TOURNAMENT: 73-53-1 (BIG PLAY: 26-17-1)
Been HORRIBLE the last few days, not even sure how. I seem to be on the wrong end of every upset and Morocco showed how being overconfident can cost you, even though it didn't cost them as much as it cost me/us! I will limit plays today, after all I wound't play every NFL game.
I am close to flat now on the tournament and the record is updated so you can see the losses are occurring on Big Plays which is hitting me hard as those are some that I find little way to lose. I do NOT use a "system" (I'm not sure anyone does after all) but I analyze every game. We are only two weeks in so I would tell everyone to tread lightly or just assess the plays before making them on your own.
I'm going to list a few plays now that span the ENTIRE day. I do want to see lineups now that it's the third game. I got really bamboozled backing weak lineups with Morocco and South Korea. The Haitians couldn't have been a bigger thorn in the side and I should have known better with the South Koreans.
UNDER 1.5 FH (CURACAO/IVORY COAST): Make no mistake, I think the Ivory Coast can (and should) win this game but this is also the first time they are favored to win. Curacao have conceded 11 of their last 15 goals after half-time and six of Ivory Coast’s last seven goals at the World Cup came after half-time. Clearly things could effectively go differently but there is a lot of pressure in this game as either teams has a chance to advance when there was no way imaginable that they would before the tournament.
NETHERLANDS OVER 2.5 TT (-155)...BIG PLAY!!!: Not going to have many big plays but this is one of them. Tunisia have given up 4 goals in back to back World Cup games marking a record for ineptness. Now they face the Netherlands who happily for the wager have not yet won their group. They can score at will but they do happen to concede strangely to teams they should pummel. There is no question who the outright winner will be and maybe Tunisia doesn't give up 4, but they will give up 3. Also might be adding the FH over.
YES BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE (JAPAN/SWEDEN) -135...BIG PLAY!!!: PLEASE. The Japanese have progressed to the knockouts every chance they seemingly have gotten and Sweden is far better with Isak playing (he was hurt for most of their qualifying). Both teams netted against the Dutch and neither team have as good a defense as the Netherlands, though that's not saying much from what I wrote above. I took this yesterday at -145 so happy it's come down a bit. Lineups won't matter as both teams will put their strongest squads on the field.
I LOVE the USA game tonight but gonna wait to see who they are starting and the same can be said for the Germany game. I've stopped worrying so much about lineups but in the final games there can easily be a lack of cohesion and chemistry from the players that are switched out. I'm not going to add many more plays but I will be on the USA game I see zero way that Turkey goes this entire tournament without scoring and the USA could very well change their entire back line in a game that will matter for Turkey but not for the U.S. As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...
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