Public Indicator Calculations 2023

@HooAlum

Just want to say thank you for your work! 

Good thread. A lot of research and hard work you put in is appreciated.

@HooAlum

A trend over the last several weeks is performing well early and tailing off at the end of the night.  I blamed some of that to not being able to update throughout the day to my satisfaction.  Well, no excuse last week as I was able to update throughout.  The result? 5-4 through the 3:30 games with big plays landing and being up strong in revenue earned.  The evening? 1-5 and the 1 win was a save at the death in LSU-Florida (though I am still bitter at UNC, Texas and Oregon for not finishing the job with big early leads - and UNC almost blew it outright - thank goodness the units plummeted in that one from 10 down to 2 during the week).  Speaking of early big plays  this week promises to be a big highly bet week as we have a lot of early big games and unlike Duke-UNC they are built on indicators that usually do not change a lot throughout the week.  Overall on a units basis while it was a loss, it still was not a disaster but need to get back off the canvas after back to back off weeks.

WEEKLY RECORD: 6-9

SEASON RECORD: 88-78 (53.01%)

WEEKLY REVENUE: 32.3 units on 35 wagered

SEASON REVENUE: 532.9 units on 479 wagered (11.25% profit)

WEEK 12

MACtion! Bowling Green-Toledo (No Bet) - despite a handle worthy of an an analysis no indicators for tonight.  Sorry.

Maryland (4 units) - lopsided wagering, sharp action and over/under squeeze

Miami (2 units) - lopsided wagering and small SKS outweigh sharp action

Utah (3 units) - early steam jumping the fence, low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Tennessee (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

Clemson (5 units) - strong SKS, low handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Southern Cal (4 units) - low handle favorite and strong sharp action

Kansas St (6 units) - low ticket favorite, strong sharp action and mild SKS

Oregon St (8 units) - strong SKS and sharp action (anyone who has followed this thread saw this pick coming from a mile away)

Texas (1 unit) - low ticket favorite

*************

Indicator Performance 

Early start time for Traveling West Coast team: 75% (watch OU-BYU this week)

Steam: 68.75%

SKS: 64.52%

Both Low Bet and Handle Favorite present: 59.09%

Low Bet Favorite: 57.14%

Low Handle Favorite: 56.58%

Bye week return 54.17%

Reverse Movement: 53.33%

Line Movement: 53.33%

Sharp Action Analysis: 52.19% (remember when this was above 60%? - this is the #1 culprit for the poor performance in weeks 10 and 11 - last week it was a putrid 9-18 weighted value)

Lopsided Wagering: 51.43% (finally above .500 for one of the most reliable indicators - 5 year won loss is 57.28%)

Over/Under Squeeze: 45.28% (remember when this was close to 30% - #1 saving grace the last couple of weeks)

Style Points: 25%

@HooAlum

Thursday Update as this is looking more and more like a big week 

Maryland (3 units) - lopsided wagering, sharp action and over/under squeeze

Miami (2 units) - lopsided wagering and small SKS outweigh sharp action

Utah (10 units) - early steam jumping the fence, low ticket and handle favorite and strong SKS

Tennessee (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

Clemson (6 units) - line movement, strong SKS, low handle favorite outweighs sharp action

NEW GAME: Iowa (1 unit): sharp action

PICK CHANGE: UCLA (2 units): sharp action outweighs low handle favorite

NEW GAME: Arizona St (6 units): extremely strong sharp action, lopsided wagering and over/under squeeze

Kansas St (9 units) - low ticket favorite, reverse movement, strong sharp action and SKS

Oregon St (6 units) - SKS and sharp action

NEW GAME: Wisconsin (6 units) - low ticket and handle favorite,, sharp action outweighs line movement

Texas (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs sharp action

Hey Hoo,

Are you sure about the Utah game? My plays typically align with you about ~80% of the time as we use similar methodologies, and for the times where we diverge, I typically chalk it up to natural variation of data or weighting. But for this game, you've assigned it a 10 UNIT play as of now, which implies some strength to the indicators. I'm just not seeing it from my end - from my view, tickets and handle are approximately evenly split and I did not observe any fence jumping - it appears the Arizona opened as a -1 and may have popped to -1.5, but its been relatively stable at -1.

