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    All Forums | College Basketball

    L2T Conference Betting Thread

    «First Previous 456 ... 353637 Next Last»
    Last2thirst
    Robards
    Brewmeister
    IAdecimal5
    HDROADKING1998
    Participants:
    Search
    Views: 18052
    Posts: 911
    «First Previous 456 ... 353637 Next Last»
     
    Last2thirst
    Last2thirst
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2026 - 4:55 PM ET #76

    Eastern Michigan > good value ML +100 x HALF U

    - I expect a fight from Ball St, but EMU has far more weapons at their disposal

     

    Cuse-GTECH Under 147.5 x HALF U ...been hoping for more but its coming down 

     

    UCLA +3.5 x 1U and HALF U ML +140

    -I think they are better than Wisky anyway and reading that he read the riot act for last game and has lit a fire under their ass getting ready for this one....love Cronin as a coach...so motivational and meticulous in details

     

     

     

     

    Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
    Reply

    Eastern Michigan > good value ML +100 x HALF U

    - I expect a fight from Ball St, but EMU has far more weapons at their disposal

     

    Cuse-GTECH Under 147.5 x HALF U ...been hoping for more but its coming down 

     

    UCLA +3.5 x 1U and HALF U ML +140

    -I think they are better than Wisky anyway and reading that he read the riot act for last game and has lit a fire under their ass getting ready for this one....love Cronin as a coach...so motivational and meticulous in details

     

     

     

     

     
    Robards
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2026 - 5:07 PM ET #77

    @Last2thirst

     Good stuff.ty

    Reply

    @Last2thirst

     Good stuff.ty

     
    Brewmeister
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2026 - 5:23 PM ET #78

    @Last2thirst

     

    Many thanks for the interesting and in-depth write-ups. I am looking hard at the DUK play and considering a DUK +4 under 165.5 tease. Regardless, BOL and I will be on board going forward without objection.

    an_cannon 

     

      

    Reply

    @Last2thirst

     

    Many thanks for the interesting and in-depth write-ups. I am looking hard at the DUK play and considering a DUK +4 under 165.5 tease. Regardless, BOL and I will be on board going forward without objection.

    an_cannon 

     

      

     
    IAdecimal5
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2026 - 5:35 PM ET #79

    L2T.......peace_5

    Reply

    L2T.......peace_5

     
    Last2thirst
    Last2thirst
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2026 - 6:19 PM ET #80

    Hey guys, thanks. You might have caught me at the right time I hope because of being slapped around a little....I started Conference Play hot and have really petered out so back to looking at Matchups and just considering my data trends when the matchup and it line up TOGETHER ..

     

    Gl fellas 

    Brewmeister peace_5

    Robards peace_5

    IA (old faithful - love ya man!) peace_5

    Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
    Reply

    Hey guys, thanks. You might have caught me at the right time I hope because of being slapped around a little....I started Conference Play hot and have really petered out so back to looking at Matchups and just considering my data trends when the matchup and it line up TOGETHER ..

     

    Gl fellas 

    Brewmeister peace_5

    Robards peace_5

    IA (old faithful - love ya man!) peace_5

     
    Last2thirst
    Last2thirst
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2026 - 7:49 PM ET #81

    Wow ...Louisville hits every 3 pt shot almost 

    Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
    Reply

    Wow ...Louisville hits every 3 pt shot almost 

     
    Last2thirst
    Last2thirst
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2026 - 8:38 PM ET #82

    Better movement by Duke in the 2nd half...on defense especially and using the lane now with cutters to slash through and get to the hoop

    Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
    Reply

    Better movement by Duke in the 2nd half...on defense especially and using the lane now with cutters to slash through and get to the hoop

     
    Last2thirst
    Last2thirst
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2026 - 9:01 PM ET #83

    Ah man...really unlucky with Mia Oh play....WMU got 3 offensive rebounds with 30 seconds left to ice a shot to bring it to down by 13.....I needed to hold the 15 pt advantage....crazy how it comes to last bucket a lot

    Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
    Reply

    Ah man...really unlucky with Mia Oh play....WMU got 3 offensive rebounds with 30 seconds left to ice a shot to bring it to down by 13.....I needed to hold the 15 pt advantage....crazy how it comes to last bucket a lot

     
    Brewmeister
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2026 - 9:23 PM ET #84

    @Last2thirst

    My plays based on your capping:

    DUK pk                   moneybag     You were right. The line jumping the fence was a head fake.

