love your info thank you for all your time and effort RK
Thank you. I don't expect people to follow but maybe look at a game with a perspective that I have time and access to by charting every game and holding a stats spreadsheet. With 365 teams, there will be opportunities appear so I hope you can enjoy a little bet here and there and have fun...
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
1
Quote Originally Posted by HDROADKING1998:
love your info thank you for all your time and effort RK
Thank you. I don't expect people to follow but maybe look at a game with a perspective that I have time and access to by charting every game and holding a stats spreadsheet. With 365 teams, there will be opportunities appear so I hope you can enjoy a little bet here and there and have fun...
im just a small time retired entertainment gambler dont know anything about capping games but love reading the insight of guys on here such as yourself/rum and too many others to list thank you seems i have xtra income after retiring for this entertainment but my wife doesnt seem to understand RK
Guess what? I am 4 yrs retired now... I almost went the direction of a statistician but went into economics and sports performance combination while playing sports and then some pro tourneys in one sport for years post grad up till I was about 38 yrs old...
I love the time flexibility I have now to pick and choose what I do with my time and with having a variety of choices.
Truth is....its horse racing and sometimes stock market wins that fueled my 'cache of starter money' that I have build and have sustained/grown over the years so now I can branch out and do 4 sports a year with enough bankroll to transfer over winnings eventually to build it into year round challenging entertainment, so I hear you on the fun of the thrill of 'beating the man' who sets the lines rather than taking out money for being such a homer on a line.... but much respect for those that love betting their teams passionately.
Personally, I just love the challenge of trying to hit 60% or better on a season and keeping my head above water in the horse betting game (standardbreds only)
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Quote Originally Posted by HDROADKING1998:
im just a small time retired entertainment gambler dont know anything about capping games but love reading the insight of guys on here such as yourself/rum and too many others to list thank you seems i have xtra income after retiring for this entertainment but my wife doesnt seem to understand RK
Guess what? I am 4 yrs retired now... I almost went the direction of a statistician but went into economics and sports performance combination while playing sports and then some pro tourneys in one sport for years post grad up till I was about 38 yrs old...
I love the time flexibility I have now to pick and choose what I do with my time and with having a variety of choices.
Truth is....its horse racing and sometimes stock market wins that fueled my 'cache of starter money' that I have build and have sustained/grown over the years so now I can branch out and do 4 sports a year with enough bankroll to transfer over winnings eventually to build it into year round challenging entertainment, so I hear you on the fun of the thrill of 'beating the man' who sets the lines rather than taking out money for being such a homer on a line.... but much respect for those that love betting their teams passionately.
Personally, I just love the challenge of trying to hit 60% or better on a season and keeping my head above water in the horse betting game (standardbreds only)
I think we are seeing...the past week or so..... venue DOES NOT MATTER....in the early days. Every team in a conference feels they know their opponent and can scheme to beat them. At least, that is the proper mindset they should have now coming into a game so really its (a) game prep (b) strategy (c) mindset and finally (d+e) talent + system execution..... I know as a former ranked athlete, you can beat a top team or group by working on a+b+c, mindful of the components of your team and how to utilize them effectively in your plan
Lots of upsets are happening ....
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
I think we are seeing...the past week or so..... venue DOES NOT MATTER....in the early days. Every team in a conference feels they know their opponent and can scheme to beat them. At least, that is the proper mindset they should have now coming into a game so really its (a) game prep (b) strategy (c) mindset and finally (d+e) talent + system execution..... I know as a former ranked athlete, you can beat a top team or group by working on a+b+c, mindful of the components of your team and how to utilize them effectively in your plan
Whew! After a meager first half that USF under was a squeeker by the buzzer! But we came in at the end. Good call on Baylor's impotence of late too. They gave us that under as well. And Mizzou needed no help in covering in that one...
Between your guidance, my picking and choosing, a penchant for teasers and a full measure of required luck we are full speed ahead!
1
Whew! After a meager first half that USF under was a squeeker by the buzzer! But we came in at the end. Good call on Baylor's impotence of late too. They gave us that under as well. And Mizzou needed no help in covering in that one...
Between your guidance, my picking and choosing, a penchant for teasers and a full measure of required luck we are full speed ahead!
Just look and wrote down every matchup for tomorrow and gonna add their ranks now and spin my matchup trends....
