Posted:
#101
@theclaw
Let’s go OKC!! 
0
NBA PLAYOFF TIME .................................................2024
Posted:
#105
MY LINES ......................................
Knicks -4.73 over Pacers
Nuggets -2.15 over Twolves
Pacers 3-1 ATS in this series and off 2-0 ATS run with a big blowout 32 pt win. Bad spot for the Pacers. Tied 2-2 the key here is the team that wins this series likely wins game 5. Knicks only .73 better in PR I and only .37 better in PR II, Knicks not much better then Pacers, I give the Pacers a decent shot to win this series so I will pass on this game.
Nuggets off 2-0 ATS run and a big blowout 27 pt win followed by a SU win and ATS win, Not a good spot for Nuggets, but not the worst spot. With both teams having the common denominators of champions these are 2 championship level teams where either team could win series. The key again with series tied 2-2 is the game 5 winner is very likely the team wins this series. Twolves better by 1.85 in PR I and .53 in PR II. Although they are both very good teams, Twolves the better team and with my lines on the Twolves with points to work with the play is on the Twolves.
Twolves +4.5 over Nuggets --- 1.1 units
1
Posted:
#108
0-1, lost 1.1 units
Joker puts on a show, absolutely sensational. 40 pts, 13 assists, 7 rebs with 0 TO's. Only the 2cd time a player scored over 40 with over 10 assists I think also with no TO's but not sure if that was included, no center has ever done it. No player has put up that stat line before or better.
Joker comes up huge when his team needs it. All-time historically great performance by this man. Player efficiency rating in playoffs 31.7, historically great. While Ant was over 29 drops to 25.7. Ant in regular season was 19.7, he is now coming back to earth. But 25.7 is still very strong just not historically great like MJ.
This brings up a very nice spot next game.
1
Posted:
#109
MY LINES ..........................................
Celtics -11.68 over Cavs
OKC -9.4 over Mavs
Celtics in a close-out game, we don't use my lines in close-out games. With a strong team VS a mediocre team expect the strong team to close it out on the 1st attempt. Celtics should win this game. Close-out games in game 4 or 5 are 3-2 ATS for the team needing a win to close out the series in round 1. Games 4 and 5 are not the best for playing ATS for team to close it out but it is not overly bad but I think there are better spots then this. Pass.
OKC with series tied 2-2 the series winner wins game 5..... 82% of the time. Both PR's have OKC the better team, OKC has one of the best shooting efficiency margins in history playing at home and they are off a poor shooting performance. Shooting efficiency has the highest correlation to victory and the highest predictive value........ play is on OKC.
OKC -4 over Mavs --- 2.2 units
2
Posted:
#113
MY LINES ....................................
Twolves -5.85 over Nuggets
Nuggets off 3 ATS wins and very near a regression fade and Joker coming off an all-time great performance after 2 other strong games and with Twolves 0-2 SU & ATS at home this sure has the look of a peak for the Nuggets. Bad, bad spot for the Nuggets. With both teams having the common denominators of champs these are the types of series go to 7 games. And with my lines clearly on the Wolves ................the play is on the Twolves.
Twolves -2 (-112) over Nuggets --- 2.2 units
3
Posted:
#116
1-0, won 2 units
playoffs --- 14-9-1, won 7.45 units
correcting a mistake in units won.
after a 1-6 start, 13-3-1 since.
Yea baby, Twolves roll. Pretty obvious Nuggets didn't bother to show up, they expended so much energy, effort and focus to overcome a 0-2 deficit they had nothing left in the tank. Not sure that big blowout win will be good for the Twolves in game 7, the truly championship quality teams generally don't regress after 1 big win but 45 pt wins are pretty rare.
0
Posted:
#117
MY LINES ...................................................
