NBA PLAYOFF TIME .................................................2024

Celtics did have a history of not playing so great in big spots, but we have to take into consideration the quality of the team. 2022 Celtics were like 5.42 in PR I and that was no. 1, this season they are over 10, that'd be one of the best in history, so their play reflected the quality of the team.

Fanduel had it 51% of bets on Boston and 64% of money on Boston a bit before tip-off. Big money coming in on Boston, I thought that was a good sign, after the blowout loss people did not "switch" back to Mavs they kind of knew by then Boston was the much better team after backing Mavs 1st 3 games and losing.

Surprised to see him go in, after reading he was done for the series. I think they wanted to create a Willis Read moment the way the Knicks did years ago, but KP is not the player to do that with....................................................

thanks .................................

Yep, Celtics just too good, they were raining 3's, they did miss a number late to bring down their %'s but when it counted they were unreal and when a good 3 pt team is dropping 3's like they were not much any team can do unless you can match those 3's..................................................

1-0, won 1 unit

playoffs ---19-13-1 (59.1%), won 8.25 units

futures 0-1, lost 1 unit

Not to shappy considering things got off to a very shaky 1-6 start, 18-7-1 run to end the playoffs.

Celtics proved to be the great team they rated out to be. One of the great teams in history thanks to their very strong 3 pt shooting and defense.

Tatum finally shot well but my goodness he missed how many layups ? Some weren't easy but he still should of made a number more then he did. He turns the ball over too many times driving to the basket. But the way he played I thought he might sneak in and win MVP which I didn't think he deserved. Brown deserved it no doubt, maybe White but I think Brown deserved it most so glad to see him win the award.

Tatum has gotten a lot press since entering the league, I think he is over-rated myself. He is a very good player but I don't consider him an elite player and that is not counting his past playoff failures. Hid Player Efficiency Rating was only 22.3, last season 23.7 his best in regular season. Elite I consider over 24, he was close last year but also over .220 in win shares per 48 minutes, he has never been over .200. This season was his best at .189, that is not very good for an elite player.

In playoffs his PER dropped to 20.1 and .167 win shares. White lead all Celtics with .204 win shares, the only other player over .2 was KP but he didn't play a lot. White improved the most in playoffs in PER. White also led all players in VORP which is a very good indicator of everything a player contributes based on minutes played, play more minutes contribute more.

White 1.3

Tatum 1.1

Jrue .09

Brown .07

KP .03 even though he did have 2cd best win shares per 48 minutes he does not play a lot of minutes and he missed games

Thanks for all the comments and kind words guys, much appreciated.

Hope to see everyone in the coming NFL Season.

Week 1 I'll have my regression plays which rarely produce a losing record, last season we were .500, 3-3 but 4-2 ATS the year before.

And of course I'll have my bounce factor regression method. It went through some bad years but past 3 years started to slowly come back with last year being back to it's old self.

Speaking of coming back, my PR's might be back as well. Went through a very tough stretch of years but it has been coming back as well, No.1 Celtics in 2022 made the finals then choke a chance for a 3-1 lead away to make series 2-2.

Then 9ers making the SB last year and now Celtics making the finals and winning.  So in the past 3 years that's 3 no. 1 teams making the finals of 6. And 9ers were no. 1, 2 years ago but QB got knock out of the game and 2cd QB got knocked out then the no.2 team made the finals. So my PR's hopefully are coming back around.

And then there is Mahomes, you can't measure what he brings to the table, only follow what Brady did.

Take care and Good Luck in the future ...............................................................

Haven't been around but looks like you had a nice run to end the playoffs TC   Always appreciate the reads....  

Look forward to the regression read and bounce factor plays.....  good to see you've added the "Mahomes" variable....although there is no statistical qualifying model to reflect this, it is basically a "hold on to your butts" and play on / lay off the Jordan of our time.... see you in week 1 

@theclaw

@theclaw

 You are far and away the greatest capper on this site. Thanks for all your hard work!

I learned the hard way with Brady. I did win some going against him but lost more then I won.

There is a couple ways to measure them better, but not going to be as accurate as measuring g other players, teams.

Not much you can do with him, pretty much at the mercy of whether he beats himself which won't happen very often.

Maybe so.e value on the line now that he is going for a 3- peat. 

Thanks for the kind words Bob, much appreciated, but there are many very good cappers here, I wouldn't consider myself the best.

I can have my moments for sure Bob but sometimes not so good moments as well.

I do have a unique way to look at the games that hopefully  is useful for people.

