Public Indicator Calculations 2023

@HooAlum

 Awesome information, always look for your posts on here. Thank you for providing all this

I wonder if using blowout games against the spread would be more relevant? Example, team wins or loses against spread an excess of 24 points. This might be more relevant as a book , public shade; especially if that team was heavily bet by the public that game and still lost by such a large margin. This would tend to make the public fade them in disgust. Might be worth tracking

@HooAlum

Here is the Thursday night update.  yes, Virginia tech kept their tells so that is looking good.  Plus, if you held off until tonight you got an extra point, not that you will need it.  I expect a lot of sharp action reports to come in tomorrow.

WEEK 9 GAMES

Virginia Tech (5 units) - lopsided wagering, low ticket and handle favorite 

Kansas-Oklahoma (No bet) - low ticket and handle favorite balanced sharp action and bye week return

NC State (1 unit) - line movement and over/under squeeze outweighs low handle favorite

Louisville (3 units) - low ticket favorite, bye week return and sharp action

Oregon (3 units) - mild SKS and sharp action

Georgia (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite  outweighs over/under squeeze

Kentucky-Tennessee (No bet) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action and bye week return

UCLA (2 units) - low ticket favorite and sharp action outweighs bye week return

Wisconsin-Ohio st (No bet) - Low ticket favorite balanced with over/under squeeze

Fresno (1 unit) - low ticket favorite and bye week return outweighs line movement 

Oregon St (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite

@LVPrince

 yes, I am tracking it and like you am quite surprised at the result as this season it is only 4-7.  Its 5 year total is only 36-38.  I still track it because common sense would say to follow it.  I have come to conclusion that a team that is blown out the week before just simply sucks.  They are what they are.

@HooAlum

Here is the Friday midday update.  More sharp reports have come in and handle has risen enough to qualify a few games.

WEEK 9 GAMES

PICK CHANGE: Kansas (1 unit) - heavy sharp action and bye week return outweighs low ticket and handle favorite

NC State (1 unit) - line movement and over/under squeeze outweighs low handle favorite

Louisville (3 units) - bye week return and sharp action

Oregon (4 units) - mild SKS and sharp action

PICK CHANGE: Florida-Georgia (No bet) - low ticket and handle favorite balanced by sharp action and over/under squeeze

NEW GAME: BYU (1 unit) - heavy sharp action and over/under squeeze outweighs low ticket and handle favorite

PICK CHANGE: Kentucky (3 units) - heavy sharp action and bye week return outweighs low handle favorite

UCLA (3 units) - low ticket favorite and heavy sharp action outweighs bye week return

PICK CHANGE: Ohio St (1 unit) - Low ticket favorite and sharp action outweighs over/under squeeze

NEW GAME: Georgia Tech (2 units) - heavy sharp action outweighs low handle favorite

NEW GAME: Oklahoma State (2 units) - lopsided wagering, low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Fresno (2 unit) - low ticket favorite, sharp action, and bye week return outweighs line movement 

Oregon St (1 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Texas A&M looking good. 

Thanks Hoo

Appreciate you brother

@HooAlum

Friday night update.  Hope to be a little more active tomorrow than I have been the last couple of weeks.

NEW GAME: Wake Forest-Florida St (No Bet) - line movement and low handle favorite outweighs sharp action and over/under squeeze

PICK CHANGE: Kansas-Oklahoma (No bet) - sharp action and bye week return balanced by low ticket and handle favorite

NEW GAME: Indiana (1 unit) - strong over/under squeeze outweighs sharp action

NC State (1 unit) - line movement and over/under squeeze outweighs low handle favorite

Louisville (5 units) - line movement, steam, bye week return and sharp action

Oregon (5 units) - mild SKS and sharp action

Florida-Georgia (No bet) - low ticket and handle favorite balanced by sharp action and over/under squeeze

NEW GAME: Notre Dame (1 unit) - low handle favorite and bye week return outweighs over/under squeeze

PICK CHANGE: Texas (1 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite and steam outweighs heavy sharp action and over/under squeeze

Kentucky (2 units) - sharp action and bye week return outweighs low handle favorite

NEW GAME: Stanford-Washington lopsided wagering and sharp action balanced out

UCLA (1 unit) - low ticket favorite and sharp action outweighs line movement and bye week return

Ohio St (1 unit) - Low ticket favorite and sharp action outweighs over/under squeeze

PICK CHANGE: North Carolina (1 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Oklahoma State (2 units) - lopsided wagering, low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Fresno (2 units) - low ticket favorite, sharp action, and bye week return outweighs line movement 

Oregon St (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

@4headies

 handle is too low right now for me to post but running the numbers if it were eligible I would concur and say Aggies 3 units

Let's go man. Got to dream the big steam.