With just looking at matchups, here are the lines I really like with knowing the teams:
Oregon -3 >> now the shoe is on the other foot for east coast - midwest teams to fly west and jetlag and Oregon is real tough at home ...great matchup ...fade East side first game usually if matchup is close
San Diego -4.5 >> I know their record does not look great but I recall them playing some meaty teams through the Non Conf schedule and they put up points.... Pepperdine, not so much ...SD likes to score at home!
New Mex St ML > I am gonna watch this line and see if it falls...after a disastrous road trip....but I know they are monsters on their home court hitting shots from everywhere and getting defensive stops
ULM/ULL > if I feel ULM will have trouble scoring, this one will be an UNDER or ULL all the way....they can stop any team defensively but have trouble scoring at times but lately have been playing well
Sam Houston > they can flat out play ball and Delaware sometimes have trouble scoring 55 pts.... so fickle so will dig into this one
Austin Peay > they are now positive Point Differential and have improved their rank by over 120 pts in a month.... sleeper team but FGCU likes to score but untidy defense
Drexel > terrible record but do they ever play tough ball at home....
William + Mary > this will be a dandy...Over or WM?
Liberty-Loutech > actually leaning the OVER here because I know LouTech like to score at home vs good teams
Sparty > have to dig into head to head....super impressive team Sparty is EXCEPT they will have to crank up their offense more if they are going to get to final 4 one of these years again.....they can but they revert to tight ball and sometimes that won't work against the taller - higher scoring teams like Florida and Duke are now designed to be
Hofstra > going to stay on this team despite their second super tough defensive team matchup ..... great stats but can they overcome very tight defenses??
There are about 5 -7 very well known low scoring tight defensive teams who use full clock but I can see Vegas is adjusting and setting lower and lower Totals..... like the Lou Tech game, I think some of these might go Over ....have to dig matchup history etc....
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
1
Just look and wrote down every matchup for tomorrow and gonna add their ranks now and spin my matchup trends....
With just looking at matchups, here are the lines I really like with knowing the teams:
Oregon -3 >> now the shoe is on the other foot for east coast - midwest teams to fly west and jetlag and Oregon is real tough at home ...great matchup ...fade East side first game usually if matchup is close
San Diego -4.5 >> I know their record does not look great but I recall them playing some meaty teams through the Non Conf schedule and they put up points.... Pepperdine, not so much ...SD likes to score at home!
New Mex St ML > I am gonna watch this line and see if it falls...after a disastrous road trip....but I know they are monsters on their home court hitting shots from everywhere and getting defensive stops
ULM/ULL > if I feel ULM will have trouble scoring, this one will be an UNDER or ULL all the way....they can stop any team defensively but have trouble scoring at times but lately have been playing well
Sam Houston > they can flat out play ball and Delaware sometimes have trouble scoring 55 pts.... so fickle so will dig into this one
Austin Peay > they are now positive Point Differential and have improved their rank by over 120 pts in a month.... sleeper team but FGCU likes to score but untidy defense
Drexel > terrible record but do they ever play tough ball at home....
William + Mary > this will be a dandy...Over or WM?
Liberty-Loutech > actually leaning the OVER here because I know LouTech like to score at home vs good teams
Sparty > have to dig into head to head....super impressive team Sparty is EXCEPT they will have to crank up their offense more if they are going to get to final 4 one of these years again.....they can but they revert to tight ball and sometimes that won't work against the taller - higher scoring teams like Florida and Duke are now designed to be
Hofstra > going to stay on this team despite their second super tough defensive team matchup ..... great stats but can they overcome very tight defenses??
There are about 5 -7 very well known low scoring tight defensive teams who use full clock but I can see Vegas is adjusting and setting lower and lower Totals..... like the Lou Tech game, I think some of these might go Over ....have to dig matchup history etc....