    MIA -14                 an_burningbag     Bad break. We had it and then didn't.

    DUK +4/MIA -10     moneybag

    DUK +4 u 165.5      moneybag 

    Stellar work sir!

    an_cheers

     

    Reply

    @Last2thirst

    My plays based on your capping:

    DUK pk                   moneybag     You were right. The line jumping the fence was a head fake.

    MIA -14                 an_burningbag     Bad break. We had it and then didn't.

    DUK +4/MIA -10     moneybag

    DUK +4 u 165.5      moneybag 

    Stellar work sir!

    an_cheers

     

     
    Last2thirst
    Last2thirst
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2026 - 9:49 PM ET #85

    Tuesday results:

    Duke -1 x 2.5 U  moneybagmoneybagwin

    Under 162.5 x 1U  moneybag

    Play #2 - Miami Ohio -13.5 x 1U  an_shake

    Eastern Michigan > good value ML +100 x HALF U moneybag

    Cuse-GTECH Under 147.5 x HALF U    an_shake

     UCLA +3.5 x 1U and HALF U ML +140  .... they are fighting back like Duke did but I don't know...

    Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
    Reply

    Tuesday results:

    Duke -1 x 2.5 U  moneybagmoneybagwin

    Under 162.5 x 1U  moneybag

    Play #2 - Miami Ohio -13.5 x 1U  an_shake

    Eastern Michigan > good value ML +100 x HALF U moneybag

    Cuse-GTECH Under 147.5 x HALF U    an_shake

     UCLA +3.5 x 1U and HALF U ML +140  .... they are fighting back like Duke did but I don't know...

     
    Last2thirst
    Last2thirst
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2026 - 9:50 PM ET #86

    Quote Originally Posted by Brewmeister:

    @Last2thirst My plays based on your capping: DUK pk                        You were right. The line jumping the fence was a head fake. MIA -14                      Bad break. We had it and then didn't. DUK +4/MIA -10      DUK +4 u 165.5        Stellar work sir!

     

    Nice work on the TEASER!! an_cheers

     

    I thought about doing some soon but like my UNDER or OVER parlays when I see about 4-5 really good ones....will do that and a TEASER day one of these times

    Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Brewmeister:

    @Last2thirst My plays based on your capping: DUK pk                        You were right. The line jumping the fence was a head fake. MIA -14                      Bad break. We had it and then didn't. DUK +4/MIA -10      DUK +4 u 165.5        Stellar work sir!

     

    Nice work on the TEASER!! an_cheers

     

    I thought about doing some soon but like my UNDER or OVER parlays when I see about 4-5 really good ones....will do that and a TEASER day one of these times

     
    Brewmeister
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2026 - 10:08 PM ET #87

    @Last2thirst

    Yeah teasers and parlays are sucker bets to the purebred among us but I find high entertainment value there. Knowing that in the long run the odds are stackd against anyway I anticipate loss and play within means but love it when it works. I guess I state the obvious.

    Looking forward to the Thursday NCAAF plays. Another forum, I know but the indicators are interesting...   

    Reply

    @Last2thirst

    Yeah teasers and parlays are sucker bets to the purebred among us but I find high entertainment value there. Knowing that in the long run the odds are stackd against anyway I anticipate loss and play within means but love it when it works. I guess I state the obvious.

    Looking forward to the Thursday NCAAF plays. Another forum, I know but the indicators are interesting...   

     
    Last2thirst
    Last2thirst
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2026 - 10:33 PM ET #88

    Quote Originally Posted by Brewmeister:

    @Last2thirst Yeah teasers and parlays are sucker bets to the purebred among us but I find high entertainment value there. Knowing that in the long run the odds are stackd against anyway I anticipate loss and play within means but love it when it works. I guess I state the obvious. Looking forward to the Thursday NCAAF plays. Another forum, I know but the indicators are interesting...