@HooAlum

Noon games and glad I am posting as there is one HUGE movement.  Grab teh Jayhwks as high as you can get them.  +8 is still out there.

Wake Forest-Florida St (No Bet) - line movement and low handle favorite outweighs sharp action and over/under squeeze

PICK CHANGE Kansas (4 units) - line movement, steam, heavy sharp action and bye week return outweighs by low ticket (barely). and low handle favorite

Indiana (2 units) - strong over/under squeeze

Early afternoon update to level set all the games on the board.  A few BIG swings.

PICK CHANGE: Clemson (1 unit) - low ticket and handle efavroite outweighs line movement and over/under squeeze

Louisville (6 units) - line movement, steam, bye week return and sharp action

Oregon (5 units) - mild SKS, sharp action, low handle favorite

PICK CHANGE: Florida (1 unit) -heavy sharp action and over/uncer squeeze outweighs  low ticket and handle favorite 

PICK CHANGE: Pitt (1 unit) - over/under squeeze and sharp action outweighs low handle favorite and bye week return

PICK CHANGE: BYU-Texas (No Bet) - low ticket and handle favorite and steam balanced by sharp action and over/under squeeze

PICK CHANGE: Kentucky-Tennessee (No Bet) - low ticket and handle; favorite balanced by sharp action and bye week return 

NEW GAME: Air Force (3 units) - line movement, low ticket favorite and sharp action outweigh over/under squeeze

PICK CHANGE: Washington (2 units) sharp action and line movement outweigh lopsided wagering

PICK CHANGE: Colorado-UCLA (No Bet) - sharp action balanced by line movement and bye week return

Ohio St (2 units) - Low ticket and handle favorite outweighs over/under squeeze

North Carolina (1 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Oklahoma State (3 units) - lopsided wagering, low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

NOTED CHANGE: Fresno St (6 units) - line movement (flipped) low ticket favorite, sharp action, and bye week return 

Oregon St (1 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

@HooAlum

 Texas had some late sharp action and now is at 2 units over BYU

@HooAlum

A very solid week on the money even if the record was mediocre.  It is a perfect time to reemphasize that I am boiling the ocean on the most bet games so if you want to put action down o the game of your choice it can serve as a guide.  The unit announcements show where the best plays are if you are picking and choosing.  

LAST WEEK RECORD: 9-8

LAST WEEK REVENUE: 58.9 units on 44 wagered

SEASON RECORD: 75-61 (55.15%)

SEASON REVENUE: 469.8 on 395 wagered (18.94% profit)

WEEK 10 GAMES - we get started wit MACtion tonight - though not that crazy on the numbers

Central Michigan-Northern Illinois (No Bet) - line movement balanced by lopsided wagering

Toledo (1 unit) - Line movement and low handle favorite outweighs over/under squeeze

Ole Miss (1 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Kansas St-Texas (No bet) - low handle favorite balanced by sharp action

Oklahoma (6 units) - low ticket and handle, lopsided wagering and sharp action

Georgia (4 units) - low ticket and handle favorite (amazing how Georgia is sooo disrespected by the public - it is every freakin' week) outweighs sharp action

Washington (5 units) - low ticket and handle, lopsided wagering

LSU (3 units) - SKS and sharp action outweighs low handle favorite

Colorado-Oregon St (No Bet) - lopsided wagering balances sharp action

********************

2023 Indicator Performance

Steam 76.92%

SKS: 73.91%

Low Handle Favorite: 62.71%

Low Bet Favorite: 59.02%

Sharp Assessment: 56.4%

Bye Week Return: 54.55%

Line Movement 53.45%

Reverse Movement: 53.33%

Lopsided Wagering: 50%

Over/Under Squeeze: 34.38%

I always appreciate your posts. Thanks and good luck this week! 

I do look forward to the info and use it accordingly with my plays. great stuff and Thanks for the weekly work you put in.