Combined with other's info should be useful.

Teams as strong as the Celtics have a good history of repeating, but I wouldn't make any plays untill later in the season. Wait and see how they are playing. You may get lower odds but I think it is a smarter play. At +300 I saw the other day, I'd  rather lay even money or -110, -120 much later in the season knowing what I got for a Celtics team and the quality of other teams, some could make big improvements

Interesting I forgot to mention, the teams over 4.5 coming off a loss had a ave margin of victory of 14.9 pts as I posted before the game but I forgot to mention Celtics winning by 18 was pretty close to that ave. That was one thing I was very interested to see how close C's would come to that ave. Then I forgot all about it.

But not bad, hit it pretty close.

Another thing I found which was a day late and a dollar short is teams over 4.5 were an incredible 13-2 ATS in game 1, I wasn't on to that to start the series, winning by big margins similar to off a loss.

Both teams won SU but failed to cover then were 2-0 ATS in game 2, winning by 23 and 19.

Next year I'll have teams under 4.5 and the tendencies of those teams in the finals.

I hope to take that to the conference finals and the 2cd round for next year.

@theclaw

 Great info as usual which made for a profitable playoffs 

As a big Celtics fan I hope for a repeat and I'm hopeful White is locked up long term. I have a feeling KP will revert to his injury prone self tho. Perhaps Stevens can add a solid player? I look forward to your NFL info this season 

Yes sir… quality handicapping ..appreciate your efforts.   

Yea, White is very valuable, he plays well in big moments. I agree about KP, very good player when healthy but that is a big if..........................................

I watch many very informative you tube basketball video's as the playoffs were going on.

Some interesting things I saw was, we all know LBJ broke Karrem's all-time pts scored but we never hear how LBJ also has the most TO's all-time, by a pretty good amount over the 2cd place player. And next season LBJ will become the all-time most missed shots leader as well. We never hear about this from the media do we ?

Now we can see what longevity produces, of course some good things but bad things as well, that's why you can't just look at breaking the scoring record as though that makes a player the GOAT. 

LBJ no doubt is the GOAT of longevity, it'd be stupidity to argue against that. But longevity is only 1 part of a players overall legacy.

Did LBJ ave the most pts per game .......................nope. Not close.

But LBJ was 11th all-time for most TO's per game. Had MJ played 5 more years he'd have more pts then LBJ but with over 800 fewer TO's.

Then I looked this up, who created more possession for their team ? ...........................................................

LBJ --- ave 1.2 off rebs + 1.5 steals =2.7

MJ ---ave 1.6 off rebs + 2.3 steals =3.9

But LBJ has 3.5 TO's per game so, 3.5 -2.7 = (-.8) on ave LBJ lost possessions for his teams

MJ has 2.7 TO's so, 3.9 - 2.7 = +1.2, meanwhile MJ gains extra possessions for his teams.

A difference of 2, which in the NBA would be pretty good amount. Larry Bird once said why he dives on the floor for every loose ball even in the first minute of the game is because you never know what 1 play might be the difference to winning or losing the game.

People only talk about triple Doubles as though other parts of the game don't matter.

Some day I'll look more into this .......................

A great video to watch, and I have said this for years on how NBA Analyst shaper and form people's perception of sports and players, many times for the worse. Angry old hoops fan has a great video to show you this very thing, Reggie Miller take on a game with LBJ when he was horrendously bad but Miller Praise him that was not justified at any time.

Another rely great video by "angry old hoops fan", changing rules part 3 - traveling, I highly recommend you watch this video. They made the game so much easier for today's players and they still can't match MJ. I suspect that is why they did it because they needed a similar player to keep the league at the top of ratings.

He shows 1991 Finals, MJ's very 1st finals VS Magic and the Lakers. MJ called for traveling, he moved 1 foot like 3 or 4 inches before dribbling, traveling called on Pippen, called on Magic, watch it in normal speed and try to find the traveling, by todays standards that would not be remotely close to traveling.

I saw Joker in the post during the just completed 2024 playoffs in which he mover his pivot foot about the same amount as MJ, then he moved it a 2cd time about 6 to 8 inches still no traveling call, as he made the shot.

Then you will see in the video how crazy LBJ travels, like 5 steps one time with no call. One time he stop dribbling, grab ball with both hand then dribbled again, palmed the ball to push a guy out the way then continued dribbling to the basket with no call. And he still cannot match MJ who was called IN THE FINALS of all times for moving 1 foot 3 or 4 inches before dribbling.