Public Indicator Calculations 2023

lots of changes it seems

Let's go baby. Uncle Daran needs a new EV.

Morning Update.  Likely last of the day so if you see line moves etc things could slightly alter indicators.  Also, shop for spreads.  I will call out 2 evening games as LSU can now once again be gotten for 3.5 and Southern Cal is shrinking to 2.5 in most places but can be gotten for 3 at Caesars and a few others.  

@HooAlum

Morning Update.  Likely last of the day so if you see line moves etc things could slightly alter indicators.  Also, shop for spreads.  I will call out 2 evening games as LSU can now once again be gotten for 3.5 and Southern Cal is shrinking to 2.5 in most places but can be gotten for 3 at Caesars and a few others.  

Air Force has also won 13 straight games overall, matching the program's longest winning streak that bridged the 1984-85 seasons. Plus, Mile High Stadium in Denver. Going to be a wiping of the Army slate.

@HooAlum

@meatwhistle

 air force looking like a loser. sorry. however the late move to a consensus 3 may come home in a now play for K state in OT. finger’s crossed. upset that the buckeyes did a backdoor push. rutgers deserved the win 

Ouch!!

@HooAlum

 It is so much more fun to type these emails after a week like 2 weeks ago as opposed to this last week.  Yes, worst week of the season.  Overall went 7-8 so does not seem bad (it moved from 6-8 to 7-8 because - no joke I did not include bye week indicators but before you go Ohhhh you are making yourself look better while Missouri moves from a push to an outright win, Purdue goes from a 2 unit win to a 1 unit win so it evened out in the place where it counts).  However, the big unit plays: Iowa St and LSU were big losers so the week was a big loser. 

WEEKLY RECORD: 7-8

YEAR RECORD: 82-69 (54.3%)

WEEKLY REVENUE: 30.8 on 49 units wagered

YEARLY REVENUE: 500.6 units on 444 wagered (12.75% profit down from over 17% - yuck!)

Week 11

Alabama (4 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and sharp action

Penn St-Michigan (No Bet) - NO indicators

Miami (2 units) - sharp action and over/under squeeze outweighs low handle favorite

Utah (1 unit) - sharp action outweighs low handle favorite

Tennessee (9 units) - low ticket favorite, sharp action and heavy SKS

Georgia (2 units) - low ticket favorite (what else is new) and sharp action

LSU (3 units) - low ticket favorite and sharp action

TCU-Texas (NO Bet) - low ticket favorite balanced by sharp action

Ohio St (4 units) - lopsided wagering, low ticket favorite, and heavy sharp action outweighs heavy over/under squeeze

North Carolina (4 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs over/under squeeze

Southern Cal (1 unit) - sharp action

*****************

Indicator Performance

West Coast Road early start: 75%

Steam: 73.33%

SKS: 64.29%

Low Handle Favorite: 57.14% 

Low Bet Favorite: 55.58%

Sharp Action: 54.73%

Bye Week Return: 54.17%

Line Movement: 53.62%

Reverse Movement: 53.33%

Lopsided Wagering: 50%

Over/Under Squeeze: 38.89%

Style Points: 0% (0-2)

As another forum member always says, the best bets are the hardest ones to make and after last week these qualify! :)   Nobody wins every week, but the cappers always rebound! I'm rolling with ya!   

Meant to say "but the really good cappers always rebound!"

@HooAlum

Thursday Night Update - Louisville-Virginia did qualify but was a push with Virginia having lopsided wagering advantage and Louisville a mild sharp play.

Alabama (1 unit) - low handle favorite

Penn St-Michigan (No Bet) - NO indicators

NEW GAME: Colorado (1 unit) - sharp action

Miami (4 units) - reverse movement, sharp action and over/under squeeze outweighs low handle favorite

Utah (3 units) - line movement and sharp action 

Tennessee (4 units) -  sharp action and SKS (reduced from earlier)

Georgia (1 unit) - sharp action

LSU (2 units) - line movement low ticket favorite outweighs sharp action

Texas (6 units) - line movement, steam, low ticket favorite and sharp action

PICK CHANGE: Michigan St (3 units) - heavy over/under squeeze and sharp action

North Carolina (10 units) - line movement, low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering and heavy sharp action outweighs over/under squeeze

Southern Cal-Oregon (No Bet) - No Indicators

UTSA on the radar?