Any thoughts or am I off base?

Oh whoops - my bad - now that I look closer, I did see the opening line was initially Utah -1 and now its Arizona -1.

@HooAlum

 Surprised last night did not produce a game and tonight really surprised me as I thought the magnetism of Prime along would do it. 

Instead we look to tomorrow.  Some early heavy plays have backed off (e.g. Greasy Fat's post above is spot on.  Utah now given up the fence jumping exercise in that one as the Beavers take it back and as a result is mixes up everything)

Maryland (4 units) - lopsided wagering, sharp action and over/under squeeze

Miami (2 units) - lopsided wagering and small SKS outweigh sharp action

NEW GAME: SMU (1 unit) - line movement 

UNIT CHANGE: Utah (2 units) - mild SKS and sharp action outweighs steam & jumping the fence now to Zona

PICK CHANGE: Tennessee-Georgia (No Bet) - lopsided wagering and sharp action conflict

Clemson (6 units) - line movement, strong SKS, low handle favorite outweighs sharp action

PICK CHANGE: Illinois: line movement and strong sharp action

UCLA (1 unit): sharp action outweighs low handle favorite

NEW GAME: UNLV (1 unit) - line movement and sharp action outweigh low handle favorite, 

PICK CHANGE: Oregon-Arizona St (No Bet) - Line Movement and low handle favorite outweighs sharp action and over/under squeeze

Kansas St (9 units) - low ticket favorite, reverse movement, strong sharp action and SKS

Oregon St (7 units) - SKS and sharp action

NEW GAME: Missouri (1 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Wisconsin (5 units) - low ticket and handle favorite,, sharp action

PICK CHANGE: Iowa St-Texas (No Bet) - low ticket and handle favorite, balanced by heavy sharp action

@HooAlum

 I just have to ask which website or websites do you look at in determining your analysis or do you work behind a counter at a sportsbook? 

By far the best information on covers! Thanks for all of your hard work.  

@HooAlum

 Well, had a series of posts delayed by the server given that I am on an international flight.  Some good developments (Maryland gained a unit, Arizona officially jumped the fence to change the pick and Louisville betting trends went to under valued favorite once it jumped the fence this morning abs others were negative (SMU gained units in their loss).  Here is the latest

Tennessee (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

Clemson (11 units) - line movement, strong SKS, low ticket and handle favorite

Illinois (4 units): line movement and strong sharp action

UCLA (1 unit): sharp action outweighs low handle favorite

UNLV-Air Force (No Bet) - line movement outweigh low handle favorite

Minnesota-Ohio St (NO Bet) - low ticket favorite balanced with over/under squeeze

Arizona St (1 unit) - Line Movement outweighed by sharp action and over/under squeeze

Cal (3 units)  - low ticket and handle favorite

Kansas St (9 units) - low ticket favorite, reverse movement, strong sharp action and SKS

Oregon St (8 units) - SKS and very strong sharp action

Missouri (2 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Wisconsin (4 units) - low ticket favorite, sharp action

Iowa St-Texas (No Bet) - low ticket and handle favorite, balanced by heavy sharp action

Kansas State -7 now 

Why the 3 point drop??

@witswits

 Looks like Bean is going to play

That line dropping 3 just prior to game time spooked me. 

Momma said there would be days like this.

Lets get them next week.

@HooAlum

 Had a winning week but many who follow might have lost sonly went 1-2 in the big 3 plays, but the biggest with Clemson came home along with the majority of the week.  but once agin, I started out strong and stumbled down the stretch taking away what would have been a VERY profitable week.  Once again OT goes my way to clinch a very god week as the Badgers bpull one out of a hat.