For the sake of time....I am going to post one play at a time that fits a model for me having cross correlated spreads and rank groups
Montana +4.5 x 1U
-they have dominated this series BUT this is one of Idaho's best teams in a while....that said...a check of last year's ranking shows this Montana team is better.....should be a close game but I like the fact this is a DOUBLE FADE of spread and rank combo and Montana with some nice offense-defense ... Idaho with nice FT and 3 pt shooting on home court
Hampton-Campbell Under 147 x HALF U
-Campbell looks like they adapt to their opponent and Hampton has a strong defense and don't get into too many shooting contests
- most of their matches are UNDER this total
William + Mary -3.5 x 1 U
-my matchup stats say they are better on both sides of the ball and my correlations say the matchup is good but be careful with spread .....matchup stats suggest I think its do-able along with a proven cover over this number vs two better teams than Monmouth on the road in beating Duquesne and Bowling Green
Looking into a couple more....later
I don't really love anything today...
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
1
For the sake of time....I am going to post one play at a time that fits a model for me having cross correlated spreads and rank groups
Montana +4.5 x 1U
-they have dominated this series BUT this is one of Idaho's best teams in a while....that said...a check of last year's ranking shows this Montana team is better.....should be a close game but I like the fact this is a DOUBLE FADE of spread and rank combo and Montana with some nice offense-defense ... Idaho with nice FT and 3 pt shooting on home court
Hampton-Campbell Under 147 x HALF U
-Campbell looks like they adapt to their opponent and Hampton has a strong defense and don't get into too many shooting contests
- most of their matches are UNDER this total
William + Mary -3.5 x 1 U
-my matchup stats say they are better on both sides of the ball and my correlations say the matchup is good but be careful with spread .....matchup stats suggest I think its do-able along with a proven cover over this number vs two better teams than Monmouth on the road in beating Duquesne and Bowling Green
Thanks L2T. A tepid response to today's card has me taking a breather and going over to the Fiesta Bowl side of things to maybe parlay some of my winnings into further success there. GO CANES!
Looking forward to Friday/weekend conference plays with you in NCAAB.
0
@Last2thirst
Thanks L2T. A tepid response to today's card has me taking a breather and going over to the Fiesta Bowl side of things to maybe parlay some of my winnings into further success there. GO CANES!
Looking forward to Friday/weekend conference plays with you in NCAAB.
BIG1O is teaching this and SEC has lost its way with it....I hope they get it back because it does not work against alpha dees in the Playoffs and Miami is an alpha D
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
2
Defense wins championships.....
BIG1O is teaching this and SEC has lost its way with it....I hope they get it back because it does not work against alpha dees in the Playoffs and Miami is an alpha D
I just looked at who Toledo has played and lost to....
Miami Ohio -1.5 x 2U
-I will lay off them if they loose and wait for them to return to a winning streak, until then, full steam ahead when they are on a roll and set up/play better than Toledo does
-one look at the defense of Toledo and you will see that the #1 FG and #2 3pt shooting team in NCAAB should not have their offense stalled....and Miami has a good defense
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
1
I just looked at who Toledo has played and lost to....
Miami Ohio -1.5 x 2U
-I will lay off them if they loose and wait for them to return to a winning streak, until then, full steam ahead when they are on a roll and set up/play better than Toledo does
-one look at the defense of Toledo and you will see that the #1 FG and #2 3pt shooting team in NCAAB should not have their offense stalled....and Miami has a good defense
-I fully expect USC to be better as they can play with mid pack good teams like Minny is.....who is on a roll here and embracing defense to spur that roll
- USC only got 50-ish points in both games in Michigan and I can see them raising their output to 60's-low 70's (maybe if they win) and Minny will want to keep the output low as well..... I can see one team score high 60's and the other around 71-74 final
-my only concern is, will FTs send it over??, hence the HALF U theory bet
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
USC-Gophers Under 145.5 x HALF U
-I fully expect USC to be better as they can play with mid pack good teams like Minny is.....who is on a roll here and embracing defense to spur that roll
- USC only got 50-ish points in both games in Michigan and I can see them raising their output to 60's-low 70's (maybe if they win) and Minny will want to keep the output low as well..... I can see one team score high 60's and the other around 71-74 final
-my only concern is, will FTs send it over??, hence the HALF U theory bet
I'll be working on Saturday games and horses the rest of the day..... Indiana- Oregon tonight should be a more open game than their last one but I am not sure if the total is UNDER threat ....I can see a 26-21 type of score or 23 - 20, 23 - 17
Ducks and Hoosiers have 2 of the best coaches in college going at each other, as well as QB's and defense speed reactions so I cannot see too many long plays more than 35yds connecting
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
1
I'll be working on Saturday games and horses the rest of the day..... Indiana- Oregon tonight should be a more open game than their last one but I am not sure if the total is UNDER threat ....I can see a 26-21 type of score or 23 - 20, 23 - 17
Ducks and Hoosiers have 2 of the best coaches in college going at each other, as well as QB's and defense speed reactions so I cannot see too many long plays more than 35yds connecting
To further add to the UNDER proposition for the Indiana - Ducks game.... Mercedes Benz stadium is NOT prone to very high scoring games for college football or NFL ..... if the teams have a good defense especially and if not, they rarely get over 55 pts
Ducks and Hoosiers are both Top 10 defenses
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
1
To further add to the UNDER proposition for the Indiana - Ducks game.... Mercedes Benz stadium is NOT prone to very high scoring games for college football or NFL ..... if the teams have a good defense especially and if not, they rarely get over 55 pts
To further add to the UNDER proposition for the Indiana - Ducks game.... Mercedes Benz stadium is NOT prone to very high scoring games for college football or NFL ..... if the teams have a good defense especially and if not, they rarely get over 55 pts Ducks and Hoosiers are both Top 10 defenses
Current indicators are calling for a slight edge to ORE as outright winner. SO, if nothing changes there before just prior to kickoff here's a play...