Keep up the great work 

@HooAlum

 Thank you for all the hard work and dedication you put in. Did well over the years with your plays.

@HooAlum

The lack of early week games was disappointing but given the NBA starting up and now NCAA basketball is up I can understand why MACtion and SMU-UNT is less appealing to betting public.

PICK CHANGE: Kentucky-Alabama (1 unit) - low handle favorite balanced by sharp action

Penn St (1 unit) - Sharp action (likely when the Harbaugh news came down)

NEW GAME: Texas Tech (2 units) - Heavy Sharp action and mild SKS outweighs low ticket and handle favorite

Colorado (1 unit) - sharp action

Miami (3 units) - Heavy sharp action and over/under squeeze outweighs low handle favorite

NEW GAME: UCF (2 units) - SKS and sharp action outweighs low handle favorite

NEW GAME: Iowa (4 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, sharp action (and no, I do not have a comment on the record breaking low total - line too close for the over/under squeeze)

Utah (2 units) - line movement and sharp action 

Tennessee (4 units) -  line movement, sharp action and mild SKS

PICK CHANGE: Ole Mis-Georgia (No Bet) - No Indicators 

NEW GAME: West Virginia-Oklahoma (No Bet) - low ticket favorite balanced by sharp action

LSU (4 units) - line movement low ticket & handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Texas (6 units) - line movement, steam, low ticket favorite and sharp action

Michigan St (2 units) - heavy over/under squeeze

BIG UNIT  REDUCTION: North Carolina (5 units) - line movement, low ticket favorite, and heavy sharp action outweighs over/under squeeze (major reduction in units_

Oregon (1 unit) -Sharp action

Morning noon updates

Kentucky (2 unit) - sharp[ action outweighs low handle favorite 

Penn St (1 unit) - Sharp action (likely when the Harbaugh news came down)

Texas Tech (3 units) - Sharp action and mild SKS 

@HooAlum

Here is early afternoon update

PICK CHANGE: Arizona (1 unit) - sharp action flipped 

Miami (1 units) - Heavy sharp action and over/under squeeze outweighs low ticket and handle favorite

UCF (4 units) - SKS and sharp action outweighs low handle favorite

Iowa (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Utah (2 units) - line movement and sharp action 

Tennessee (4 units) -  line movement, sharp action and mild SKS

PICK. CHANGE: Ole Miss (1 unit) - Sharp Action

West Virginia-Oklahoma (No Bet) - low ticket favorite balanced by sharp action

LSU (4 units) - line movement low ticket & handle favorite outweighs sharp action

UNIT REDUCTION: Texas (1 unit) - line movement, steam outweighs sharp action

Michigan St (3 units) - heavy over/under squeeze and sharp action

North Carolina (5 units) - line movement, low ticket favorite, and heavy sharp action outweighs over/under squeeze 

Oregon (3 units) -line movement and Sharp action

@HooAlum

and as a correction Kentucky was 1 unit, Penn St was 2 on the adjustment.  I was typing as I was running out the door.  Not a big deal as both are behind right now but wanted to clarify in case PSU makes a comeback.

why are you running out the door? You need to stay behind your computer all day monitoring this shit!

@HooAlum

 3:30 games

Miami (3 units) - Heavy sharp action and over/under squeeze outweighs low handle favorite

UCF (4 units) - SKS and sharp action outweighs low handle favorite

PICK CHANGE: Rutgers-Iowa (No Bet) - low handle favorite balanced by sharp action

Utah (2 units) - line movement and sharp action 

Tennessee (4 units) -  line movement, sharp action and mild SKS

@HooAlum

Evening update

Ole Miss (2 units) - Sharp Action

West Virginia-Oklahoma (No Bet) - low ticket favorite balanced by sharp action

LSU (4 units) - line movement low ticket & handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Texas (1 unit) - line movement, steam outweighs sharp action

Michigan St (2 units) - heavy over/under squeeze and sharp action outweighs line movement

North Carolina (2 units) - heavy sharp action outweighs over/under squeeze (wow what a change from 48 hours ago as 4 different ells have gone away)

Oregon (3 units) - line movement and Sharp action