.

There were 2 teams 4% or better and 2 teams 52% rebs or better. But can any team do both those in the same season, that'd be some very strong balance.

85 Lakers  4% SE with reb 50.5%........................... 87 Lakers 4.6% SE with 50.2%

See it ? When SE goes up reb goes down.

84 C's 52% rebs with 2.3% SE..................90 Pistons 52.2% rebs with 2.1% SE

see it again ? When reb gets strong SE goes down.

So can any team do both ? Have some kind of balance ?

86 Celtics did the best .............. 3.6% SE with 51.5 reb, but they could not get to either 4% SE or 52% reb.

Look 87 Celtics, lost to LA..... 4.3% SE but 48.3 rebs, see it again ? SE goes up reb goes down.

How about 83 76ers getting Moses to go with the DR................................3.2% SE with 51.65% rebs, reb stronger then 86 C's but SE down from 86 C's.

Teams over 4% SE..............................................

99 Spurs 4.5% SE but 49.96 rebs

2007 Spurs 4.05% SE but 49.85 rebs

2008 Celtics 5.42% SE but 50.4% , hey they did get over 50% unlike most teams. 85 LA did the best with rebs 50.5, C's next best.

2012 OKC lost to Heat, 3.7% SE, pretty good but sadly 49.93 rebs

2013 Heat 5.64% SE and 47.6% pathetic balance cannot come close to doing both things well.

2013 Spurs 4.3% SE but sadly 47.7% another pathetic try at doing both well.

and it continues with 2014 Spurs and Heat and the Warriors as well.

to continue  .............................................

2014 Spurs 4.16% SE with 49.55% rebs

2014 Heat 4.12% with 46.8% rebs, this team sunk to an all-time reb low.

The Heat team was not all that great in any of the years really, maybe 2013 being over 5% is fairly good and they did win the title but come-on terrible reb, cannot do both even remotely close.

Look at all the teams going over 4% SE but cannot reb to save their life. This is what the league is coming to, spread the floor with 3's pt shooters and don't bother reb much.

2015 Warriors 5.66% SE with 49.3 rebs, STILL CANNOT do both

2016 Warriors 5.82% SE , wow took it up. Rebs 49.75, slightly increased both, the best balance between SE and rebs of Curry Klay team, but still cannot even reb over 50% , cannot do both.

Enter KD ...................................

2017 Warriors 6.4% SE of my, KD took it to another level, doubt this will ever be beaten. But 48.85 rebs, drop below 49%

2018 Warriors 4.64% SE with 48.65 rebs, reb gets slightly worse, both SE and rebs drop, but among defending champs that repeat common for SE to drop, sometimes quite a bit, generally though when that happens rebs improve.

2024 Celtics 5.1% SE with 50.6 rebs, hey that's becomes the best reb for any team shooting 4% or better, beats 85 LA's 50.5% and easily the best for any team over 5% SE margin.

What we are seeing since 2010 is the best teams having big SE margin over 4% over 5% with 1 team even over 6% but with every improvement in SE margin reb get worse, teams cannot do both well.

Now I told you all this to get an idea what teams are doing, and to bring you to this .............................................................. 

ENTER THE MIGHTY CHICAGO BULLS .......................................

92 Bulls 4.2% SE with 52.2% rebs, the first team that CAN DO both well.

97 Bulls 4.3% SE with 52.2% rebs, they did it again

96 Bulls 4.4% SE with an astounding 54% rebs, by far the best reb team to win the title, closest other Bulls teams. 

Bulls 4.4% SE margin is 3rd best in their era behind 87 Lakers 4.6% (50.2 rebs), 99 Spurs 4.5% SE (49.96 rebs)

You cannot make an argument about era, Spurs only 2 years later were 4.5% SE with 49.96% rebs and they had 2 all-time greats in Robinson and Duncan both great big men.

Let's see Bulls opps ......................................

96 Seattle 4.3% SE but 49.6% rebs

97 Jazz 4.3% SE but with 50.7% rebs, hey that'd beat 2024 Celtics rebs for a team in the finals.

We can see these 2 teams fit the same exact mold as all the other teams over 4% but can't reb very well.

98 Jazz 3.1% SE with 51.7 rebs, Jazz improve rebs but SE drops, typical of what we see with all the other teams.

98 Bulls 2.2% SE with 53.1% rebs, common for SE to drop and reb rise form prior year

Jazz and Seattle fit the exact mold of all other teams, you cannot argue era. NO team could do what the Bulls could do, in fact no team could even come close. And the Bulls did it "BEFORE" Rodman.

What MJ brought and Pippen to a lesser degree was a complete game, they could do so many things very well.

If we wanted to give these other teams a chance we could lower the parameters .....................................

91 Bulls 3.7% SE with 51.7% rebs, has any team matched this .......................... NOPE

Bulls 4 teams no team can match

Let's lower it some more ..............3.5% SE with 51.5% rebs

ONE team can match that, 86 Celtics, 3.6% SE with 51.5% rebs. but even with Bird, Mchale and Parish this team still cannot get to 52% rebs except 1one time. This with only teams made the finals I am talking about, not sure about other teams.