ORE +9.5/Under 54.5
1
Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst:
To further add to the UNDER proposition for the Indiana - Ducks game.... Mercedes Benz stadium is NOT prone to very high scoring games for college football or NFL ..... if the teams have a good defense especially and if not, they rarely get over 55 pts Ducks and Hoosiers are both Top 10 defenses
Current indicators are calling for a slight edge to ORE as outright winner. SO, if nothing changes there before just prior to kickoff here's a play...
Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst: To further add to the UNDER proposition for the Indiana - Ducks game.... Mercedes Benz stadium is NOT prone to very high scoring games for college football or NFL ..... if the teams have a good defense especially and if not, they rarely get over 55 pts Ducks and Hoosiers are both Top 10 defenses Current indicators are calling for a slight edge to ORE as outright winner. SO, if nothing changes there before just prior to kickoff here's a play... ORE +9.5/Under 54.5
That's a great bet given the talent on the Ducks and who is coaching them.... there will be no blowouts against the Ducks but if there is a team that can blow them out, it would be the Hoosiers and here is why....
Every one of the 4 bye (TOP FOUR) College Playoff teams lost in the two years this format has run EXCEPT for the Hoosiers and they completely dismantled their opponent who was primed to face them....
How prepared and supersonic are the athletes of Indiana with that one game under their belt??? I would now say that they should be top of their game and that is a scary proposition for any team including a well coached and talents Ducks team
Also, Indiana went into Oregon's backyard at THE ZOO where almost no one wins when the Ducks are a top 20 team and they completely dismantled them despite the Ducks neutering the Nittany Lions on the road themselves a couple/few weeks before....that is how powerful and focused/talented this Indiana team is and that is when I woke up to what some very astute BIG 10 posters were discussing in week 3-4 about Indiana being the top team or could knock Buckeyes off of their mantle
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
2
Quote Originally Posted by Brewmeister:
Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst: To further add to the UNDER proposition for the Indiana - Ducks game.... Mercedes Benz stadium is NOT prone to very high scoring games for college football or NFL ..... if the teams have a good defense especially and if not, they rarely get over 55 pts Ducks and Hoosiers are both Top 10 defenses Current indicators are calling for a slight edge to ORE as outright winner. SO, if nothing changes there before just prior to kickoff here's a play... ORE +9.5/Under 54.5
That's a great bet given the talent on the Ducks and who is coaching them.... there will be no blowouts against the Ducks but if there is a team that can blow them out, it would be the Hoosiers and here is why....
Every one of the 4 bye (TOP FOUR) College Playoff teams lost in the two years this format has run EXCEPT for the Hoosiers and they completely dismantled their opponent who was primed to face them....
How prepared and supersonic are the athletes of Indiana with that one game under their belt??? I would now say that they should be top of their game and that is a scary proposition for any team including a well coached and talents Ducks team
Also, Indiana went into Oregon's backyard at THE ZOO where almost no one wins when the Ducks are a top 20 team and they completely dismantled them despite the Ducks neutering the Nittany Lions on the road themselves a couple/few weeks before....that is how powerful and focused/talented this Indiana team is and that is when I woke up to what some very astute BIG 10 posters were discussing in week 3-4 about Indiana being the top team or could knock Buckeyes off of their mantle
@Last2thirst Great stuff L2T. I think you're right - ORE has an outside shot but if Mendezoa gets loose it could be lights out. We'll see. Looking forward to your weekend plays in this forum though. BOL as always.