     

    I just noticed your picture.... 'I see nothing! nothing! Colonel Hogan!!" haha .....amazing show and one of my all time faves for sure

     

    Will post some great fade numbers/trends in Conference Play...just trying to get more data inputted.... I realize now, I have to change my mindset with Conference play due to coach familiarity, more tv exposure now and micro-focus within a conference.... a hybrid of trend + matchup works best 

     

    Let's keep it goingan_cheers

    Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Brewmeister:

    @Last2thirst Yeah teasers and parlays are sucker bets to the purebred among us but I find high entertainment value there. Knowing that in the long run the odds are stackd against anyway I anticipate loss and play within means but love it when it works. I guess I state the obvious. Looking forward to the Thursday NCAAF plays. Another forum, I know but the indicators are interesting...

     

    I just noticed your picture.... 'I see nothing! nothing! Colonel Hogan!!" haha .....amazing show and one of my all time faves for sure

     

    Will post some great fade numbers/trends in Conference Play...just trying to get more data inputted.... I realize now, I have to change my mindset with Conference play due to coach familiarity, more tv exposure now and micro-focus within a conference.... a hybrid of trend + matchup works best 

     

    Let's keep it goingan_cheers

     
    Brewmeister
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2026 - 11:33 PM ET #89

    @Last2thirst

    an_horse  

    Reply

    @Last2thirst

    an_horse  

     
    Last2thirst
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    Posted: Jan. 7, 2026 - 12:20 AM ET #90

    Conference Play is a marathon, not a sprint and tricky....

     

    Case in Point:

    Monday results (19 games)

    Favorites 6 - 13  ATS  << 8 out of 13 dogs won outright  (65% ML gold spots!)

     

    Tuesday results (29 games - 27 results complete)

    Favorites 15 - 12 ATS  << 4 out 12 dogs won outright  (33% ML gold spots)

     

    I want some of that ML cash so......

     

    Those that know me on other threads in other sports, know that I like to do DOUBLE UP bets (3 legs) but since its a little more risky but quite lucrative, I am going to start with a lower amount and do QUAD legs for Double Ups

    1st leg selection costs = Q ($25)

    if lose, 2nd leg = HALF U ($50)

    if lose that, 3rd leg selection = 1U ($100)

    if lose that, 4th and final leg = 2U ($200) << lose this, I wait to start all over again if I like a night 

     

    I won't do a DOUBLE UP every night but you can bet I will probably be frisky for the first while ....an_roll_laugh

     

    Inputting results and then looking into tomorrow's matchups:

    What's hot in my Conference Spreadsheet Trends?

    #1 Trend over 2 seasons of Track Results

    = FADE favorites ATS on any spread if they are ranked #151 - 190 when playing a team ranked #231 - 280th

    = only 26 - 54 - 3 success rate for favorite

     

    #2 Trend:

    = FADE favorites who are ranked #151 - 190th when they are -0.5 to -2.5 line 

    = only 34 - 58 - 1 success rate!

    **** this means these teams are live bait for my DOUBLE UP of ML DOGS ****

     

    #3 Trend:

    = FADE the favorite if ranked #21 - 40th when they have a spread of -11 to -15.5 

    = only a 9 - 26 ATS success rate!

     

    There are some positive spreads and rank combos but not as much as there are great fades so it is imperative to do matchup checking during play time.....it makes a difference!

    Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
    Reply

    Conference Play is a marathon, not a sprint and tricky....

     

    Case in Point:

    Monday results (19 games)

    Favorites 6 - 13  ATS  << 8 out of 13 dogs won outright  (65% ML gold spots!)

     

    Tuesday results (29 games - 27 results complete)

    Favorites 15 - 12 ATS  << 4 out 12 dogs won outright  (33% ML gold spots)

     

    I want some of that ML cash so......