WEEKLY RECORD: 10-6

SEASON RECORD: 98-84 (53.85%)

WEEKLY REVENUE: 70.3 units on 60 wagered

SEASON REVENUE: 603.2 won on 538 wagered (12.12%)

TUESDAY LOOK

Mississippi St (2 units) - lopsided wagering and sharp action

Nebraska (4 units)- SKS

Oklahoma (2 units) - lopsided wagering, low ticket and handle on Favorite outweighs heavy sharp action

Texas (2 units) - lopsided wagering, low ticket and handle on Favorite outweighs sharp action and over/under squeeze

Michigan St (2 units) - lopsided wagering and sharp action

Oregon St (1 unit) - sharp action outweighs low handle favorite

Michigan (6 units) -  lopsided wagering, low ticket and handle on Favorite and sharp action

Texas A&M (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

Wisconsin (4 units) - low ticket favorite, heavy sharp action

Alabama (1 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action and over/under squeeze

Washington St (1 unit) - sharp action outweighs low handle favorite

Florida St (2 units) - low ticket and low handle favorite outweighs sharp action

South Carolina (1 unit) - sharp action

North Carolina (3 units) - low ticket favorite and sharp action

***************

Indicator performance

West Coast early start traveling: 75%

Steam: 72.22%

SKS: 61.54%

Both Low ticket and handle favorite: 59.09%

Low Ticket Favorite: 58.97%

Low Handle Favorite:56.98%

Line Movement: 55.42%

Bye Week return: 54.17%

Lopsided Wagering: 52.78%

Sharp Action Analysis: 52%

Reverse Movement: 50%

Over/Under Squeeze: 44.64%

Style Points: 42.86%

Hey Hoo!!!!

I completely agree regarding Michigan just based on the fact that EVERYONE on Covers loves Ohio State this week. Michigan has been holding back and been extremely vanilla on purpose the last two weeks. Michigan will be grinding this game out and limiting possessions for Ohio State. Michigan 20-13.

What do you have on Tulane v UTSA? 

I have another Conference Title Scenarios thread so I want to know what the most impactful games look like. I’m also with you on Oregon State!

Nice work on all the great info 

@Moose1986

 If the majority of covers is how you calculate or determine who wins football games, I would tell you Ive seen more people on Michigan including a few of the good ones. 

@HooAlum

Thursday Update.  Added a big game that makes me worried.  Miami with 11 units??? and Chris Falica (an alum who theoretically should know what is up went with BC.  Oh boy - also the lopsided wagering could go away weakening the play but it still is huge right now) 

Mississippi St (2 units) - lopsided wagering and sharp action

NEW GAME: Miami (11 units) - line movement, lopsided wagering, low ticket and handle favorite, reverse movement and sharp action outweigh over/under squeeze

Nebraska (6 units)- SKS and sharp action

Oklahoma (2 units) - lopsided wagering, low ticket and handle on Favorite outweighs heavy sharp action

Texas (2 units) - lopsided wagering, low ticket and handle on Favorite outweighs sharp action and over/under squeeze

Michigan St (2 units) - lopsided wagering and over/under squeeze outweighs sharp action

PICK CHANGE: Oregon (1 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Michigan (7 units) -  lopsided wagering, low ticket and handle on Favorite and sharp action

NEW GAME: Kentucky-Louisville (NO Bet) low handle balanced by sharp action

PICK CHANGE: Texas A&M-LSU (No Bet) - lopsided wagering balanced by sharp action

Wisconsin (2 units) - sharp action

Alabama (1 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action and over/under squeeze

Washington St (2 units) - heavy sharp action outweighs low handle favorite

Florida St (3 units) - low ticket and low handle favorite

PICK CHANGE: South Carolina-Clemson (No Bet) - low handle favorite balanced by sharp action

North Carolina (3 units) - low ticket favorite and sharp action

@HooAlum

 Big Move in the Egg bowl line.  That movement reducing the spread is actually reverse movement.  Combined with lopsided wagering (very rare that reverse movement is combined with extremely uneven betting) that propels the play all the way up to 6 units.  Watch the line.  If it shifts back then it goes back to the original 2 unit Olay but it has become a big one for now.  Try to catch at 10.5 or 10 as it is still hanging on at select books. 

You mean you're playing ole miss -10?

Or this line reverse means you play miss state?

@hart31

 he’s playing miss st according to his post on #246 for 2 units but now it’s 6 units

OK thks