Thanks.
Its not just about Mendoza...he is just 'one' piece ....they have so many pieces and they play together. Its not by chance they are undefeated and now facing a 1 loss team from their conference ....yes its a rematch, but the venue is neutral and a 10 pt win by Indiana in a foreign stadium to them mid season was followed up with similar play the rest of the way and to this point. We like underdog stories, but my money is no longer going to be chasing hopium when a situation like this arises ....great to talk about but I am at a point in my life where risking well matters
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
2
Quote Originally Posted by Brewmeister:
@Last2thirst Great stuff L2T. I think you're right - ORE has an outside shot but if Mendezoa gets loose it could be lights out. We'll see. Looking forward to your weekend plays in this forum though. BOL as always.
Thanks.
Its not just about Mendoza...he is just 'one' piece ....they have so many pieces and they play together. Its not by chance they are undefeated and now facing a 1 loss team from their conference ....yes its a rematch, but the venue is neutral and a 10 pt win by Indiana in a foreign stadium to them mid season was followed up with similar play the rest of the way and to this point. We like underdog stories, but my money is no longer going to be chasing hopium when a situation like this arises ....great to talk about but I am at a point in my life where risking well matters
Its a classic case of Vegas OR hedge bettors thinking a 15 - 0 team is DUE to lose.....that it would be a great spot to take the home team here but they did not go into the matchup whatsoever..... these two programs passed each other on the teeter totter last season with Miami OH breaking through winning by 12 and Toledo is weaker than last year, MIAMI stronger and on the up
We will know HOW GOOD when they play Kent St on the 20th ...I think in their building
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
1
While the Miami Ohio game is not over.....
Its a classic case of Vegas OR hedge bettors thinking a 15 - 0 team is DUE to lose.....that it would be a great spot to take the home team here but they did not go into the matchup whatsoever..... these two programs passed each other on the teeter totter last season with Miami OH breaking through winning by 12 and Toledo is weaker than last year, MIAMI stronger and on the up
We will know HOW GOOD when they play Kent St on the 20th ...I think in their building
Thursday: 1 - 2 - HALF U << I didn't like yesterday and used only a few things on some local parlays...those tickets got ripped up!
Friday:
Northern Kentucky +3.5 x HALF U
Miami Ohio -1.5 x 2U
USC-Gophers Under 145.5 x HALF U << this one might go OT ...if not, I have it wrapped up
What's not being shown are the numerous parlays tickets I cashed today finishing 3-4 days of cherrypicking some mixed sport combos....just needed Indiana win and Miami Ohio on a lot of them and mix and mashes using some the others tonight and what I used 2 days ago.... mostly with African Soccer Championships...I follow a lot of soccer and caught onto a couple teams who are monstrously good as they send a lot of players to the top teams and might surprise at World Cup > Morocco and Senegal....they both won
Big week for me!
I have two plays ready to go for tomorrow...one I might surprise with how much I am going to lay..... and its one of the last few games of the evening
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
1
Thursday: 1 - 2 - HALF U << I didn't like yesterday and used only a few things on some local parlays...those tickets got ripped up!
Friday:
Northern Kentucky +3.5 x HALF U
Miami Ohio -1.5 x 2U
USC-Gophers Under 145.5 x HALF U << this one might go OT ...if not, I have it wrapped up
What's not being shown are the numerous parlays tickets I cashed today finishing 3-4 days of cherrypicking some mixed sport combos....just needed Indiana win and Miami Ohio on a lot of them and mix and mashes using some the others tonight and what I used 2 days ago.... mostly with African Soccer Championships...I follow a lot of soccer and caught onto a couple teams who are monstrously good as they send a lot of players to the top teams and might surprise at World Cup > Morocco and Senegal....they both won
Big week for me!
I have two plays ready to go for tomorrow...one I might surprise with how much I am going to lay..... and its one of the last few games of the evening
Saturday - First Blood bets ....will cap all evening and into the morning to be ready on the whole card, but I must lay these lines before they climb !
