Public Indicator Calculations 2023

@HooAlum

 Tonight have a couple of big plays at present

Oklahoma St (5 units) - reverse movement and over/under squeeze with line movement.  Caesars/William Hill is an outlier an giving the Pokes 12 while many others (e.g. FanDuel) are at 10.5.  11 is an underrated final score differential 

Illinois (6 units) - low ticket and handle favorite with lopsided wagering.  It has moved down to 3 everywhere.  Safe that it will stay there and could drop further.

Don't be surprised if Okl St wins outright.

@HooAlum

Oof!  I love your analysis, HooAlum, but Illinois hates me.  I’ll stay away from that game so as not to jinx it for everyone else.

@HooAlum

Here are the Friday night picks.  I am on travel tomorrow so may update on the plane but my usual morning analysis right before noon kickoff will likely not occur.  As a replacement look at Patrick Everson's X/twitter feed (formerly of Covers.com).  His tweetstorm at 10am EST is gold.  I pull a lot of my late morning updates by the data he shares and the called sharp play.

Lot of new games added as I wanted to add those o the fence now in case they are missed by my absence

LSU (5 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and strong SKS outweighs sharp action and line movement

OU-Texas (No Bet) - Biggest game of the day has no indicators popping

Ohio St (3 units) - low ticket favorite, sharp action and bye week return

UCLA (4 units) - low ticket favorite, sharp action and SKS

NEW GAME: Syracuce-North Carolina (No Bet) sharp action balanced out by bye week return

NEW GAME: Virginia Tech (3 units): heavy sharp action and over/under squeeze outweighs bye week return and low handle favorite

Texas A&M (2 units) - Line movement and sharp action

Vanderbilt (1 unit) - over/under squeeze outweighs low handle favorite

NEW GAME: Arizona St (5 units) - line movement, reverse movement, sharp action (you knew this game's handle would qualify eventually)

Georgia (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and sharp action outweighs over/under squeeze

Louisville (2 units) - lopsided wagering

NEW GAME: Ole Miss (1 unit) - low handle favorite

NEW GAME: Minnesota (6 units) - lopsided wagering, reverse movement and over/under squeeze

NEW GAME: Miami (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and bye week return outweighs sharp action

NEW GAME: Fresno St (2 units) - low ticket favorite and sharp action

(watching the wacky numbers in Baylor Texas Tech - the handle is so low it is scaring me off but  oh my gosh is Baylor a huge play if you want to go there - I just do not 100% trust the data at present  - plus it is just plain wacky lopsided numbers- but it could be a 7-8 unit play on the Bears if it makes it overnight)

Southern Cal (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite

[Quote: Originally Posted by mrusso]Don't be surprised if Okl St wins outright.

No surprise at all, +350 ML too. Congrats Okl St backers

@HooAlum

Absolute shoutout to the two posters to the thread.  Oklahoma St very good call mrusso.  Smart to stay away from Illinois bwestaustin1.  I should listen to you guys.  Sounds like both of you had profitable nights.  

Also public service announcement.  You know how I laid the groundwork on Baylor-Texas Tech's wacky spread, saying watch for Baylor.  Well, the oddsmakers saw what I did and so the game jumped the fence on that one overnight so that it much more normal. No need to bet on that one.  Off the books it presently is now Texas Tech and 1 unit but handle is so low I am not calling it out as an official pick.

As mentioned this may be the last update of the the day so I won't be able to alert to changes.  As I always say, shop for the best lines and watch the line movement.  If you see line movement, it may change these picks so adjust your betting strategy accordingly

LSU (5 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and strong SKS outweighs sharp action and line movement

OU-Texas (No Bet) - Biggest game of the day has no indicators popping

Ohio St (2 units) - sharp action and bye week return

UCLA (4 units) - low ticket favorite, sharp action and SKS

Syracuce-North Carolina (No Bet) sharp action balanced out by bye week return

Virginia Tech (2 units): sharp action and over/under squeeze outweighs bye week return and low handle favorite

Texas A&M (2 units) - Line movement and sharp action

Vanderbilt (1 unit) - over/under squeeze outweighs low handle favorite

Arizona St (5 units) - line movement, reverse movement, sharp action (you knew this game's handle would qualify eventually)

Georgia (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and sharp action outweighs over/under squeeze

Louisville (2 units) - lopsided wagering

Arkansas-Ole Miss (No Bet) - low handle favorite balanced by sharp action

Minnesota (6 units) - lopsided wagering, reverse movement and over/under squeeze

Miami (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and bye week return outweighs sharp action

Fresno St (2 units) - low ticket favorite and sharp action

Southern Cal (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Good luck today with the plays.

Love this thread! Thank you for everything @HooAlum

@HooAlum

Betting on your Minnesota read, HooAlum. Got the Gophers +19.5 points on GambetDC.

Rough night for the Gophers but thank you for always posting this. I really appreciate it!

@HooAlum

 With the games going Tuesday you have any plays or opinions.

Great cappin and write up.

@HooAlum

Alright another solid week except Minnesota-Michigan.  Yeah that one did not work out so well.  Sorry bwestaustin and others.  However, the other nice plays came home even if they were on the lucky side (I am looking at you LSU with the Pick 6 last minute cover).  Unfortunately wits wits the games on Tuesday (and early Wednesday) do not seem to be building for the handle to make it measureable.  Hoping Houston-West Virginia on Thursday gets there.  It appears post season baseball is taking a lot of bettors presently.

SEASON RECORD: 54-40; weekly record 9-7

SEASON REVENUE: 343.2 units on 284 wagered (20.85% profit)

Tulane (9 units) - yes wow!  Let's wait though before jumping on it.  We have lopsided wagering with a low ticket and low handle favorite along with positive line movement.  Don't know if all that will remain.