     

    Those that know me on other threads in other sports, know that I like to do DOUBLE UP bets (3 legs) but since its a little more risky but quite lucrative, I am going to start with a lower amount and do QUAD legs for Double Ups

    1st leg selection costs = Q ($25)

    if lose, 2nd leg = HALF U ($50)

    if lose that, 3rd leg selection = 1U ($100)

    if lose that, 4th and final leg = 2U ($200) << lose this, I wait to start all over again if I like a night 

     

    I won't do a DOUBLE UP every night but you can bet I will probably be frisky for the first while ....an_roll_laugh

     

    Inputting results and then looking into tomorrow's matchups:

    What's hot in my Conference Spreadsheet Trends?

    #1 Trend over 2 seasons of Track Results

    = FADE favorites ATS on any spread if they are ranked #151 - 190 when playing a team ranked #231 - 280th

    = only 26 - 54 - 3 success rate for favorite

     

    #2 Trend:

    = FADE favorites who are ranked #151 - 190th when they are -0.5 to -2.5 line 

    = only 34 - 58 - 1 success rate!

    **** this means these teams are live bait for my DOUBLE UP of ML DOGS ****

     

    #3 Trend:

    = FADE the favorite if ranked #21 - 40th when they have a spread of -11 to -15.5 

    = only a 9 - 26 ATS success rate!

     

    There are some positive spreads and rank combos but not as much as there are great fades so it is imperative to do matchup checking during play time.....it makes a difference!

     
    Last2thirst
    Last2thirst
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    Posted: Jan. 7, 2026 - 12:25 AM ET #91

    I was using Jeff Sagarin's rating system for about 10 yrs ...Massey for a few and then I uncovered this one and like it because it provides updates real quick on reshuffling their rank after a result....usually before the early morning of the next day

    https://www.dratings.com/sports/ncaa-college-basketball-ratings/#scroll-time

     

    I also like TEAM RANKINGS for providing comparative stats...and a chance to look back at season results and versus whom in a list form ...extremely handy for updating my spreadsheet every 1-2 weeks...tomorrow I update all the main rankings for shooting and defense ratings if I can get to it  

    https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other

    Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
    Reply

    I was using Jeff Sagarin's rating system for about 10 yrs ...Massey for a few and then I uncovered this one and like it because it provides updates real quick on reshuffling their rank after a result....usually before the early morning of the next day

    https://www.dratings.com/sports/ncaa-college-basketball-ratings/#scroll-time

     

    I also like TEAM RANKINGS for providing comparative stats...and a chance to look back at season results and versus whom in a list form ...extremely handy for updating my spreadsheet every 1-2 weeks...tomorrow I update all the main rankings for shooting and defense ratings if I can get to it  

    https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other

     
    Last2thirst
    Last2thirst
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    Posted: Jan. 7, 2026 - 1:05 AM ET #92

    Got my first play Wednesday....as soon as I saw the number!

     

    USF - North Texas Under 146.5 x 2U

    -USF can manufacture buckets but they are not great shooters perse statistically....and this UNT team is very hard to score on or manufacture easy-quick buckets!

    -I have seen at least 2 stronger shooting teams come in vs them and go UNDER this number

    - this 'should' be the next one

    -Utah St and VCU could not go Over this number vs UNT and they have better offenses/shooters than USF 

     

    UNT defense ranks from Covers:

    Season Stats Rank
    POINTS/G   63.4  #9
    FG % 40.7    #61
    3PT % 28.2  #17
    FT % 69.3     #81
    Rebounds/G 29.1   #64

    Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
    Reply

    Got my first play Wednesday....as soon as I saw the number!

     

    USF - North Texas Under 146.5 x 2U

    -USF can manufacture buckets but they are not great shooters perse statistically....and this UNT team is very hard to score on or manufacture easy-quick buckets!

    -I have seen at least 2 stronger shooting teams come in vs them and go UNDER this number

    - this 'should' be the next one

    -Utah St and VCU could not go Over this number vs UNT and they have better offenses/shooters than USF 

     

    UNT defense ranks from Covers:

    Season Stats Rank
    POINTS/G   63.4  #9
    FG % 40.7    #61
    3PT % 28.2  #17
    FT % 69.3     #81
    Rebounds/G 29.1   #64

     
    Last2thirst
    Last2thirst
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    Posted: Jan. 7, 2026 - 1:46 AM ET #93

    Play #2 Wednesday - fits in Trend #3 > Missouri +13.5 x 1U @ Kentucky  ranked #24

     

     

    Play #3 - California +12.5 @ #36 Virginia x HALF U  * same trend #3 FADE

     

     

    an_razz North Texas total already down 1 pt....