Play #1 - Utah St 10 pm -1.5 x 5U ($500)
-I've had a good week, have some extra cash and I cannot believe this line
- its the end of the night so if I have a bad day, this could set me back in line....if I am having a middling day....like Saturday can be, and I always forget to press on something, then I can push this into a great day. I am willing to risk that but be careful here following a hot picker lately, it can turn on a dime and I know this and those that follow me see this
-better team, better shooters ....similar SOS ....weaker offensive and defensive stats on Boise who are strong on their home court but not lately....losers of 3 of 4 games
-Utah St with 6 wins in a row and facing a rival for the Conference championship...they'll be ready and confident with little doubt (unlike Boise) based on their consistent shooting and defense
Play #2 - have to play this also before line change Montana -1.5 x 1U
-EWU is 2-13 but have had a tough schedule
-Montana just beat a good Idaho team and are 9-7 on the season ...play well on both sides of the ball but that is not the case with EWU .....Montana has to have a bad shooting game to lose this in my opinion
Probably will have a noon -2 pm game or two added before I head to bed ....
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Saturday - First Blood bets ....will cap all evening and into the morning to be ready on the whole card, but I must lay these lines before they climb !
Play #1 - Utah St 10 pm -1.5 x 5U ($500)
-I've had a good week, have some extra cash and I cannot believe this line
- its the end of the night so if I have a bad day, this could set me back in line....if I am having a middling day....like Saturday can be, and I always forget to press on something, then I can push this into a great day. I am willing to risk that but be careful here following a hot picker lately, it can turn on a dime and I know this and those that follow me see this
-better team, better shooters ....similar SOS ....weaker offensive and defensive stats on Boise who are strong on their home court but not lately....losers of 3 of 4 games
-Utah St with 6 wins in a row and facing a rival for the Conference championship...they'll be ready and confident with little doubt (unlike Boise) based on their consistent shooting and defense
Play #2 - have to play this also before line change Montana -1.5 x 1U
-EWU is 2-13 but have had a tough schedule
-Montana just beat a good Idaho team and are 9-7 on the season ...play well on both sides of the ball but that is not the case with EWU .....Montana has to have a bad shooting game to lose this in my opinion
Probably will have a noon -2 pm game or two added before I head to bed ....
Last couple of days....favorites having a tough go ...but there are still good ones every day
Thursday fave record = 24 - 30 - 3 ATS
Friday record = 5 - 9 ATS
I ended Friday +3 U (3 - 0 ) and a pile of parlays worth over $1200 profit that were spread out over 4 days this week some of them while others were 2-3 day plays mixing sports .... Miami Ohio was on a lot of tickets and African soccer playoffs I had 2 teams split up to win on every ticket and they both came through
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Last couple of days....favorites having a tough go ...but there are still good ones every day
Thursday fave record = 24 - 30 - 3 ATS
Friday record = 5 - 9 ATS
I ended Friday +3 U (3 - 0 ) and a pile of parlays worth over $1200 profit that were spread out over 4 days this week some of them while others were 2-3 day plays mixing sports .... Miami Ohio was on a lot of tickets and African soccer playoffs I had 2 teams split up to win on every ticket and they both came through
-I think they should be favorite based on their strong offense and ability to buckle down and win a lot of games on defense .....Ohio has some shaky defensive stats and they will be lucky to pull away from Buffalo at any point with their offense.....not crazy good
-both rank correlation and spread are fades strongly against the favorite
I have a couple of more fades to consider and gonna line shop for them....and a couple of faves and same thing....lets see what comes up in the morning or around noon as I am only looking at 12 pm -230 pm games tonight besides my first 2 insta plays that I made
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Play #3 Buffalo +5 x 1U
-I think they should be favorite based on their strong offense and ability to buckle down and win a lot of games on defense .....Ohio has some shaky defensive stats and they will be lucky to pull away from Buffalo at any point with their offense.....not crazy good
-both rank correlation and spread are fades strongly against the favorite
I have a couple of more fades to consider and gonna line shop for them....and a couple of faves and same thing....lets see what comes up in the morning or around noon as I am only looking at 12 pm -230 pm games tonight besides my first 2 insta plays that I made
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...not over but going to be hard to let in a comeback by Ole Miss 
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