84 Celtics 52% rebs great but 2.3% SE, reb better, SE goes down, cannot do both well. No team could in any era except the mighty Bulls. If it was the era, other teams would have done the same thing. But they could not because it is very, very difficult to do both well. You need a very special players to do it.

83 76ers with Moses and DR J, 3.2% SE with 51.65 rebs. that is pretty good if you want to compare it to all other teams not the Bulls.

Quick look at the 70's, this in my book will seal the deal ....................................................

Every Champ in the 70's except one was 52% rebs or better (79 Seattle 51.98) ok 2.

The best reb team was 76 Celtics 54.06, fantastic but (-.43% SE) horrendous, cannot come remotely close to the Bulls 54% rebs.

Off all the Champs the worst reb team and only 1 under 51.98%  was, kind of surprising but 77 Blazers with the big redhead, 51.77% but of all the champs they had the best SE of a paltry 1.67%.

See how it works, works the same way in any decade or era.

The worst reb team to make the finals, 75 Bullets 49.34% rebs and the 2cd best SE of any team to be in the finals 2.74%. SE goes up, rebs come down. Cannot do both well.

Unfortunately, I can't do 71 Milwaukee or 72 Lakers, they did not track TO's or off reb prior to 74. I ran the numbers without TO's and both teams did have outstanding SE Margins. over 6 and 7% best I remember, but if we add in TO's likely will change maybe a lot. 

If I did 87 Lakers using no TO's may shed some light on how good those 2 teams were. I never did anything with teams in the 60's, the great Celtics teams.

But 74 Milwaukee did make the finals, this team will seal the deal..................................

4.03% SE with 50.36% reb, exactly what we see with all teams in any decade, in any era other then the Mighty Bulls.

No team can do both high SE and strong reb, to do 1 well takes the team out of position to do the other well, so basically teams decide what they will do well based on the players and talent they have.

Look at the 2024 Knicks, rebs 52.75%, wow, sensational but .24% SE they use their talent to what they do well. You cannot make any intelligent, reasonable argument against this information. 

Final thoughts ......................................................

Back in the 60'2 and 70's teams shot the ball poorly, ave FG5 back in 60's for example was 41.5% in some years so therefore reb was more important with so many rebs from all the missed shots.

Looking at the Champs from 74-79, all but 1 was 51.98% reb or better. From 80 -2010 there were only 2 teams other then the Bulls 52% or better. Bulls did it 5 times.

That is how Bird and Magic changed the game, more great passing led to better shots. But looks to me the Big O played that similar style back in 74 with a 4.03% SE and I suspect it was the same for 71 Milwaukee and 72 Lakers since without TO's they were over 6%, really it was the Big O and West that brought that style to the league, not Bird and Magic but they didn't have the same coverage back then and with all the recent Champs before Bird and Magic came along being strong reb only type teams it seems like Bird and Magic changed the game but the Big O and West were doing it long before Bird and Magic. did but not really.

Doubt any team will come along and be as good as the Bulls teams, and they did it before Rodman so there is no nonsense how they formed a super team by adding Rodman. Granted adding Rodman made them the best version of the Bulls, no doubt but they were already a great, great team without him.

I doubt any team will come along to match the Warriors astounding 6.4% SE in 2017

If we took all the teams from 1980 till 2010 throughout the 6 Bulls titles, we have 25 Champs. Of those 25 they did 4% SE or 52% reb not both in the same year but only do one of those 2. Those 25 Champs combined did 7 of either 4% SE or 52% rebs, while the Bulls did it 8 times by there selves.

Shaq and Kobe Lakers never did 4% SE or 52% reb one time. Not a once.

Great Duncan Spurs teams they did 4% SE 3 times as Champs and 1 time as losing to Heat in 2013. But never reb over 50% in any of those years.

The best balance for the Spurs was 2005, 3.41% SE with 51.36% rebs, not even close in a year they tried more to find balance because their talent and players dictated that.

Shaq and Kobe, was 2000, 3.45% SE with 51.85% strong reb for sure but can't come close to 4% SE.  Teams cannot do both at a high level.

Celtics -6 -120 over Mavs --- 1.2 units

My statergy here is to  up my bet game 6 on Celtics if they lose SU game 5. 

On the road will be a small line that should be a win will cover

Good Luck.

Good luck tonight.  As of now I am passing.  If DAL wins by 1-6 points I will be taking BOS in Game 6.

interesting historic info. I hear young people say that  the players from the past could not compete today. No way of proving that either way.

   Not sure about tonight . I'm only comfortable with the Celtics when most people are fed up with them. Most people are counting the last game as a throw away to bring the championship in Boston. They do have a history of fading a point spread and even a game when they're expected to win. Betting doesn't look  that one sided either way ; I've seen it reported both ways.  Might be another play it in game situation, possibly both ways if the odds are good.

ESPN Bet Live had most of the tickets on DAL and most of the money on BOS.

Porzingus news may drive some late action Boston's way

Porzingus news may drive some late action Boston's way

Congratulations once again.  No Game 6 opportunities, dadgummit.

@theclaw

 Great playoffs, Celtics simply far better