Toledo started the week off right (and low ticket came in late as well bumping up the return even if the over/under squeeze continues to be a drag on the analysis)

Still not many games popping yet but they will start to do so over the next 24 hours.  I would be very surprised if our Thursday night clashes did not make the list

PICK CHANGE: Texas A&M-Ole Miss (No Bet) - low ticket favorite outweighs sharp action

Kansas St-Texas (No bet) - low handle favorite balanced by sharp action

Oklahoma (5 units) - low ticket and handle, lopsided wagering

Georgia (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

PICK CHANGE: Southern Cal (1 unit) - sharp action (amazing how the percentages swung so violently in 24 hours - I guess a lot of Washington bettors woke up)

LSU (6 units) - SKS and heavy sharp action 

PICK CHANGE: Oregon St (1 unit) - sharp action

I made my biggest bet so far this year on Alabama -3 and posted it. Now im wondering if I should get off. I had the game lined at -6 so I just jumped on the -3. Maybe it was too good to be true now reading this

@Yanasaur

 Big mistake.

How do you find the ticket and handle in your research? That’s showing how many people are betting right? Thanks bro!!

Disregard went back n looked at first post. GL

@HooAlum

 We do add one of the games tonight. . . BUT the indicators conflict

NEW GAME: Wake Forest-Duke (No Bet) - line movement and steam balanced with low ticket and handle favorite

We do add one of the games tonight. . . BUT the indicators conflict

NEW GAME: Wake Forest-Duke (No Bet) - line movement and steam balanced with low ticket and handle favorite

PICK CHANGE: Texas A&M (5 units) - line movement, steam, lopsided wagering and sharp action outweighs low handle favorite

Kansas St-Texas (No bet) - low handle favorite balanced by line movement

Oklahoma (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite

Georgia (1 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action and line movement

Southern Cal (1 unit) - sharp action

LSU (7 units) - line movement, SKS and heavy sharp action 

Oregon St (3 units) - heavy sharp action

We do add one of the games tonight. . . BUT the indicators conflict

NEW GAME: Wake Forest-Duke (No Bet) - line movement and steam balanced with low ticket and handle favorite

PICK CHANGE: Texas A&M (5 units) - line movement, steam, lopsided wagering and sharp action outweighs low handle favorite

Kansas St-Texas (No bet) - low handle favorite balanced by line movement

Oklahoma (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite

Georgia (1 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action and line movement

Southern Cal (1 unit) - sharp action

LSU (7 units) - line movement, SKS and heavy sharp action 

Oregon St (3 units) - heavy sharp action

Bitter I did not pull the trigger on Texas tech as the handle did not make until right before game time.  Thus, it will not count but was a nice 3 unit play had it qualified.  (I am sure there were a number of games in similar fashion that lost and not won but you remember the lost chances not the saves).  right now BC-Syracuse has also not reached the handle but am watching as the Cuse has a 2 unit advantage at present.

Lot of new games added nonetheless:

NEW GAME: Rutgers (2 units) - sharp action and over/under squeeze

Texas A&M (5 units) - line movement, steam, lopsided wagering and sharp action outweighs low handle favorite

PICK CHANGE: Kansas St (2 units) - line movement and sharp action outweighs low handle favorite

NEW GAME: Clemson (1 unit) - sharp action outweighs low handle favorite

NEW GAME: Air Force (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite with lopsided wagering outweighs sharp action

NEW GAME: Pitt (3 units) - sharp action and over/under squeeze outweighs low handle favorite

NEW GAME: Maryland (4 units) - line movement, steam and sharp action outweighs low handle favorite

NEW GAME: Virginia Tech (3 units) - lopsided wagering and sharp action

Oklahoma (4 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and sharp action outweighs line movement

PICK CHANGE: Missouri-Georgia (No Bet) - low ticket and handle favorite balanced by sharp action and line movement

NEW GAME: Iowa St (7 units) - was waiting on this one to qualify, it has been Cyclones all week, SKS, line movement and sharp action outweighs lopsided wagering

Southern Cal (3 units) - heavy sharp action

NEW GAME: Mississippi St-Kentucky (No Bet) - lopsided wagering balanced by line movement

NEW GAME: Purdue (3 units) - lopsided wagering, over/under squeeze and sharp action outweigh line movement 

LSU (9 units) - line movement, SKS, lopsided wagering & sharp action 

Oregon St (3 units) - heavy sharp action

NEW GAME: Arizona (1 unit) - heavy sharp action outweighs line movement