Colorado (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs bye week return

Arkansas (2 units) - over/under squeeze (which as you can see has been awful this year - I am on the verge of really deemphasizing)

Tennessee (6 units) - ridiculously low ticket and handle on the Vols leading to lopsided wagering and a bye week return outweighing mild sharp action

Florida (1 unit) - lopsided wagering outweighs bye week return

Washington (2 units) - sharp action

LSU (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs bye week return

Missouri (1 unit) - sharp action

Miami-North Carolina (NO Bet) - no indicators 

Notre Dame (3 units) - SKS and low handle favorite

UCLA (2 unit) - sharp action

**********

Indicator performance to date

SKS: 93%!!!!

Steam: 71%

West Coast travel early start: 66.67%

Low Handle Favorite: 63.64%

Low Ticket Favorite: 62.16%

Sharp Action: 61.8%

Reverse Movement: 50%

Bye Week Return 50%

Line Movement: 48.6%

Lopsided Wagering: 44%

Over/Under Squeeze: 35%

@HooAlum

 Here is the Thursday update with the games tonight reaching handle status to now count but only one is betable presently.

NEW GAME: Houston-West Virginia (No Bet): No indicator

NEW GAME: East Carolina (2 units): lopsided wagering and over/under squeeze outweighs low handle favorite (yes the tickets and handle are very skewed here indicating a stronger than 2 unit play if some sharp reports come in late)

Tulane (5 units) - low ticket and low handle favorite along with positive line movement.  It is lower but still a nice play

Colorado (1 unit) - line movement and low handle favorite outweighs bye week return

NEW GAME: Florida St (1 unit) - low ticket and low handle favorite outweighs strong sharp action

NEW GAME: Purdue (2 units) - over/under squeeze (ion you noticed this has been bad this year so be wary - I probably need to deemphasize even more than I have)

Alabama (3 units) -line movement and low ticket and handle favorite outweighs over/under squeeze 

Tennessee (5 units) - ridiculously low ticket and handle on the Vols leading to lopsided wagering and a bye week return outweighing sharp action

Florida (1 unit) - lopsided wagering outweighs bye week return

Washington (4 units) - low ticket favorite and strong sharp action

NEW GAME: Pitt-Louisville (No Bet) - strong indicators at crossways as low ticket low handle favorite balanced by very strong sharp action

LSU (6 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering and sharp action outweigh bye week return

Missouri (3 units) - lopsided wagering and sharp action

Miami (4 units) - lopsided wagering and sharp action

Notre Dame (2 units) - SKS and low handle favorite

NEW GAME: NS State (8 units) - Been eyeing this game all week as my big play.  Just was waiting for the handle to get there and it now has. line movement, reverse movement, lopsided wagering, SKS outweigh bye week return.

UCLA (1 unit) - sharp action

@HooAlum

 NS State?

@td33mvp

 Your stuff is very similar to my own approach which is to do a deep market read in addition to more traditional approach with CFB analytics.

I have noticed that when your stuff lines up with my own, the results are in the 60 - 62 pct range ATS.

I have decided to abandon my own much cruder approach to reading the market and replace it with your stuff and keep my analytic based component.

IF you ever decide to go commercial, please keep in the loop.  Your stuff is much too valuable to be giving away.

@td33mvp

 Was wondering the same thing

@td33mvp

@Contrarian

 Likely NC state

Here is to another winning week. Thanks for all the work you put in. Simply great work.

@HooAlum

Friday night update.  Might update again later tonight but wanted these games in especially with Tulane once again getting lopsided movement and then losing it again literally while I am typing really making the amount volatile between 5 units and 9 units.  I might add to those wondering, Yes, NC State over Duke.  Sorry about that.  Good news is that the play is still good, bad news is that the line moved from 3.5 to 3 in most places.  PointsBet is the last common online book holdout at 3.5.  Though if you are in Vegas some of my favorite places like SouthPoint are still good to go at that key number.

@HooAlum

 Lopsided went away in Stanford buffs. No bet now

@HooAlum

Well, this is likely the last update before games as I am on travel again tomorrow morning.  Tonight showed why you sometimes want up to the date as Colorado seems like they will cover and so the pullback 20 minutes before gametime was valuable.

Good luck to everyone.

Syracuse (1 unit) - sharp action outweighs low handle favorite

UNIT CHANGE Purdue (5 units) - over/under squeeze, sharp action, steam and line movement outweighs low ticket favorite

Arkansas (1 unit) - over/under squeeze outweighs line movement

Tennessee (1 unit) - low ticket and handle on favorite and a bye week return outweighing heavy sharp action

Florida (1 unit) - lopsided wagering outweighs bye week return

Washington (5 units) - low ticket favorite and strong sharp action

Wisconsin (2 units) - low ticket favorite and line movement 

Louisville (No Bet) - low ticket low handle favorite outweighs strong sharp action

LSU (1 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action and bye week return

Missouri-Kentucky (No bet) - no active indicators

North Carolina-Miami (No Bet) - Line movement balanced against mild sharp action

Notre Dame (3 units) - SKS and sharp action

NC State (7 units) - line movement, reverse movement and very strong sharp action outweigh bye week return.

UCLA (1 unit) - sharp action

@HooAlum

 only noticeable overnight changes are relatively minor switching 1 unit plays so nothing dramatic.  Florida st is now 1 unit and Auburn is now 1 unit as opposed to Cuse and LSU being 1 unit.

Last thing before I sign off.  If you see late line swings and they cut against the narrative I have outlined above, that means the narrative likely will have changed so wager with that cautionary note as I will not be near a computer to update such changes until much later today if at all.