     

    I will definitely have more plays tomorrow but milked the ripe lines hopefully, already. I have at least a five situations to consider for my ML DOUBLE UP plays.... will look into it tomorrow, no need to rush now

    Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
    Reply

    Play #2 Wednesday - fits in Trend #3 > Missouri +13.5 x 1U @ Kentucky  ranked #24

     

     

    Play #3 - California +12.5 @ #36 Virginia x HALF U  * same trend #3 FADE

     

     

    an_razz North Texas total already down 1 pt....

     

    I will definitely have more plays tomorrow but milked the ripe lines hopefully, already. I have at least a five situations to consider for my ML DOUBLE UP plays.... will look into it tomorrow, no need to rush now

     
    Last2thirst
    Last2thirst
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    Posts: 13727
    Posted: Jan. 7, 2026 - 11:50 AM ET #94

    Top Team Play - Iowa St -4.5 x 1U and UNDER 155.5 x 2U

     

    -I am doubting that this total can go over based on Iowa St defense + Baylor's game flow vs other good teams + IWST's results vs other top teams 

    -Iowa St shot high % from 3pt vs Purdue and WVU ... decent (33%) vs Iowa .....both Iowa and Purdue are Top 50 defenses against 3 pt shooting teams....and WVU has a strong overall defensive system 

    -Baylor ranks 190th+ vs the 3 pt shot

    - Iowa St holds good shooting teams to low scores mostly

    - do I see a similar situation in the Duke - Louisville game where the home crowd and team energy is highest in the first half for the underdog? Yes, 100%...but Iowa St has the DNA in their team to try and control their opponent right from the outset regardless of playing location 

    -Duke has the 64th best 3 pt defense and this came into play ...in the 2ND HALF where they tightened up..... 

    -Baylor does not produce high number totals and have a much weaker SOS coming into this game ...but their offensive numbers are pretty strong ....this number seems quite high ...can Iowa St score 85  on Baylor? Yes but will they want to or have to ...can Baylor score over 72-75 on Iowa St? I doubt it 

    -in the last 10 games with these teams, Baylor - Iowa St has NOT produced a final total OVER this number

     

    I'm taking my shot more on the Total vs the side I like because that line smells a little ...I think it should be -8.5 to -10.5

     

    Iowa St #12 SOS (based on an update of numbers 1 week ago)

    Baylor #36 SOS 

    Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
    Reply

    Top Team Play - Iowa St -4.5 x 1U and UNDER 155.5 x 2U

     

    -I am doubting that this total can go over based on Iowa St defense + Baylor's game flow vs other good teams + IWST's results vs other top teams 

    -Iowa St shot high % from 3pt vs Purdue and WVU ... decent (33%) vs Iowa .....both Iowa and Purdue are Top 50 defenses against 3 pt shooting teams....and WVU has a strong overall defensive system 

    -Baylor ranks 190th+ vs the 3 pt shot

    - Iowa St holds good shooting teams to low scores mostly

    - do I see a similar situation in the Duke - Louisville game where the home crowd and team energy is highest in the first half for the underdog? Yes, 100%...but Iowa St has the DNA in their team to try and control their opponent right from the outset regardless of playing location 

    -Duke has the 64th best 3 pt defense and this came into play ...in the 2ND HALF where they tightened up..... 

