L2T Conference Betting Thread

Thank you. I don't expect people to follow but maybe look at a game with a perspective that I have time and access to by charting every game and holding a stats spreadsheet. With 365 teams, there will be opportunities appear so I hope you can enjoy a little bet here and there and have fun... 

im just a small time retired entertainment gambler

dont know anything about capping games but love reading the

insight of guys on here such as yourself/rum and too many

others to list

thank you

seems i have xtra income after retiring for this entertainment

but my wife doesnt seem to understand

RK

Guess what? I am 4 yrs retired now... I almost went the direction of a statistician but went into economics and sports performance combination while playing sports and then some pro tourneys in one sport for years post grad up till I was about 38 yrs old... 

 I love the time flexibility I have now to pick and choose what I do with my time and with having a variety of choices. 

Truth is....its horse racing and sometimes stock market wins that fueled my 'cache of starter money' that I have build and have sustained/grown over the years so now I can branch out and do 4 sports a year with enough bankroll to transfer over winnings eventually to build it into year round challenging entertainment, so I hear you on the fun of the thrill of 'beating the man' who sets the lines rather than taking out money for being such a homer on a line.... but much respect for those  that love betting their teams passionately. 

Personally, I just love the challenge of trying to hit 60% or better on a season and keeping my head above water in the horse betting game (standardbreds only)

I think we are seeing...the past week or so..... venue DOES NOT MATTER....in the early days. Every team in a conference feels they know their opponent and can scheme to beat them. At least, that is the proper mindset they should have now coming into a game so really its (a) game prep (b) strategy (c) mindset and finally (d+e) talent + system execution..... I know as a former ranked athlete, you can beat a top team or group by working on a+b+c, mindful of the components of your team and how to utilize them effectively in your plan

Lots of upsets are happening .... 

Whew! After a meager first half that USF under was a squeeker by the buzzer! But we came in at the end. Good call on Baylor's impotence of late too. They gave us that under as well. And Mizzou needed no help in covering in that one...

Between your guidance, my picking and choosing, a penchant for teasers and a full measure of required luck we are full speed ahead!

Tuesday recap: 3 - 3  +1U 

Wednesday Results:

USF - North Texas Under 146.5 x 2U  

Play #2 Wednesday - fits in Trend #3 > Missouri +13.5 x 1U @ Kentucky  ranked #24  

Play #3 - California +12.5 @ #36 Virginia x HALF U  * same trend #3 FADE    need a miracle...cannot make a shot in 2nd half

 Top Team Play - Iowa St -4.5 x 1U   and UNDER 155.5 x 2U  

Arkansas -4 x HALF U   ...not over but going to be hard to let in a comeback by Ole Miss 

There could have been more, but like in anything, doing too much never leads to any great result....

Just look and wrote down every matchup for tomorrow and gonna add their ranks now and spin my matchup trends....

With just looking at matchups, here are the lines I really like with knowing the teams:

Oregon -3 >> now the shoe is on the other foot for east coast - midwest teams to fly west and jetlag and Oregon is real tough at home ...great matchup ...fade East side first game usually if matchup is close

San Diego -4.5 >> I know their record does not look great but I recall them playing some meaty teams through the Non Conf schedule and they put up points.... Pepperdine, not so much ...SD likes to score at home!

New Mex St ML > I am gonna watch this line and see if it falls...after a disastrous road trip....but I know they are monsters on their home court hitting shots from everywhere and getting defensive stops

ULM/ULL > if I feel ULM will have trouble scoring, this one will be an UNDER or ULL all the way....they can stop any team defensively but have trouble scoring at times but lately have been playing well

Sam Houston > they can flat out play ball and Delaware sometimes have trouble scoring 55 pts.... so fickle so will dig into this one

Austin Peay > they are now positive Point Differential and have improved their rank by over 120 pts in a month.... sleeper team but FGCU likes to score but untidy defense

Drexel > terrible record but do they ever play tough ball at home.... 

William + Mary > this will be a dandy...Over or WM?

Liberty-Loutech > actually leaning the OVER here because I know LouTech like to score at home vs good teams

Sparty > have to dig into head to head....super impressive team Sparty is EXCEPT they will have to crank up their offense more if they are going to get to final 4 one of these years again.....they can but they revert to tight ball and sometimes that won't work against the taller - higher scoring teams like Florida and Duke are now designed to be 

Hofstra > going to stay on this team despite their second super tough defensive team matchup ..... great stats but can they overcome very tight defenses??

There are about 5 -7 very well known low scoring tight defensive teams who use full clock but I can see Vegas is adjusting and setting lower and lower Totals..... like the Lou Tech game, I think some of these might go Over ....have to dig matchup history etc....

For the sake of time....I am going to post one play at a time that fits a model for me having cross correlated spreads and rank groups

Montana +4.5 x 1U

-they have dominated this series BUT this is one of Idaho's best teams in a while....that said...a check of last year's ranking shows this Montana team is better.....should be a close game but I like the fact this is a DOUBLE FADE of spread and rank combo and Montana with some nice offense-defense ... Idaho with nice FT and 3 pt shooting on home court

Hampton-Campbell Under 147 x HALF U

-Campbell looks like they adapt to their opponent and Hampton has a strong defense and don't get into too many shooting contests 

- most of their matches are UNDER this total

William + Mary -3.5 x 1 U

-my matchup stats say they are better on both sides of the ball and my correlations say the matchup is good but be careful with spread .....matchup stats suggest I think its do-able  along with a proven cover over this number vs two better teams than Monmouth on the road in beating Duquesne and Bowling Green

Looking into a couple more....later 

I don't really love anything today...

@Last2thirst

Thanks L2T. A tepid response to today's card has me taking a breather and going over to the Fiesta Bowl side of things to maybe parlay some of my winnings into further success there. GO CANES!

Looking forward to Friday/weekend conference plays with you in NCAAB.

Defense wins championships.....

BIG1O is teaching this and SEC has lost its way with it....I hope they get it back because it does not work against alpha dees in the Playoffs and Miami is an alpha D

Friday, really only one game hits one of my trends well as a DOUBLE FADE and that is 

Northern Kentucky +3.5 x HALF U

-ranked higher and positive Point Differential vs Milwaukee with - 5 

-better offense and defense ....but Milwaukee with the tougher schedule 

-not in love with this play but its gotta good chance to be close 

I think USC @ Minny is interesting and would do ML ....will look into this ..... 2nd game from west coast...they should be adapted to time zone by now 

Love Miami Ohio....fun story and they are a much better team than Toledo in my opinion but Toledo is a good team and always strong at home

I just looked at who Toledo has played and lost to....

Miami Ohio -1.5 x 2U

-I will lay off them if they loose and wait for them to return to a winning streak, until then, full steam ahead when they are on a roll and set up/play better than Toledo does 

-one look at the defense of Toledo and you will see that the #1 FG and #2 3pt shooting team in NCAAB should not have their offense stalled....and Miami has a good defense