Pacers -3.27 over Knicks
These 2 teams off back-to-back 30 pt wins, 1 by Pacers (32) and 1 by Knicks (30), the 3 other games a 4, 5 and 9 pt win. I think we see a close game tonight. With 2 teams pretty evenly matched and neither having the common denominators of champs these are the type of series go to 7 games. With a -6 Pacers have room to win but not cover. With the Knicks injury maybe my line is no play but if the line were to rise after these two 30 pt wins, goes to 7 I'll most likely back the Knicks. Pass for now.
3
Posted:
#119
MY LINES ...................................game 6
Iran the numbers in Mavs final 26 games after the trades. The new players played in 29 games but I gave them 3 games to adjust to the Mavs.
OKC -1.4 over Mavs ...........end of season
Mavs -2.51 ................using Mavs final 26 games only
PR I ..........................
OKC 7.21
Mavs 5.72
PR II ..............................
Mavs 52.55
OKC 52.34
both the Mavs shooting efficiency and rebounding improved, to the point they would have the common denominators of champions. But kind of minimal qualifying in both. I'm not sure if being minimal in both is a good thing or not, most teams are at least much better then minimal in one of the two with maybe one being minimal, that's ok.
And remember that is only over 26 games, may or may not be sustainable. But we should take that into consideration for sure. At this point they look more like the final 26 game team.
0
Posted:
#120
Mavs in a close-out game. The spot favors Mavs if they are to win series, winning in game 6 at home is pretty common when the road team wins the series. OKC being in regression, this is a spot favors them. Teams in regression coming off their 3rd ATS loss over a short stretch of games, 4 here, are great spots to back them.
OKC has played poorly offensively the past 2 games, 25% on 3's and 25.9% on 3's which is understandable for a team in regression but now being in a spot that produces ATS wins for teams coming out of regression I'd look for OKC to shoot much better.
With the past 3 games all going under and by a pretty good amount as OKC scores 100 and 92 pts and the 92 pts being the fewest OKC scored this playoffs, looks like a peak to the bottom. And now the total Adjusted way down off game1 and game 3 the first game in Dallas.
I'll take those about 10 extra pts and back the over.
OKC/Mavs OVER 208.5 --- 1.1 units
pending futures ...........................
OKC to win series over Maves +110 --- 1 unit
2
Posted:
#121
Thunder were the better 3 point shooting team this year but have only outshot Dallas from 3 in the first game, which was a home blowout. Game 3 was even 33%. Mavs out shot them from 3 by a large margin in game 4 and still lost at home, surprisingly. If the 2 teams shot their averages from 3 OKC would be looking much better. They are getting open looks and not hitting . Could be a young tram , first time in playoffs feeling the nerves or could just be an anomaly.
If they shoot well from 3 they should win this game, that is if they rebound decently; another issue that seems to be down this series
1
Posted:
#123
Quote Originally Posted by LVPrince:
Thunder were the better 3 point shooting team this year but have only outshot Dallas from 3 in the first game, which was a home blowout. Game 3 was even 33%. Mavs out shot them from 3 by a large margin in game 4 and still lost at home, surprisingly. If the 2 teams shot their averages from 3 OKC would be looking much better. They are getting open looks and not hitting . Could be a young tram , first time in playoffs feeling the nerves or could just be an anomaly. If they shoot well from 3 they should win this game, that is if they rebound decently; another issue that seems to be down this series
Thunder were the better 3 point shooting team this year but have only outshot Dallas from 3 in the first game, which was a home blowout. Game 3 was even 33%. Mavs out shot them from 3 by a large margin in game 4 and still lost at home, surprisingly. If the 2 teams shot their averages from 3 OKC would be looking much better. They are getting open looks and not hitting . Could be a young tram , first time in playoffs feeling the nerves or could just be an anomaly. If they shoot well from 3 they should win this game, that is if they rebound decently; another issue that seems to be down this series
OKC shooting 41.7 % on 3's at the Half. Mavs like 38%, not bad but OKC with 24 attempts to like 13 for Mavs, 5 more makes for OKC
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