Second place in Group D is on the line on Thursday as Australia and Paraguay square off in Santa Clara and try to clinch a spot in the Round of 32.
Both teams enter with three points on the board, but my Australia vs. Paraguay predictions fade a La Albirroja squad missing suspended playmaker Miguel Almiron and back the gritty Aussies to have the last laugh here.
Check out my free World Cup picks for this June 25 showdown.
TOP PICK
Who will win Paraguay vs Australia: Australia (+240)
By this point, we know what to expect from an Australian team that prides itself on being tough to beat. The Aussies have won seven of their last 10 games and only have two defeats from their past 15 outings.
So it’s a slight surprise to see Tony Popovic’s men as underdogs on Thursday against a Paraguay team that was blown away by the USMNT in its opening fixture and will be deprived of Miguel Almiron’s creative spark at Levi’s Stadium.
Paraguay deserve credit for shutting down Turkey on Friday while playing the whole second half with 10 men, but I don’t see enough goal threat to worry a well-drilled Australia defense that can easily shift into a back five.
At the other end of the pitch, Nestory Irankunda gives the Aussies a lightning weapon on the counterattack, and their towering center-backs will be a factor at set pieces.
Australia are ranked 14 spots higher than Paraguay in the latest FIFA rankings.
Playable to +180.
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Paraguay vs Australia Over/Under pick: Over 1.5 (-154)
I’m surprised to get this O/U prop at this price. Four of Australia’s past five games have served up 2+ goals, and there’s a clear incentive for both teams to avoid the uncertainty of finishing third in Group D.
Though a draw would theoretically position both teams to qualify, that would be a perilous spot for Paraguay with an underwhelming -2 goal difference.
Instead, we should see a scenario where the two coaches are chasing a win.
Almiron’s suspension means La Albirroja will be without their leading scorer, and the attacking burden will fall on the shoulders of Julio Enciso and Isidro Pitta. That duo is unproven, but this Over doesn’t exactly require a goalfest, and Paraguay have scored in six straight contests.
Look out for first-half scoring, in particular. The South Americans allowed three goals in the opening 45 minutes against the USMNT, and their winner to sink Turkey came after just two minutes. Meanwhile, both goals in Australia’s 2-0 loss to the Americans found the net in the first period.
Paraguay vs Australia projected lineup
Paraguay (4-4-2): Gill; Caceres, G Gomez, Alderete, Alonso; Velazquez, Cubas, D Gomez, Galarza; Pitta, Enciso.
Australia (5-4-1): Beach; Italiano, Circati, Souttar, Burgess, Bos; Volpato, O'Neill, Okon-Engstler, Irankunda; Toure.
Paraguay vs Australia injuries
Paraguay: Miguel Almiron (Suspended), Diego Gomez (Probable).
Australia: Mathew Leckie (Questionable).
Paraguay vs Australia weather
It’s set to be a mild, sunny night at Levi’s Stadium, with temperatures dipping into the 60s by kickoff.
Paraguay vs Australia odds
| Paraguay | Australia | |
|---|---|---|
| +190 | Moneyline | +240 |
| +114 | Draw | +114 |
| Over 1.5 (-154) | Total | Under 1.5 (+125) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Paraguay vs Australia
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California |
| Date | Thursday, June 25, 2026 |
| Time | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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