    -Baylor does not produce high number totals and have a much weaker SOS coming into this game ...but their offensive numbers are pretty strong ....this number seems quite high ...can Iowa St score 85  on Baylor? Yes but will they want to or have to ...can Baylor score over 72-75 on Iowa St? I doubt it 

    -in the last 10 games with these teams, Baylor - Iowa St has NOT produced a final total OVER this number

     

    I'm taking my shot more on the Total vs the side I like because that line smells a little ...I think it should be -8.5 to -10.5

     

    Iowa St #12 SOS (based on an update of numbers 1 week ago)

    Baylor #36 SOS 

     
    Brewmeister
    Brewmeister
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    Posts: 934
    Posted: Jan. 7, 2026 - 12:05 PM ET #95

    @Last2thirst

    Loving this. Your system makes wagering more of a science much like the public indicators weight system in an NCAAF that I am following and in that respect it is much more enjoyable. Thanks for the effort that goes into your posts L2T... And as usual:

    Whiskey! Fresh horses! We ride!

    an_horse  

    Reply

    @Last2thirst

    Loving this. Your system makes wagering more of a science much like the public indicators weight system in an NCAAF that I am following and in that respect it is much more enjoyable. Thanks for the effort that goes into your posts L2T... And as usual:

    Whiskey! Fresh horses! We ride!

    an_horse  

     
    Last2thirst
    Last2thirst
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    Posts: 13727
    Posted: Jan. 7, 2026 - 12:14 PM ET #96

    Quote Originally Posted by Brewmeister:

    @Last2thirst Loving this. Your system makes wagering more of a science much like the public indicators weight system in an NCAAF that I am following and in that respect it is much more enjoyable. Thanks for the effort that goes into your posts L2T... And as usual: Whiskey! Fresh horses! We ride!

     

    Haha...two of my weaknesses but I gave up one of those and will never the other....soon to be an owner  in my retirement plan with my wife by the time I am 63-65 yrs old..... I grew up around people in the standardbred industry

    Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Brewmeister:

    @Last2thirst Loving this. Your system makes wagering more of a science much like the public indicators weight system in an NCAAF that I am following and in that respect it is much more enjoyable. Thanks for the effort that goes into your posts L2T... And as usual: Whiskey! Fresh horses! We ride!

     

    Haha...two of my weaknesses but I gave up one of those and will never the other....soon to be an owner  in my retirement plan with my wife by the time I am 63-65 yrs old..... I grew up around people in the standardbred industry

     
    Last2thirst
    Last2thirst
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    Posted: Jan. 7, 2026 - 1:10 PM ET #97

    Probably won't play too many more today as I am up to about 7U allocated today....but here is a list of some strong correlations in my spreadsheet with numbers with the spread:

     

    Top 20 vs teams 66th - 90th = 28 - 19 ATS

    -UCONN #5 @ Providence in this scenario (-10.5) < 37 - 38 success rate with that number...it it climbs to -11 or higher, success rate goes UP considerably

    -Arkansas #17 @ Mississippi in this scenario also (-4)  < 22 - 17 - 1 success rate with this number range 

    ***just checked numbers and Ole Miss will have difficulty stopping 3 pt shots from Arky if number hold form and Arky have good defensive numbers

    Arkansas -4 x HALF U

     

    Team ranked #91 - 120 plays team ranked #231 - 280 = 27 - 16 ATS

    -Murray St #95 @ Evansville #244 (-8.5) << 46 - 45 success rate

    -Davidson #113 @ Loyola Chic #235 (-1.5) << 31 - 31 success rate but the spread is low enough to see this one get over the finish line unless you feel LoyChic is starting to turnaround and their home court will pay for them now

     

    GL today 

     

    Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
    Reply

    Probably won't play too many more today as I am up to about 7U allocated today....but here is a list of some strong correlations in my spreadsheet with numbers with the spread:

     

    Top 20 vs teams 66th - 90th = 28 - 19 ATS

    -UCONN #5 @ Providence in this scenario (-10.5) < 37 - 38 success rate with that number...it it climbs to -11 or higher, success rate goes UP considerably

    -Arkansas #17 @ Mississippi in this scenario also (-4)  < 22 - 17 - 1 success rate with this number range 

    ***just checked numbers and Ole Miss will have difficulty stopping 3 pt shots from Arky if number hold form and Arky have good defensive numbers

    Arkansas -4 x HALF U

     

    Team ranked #91 - 120 plays team ranked #231 - 280 = 27 - 16 ATS

    -Murray St #95 @ Evansville #244 (-8.5) << 46 - 45 success rate

    -Davidson #113 @ Loyola Chic #235 (-1.5) << 31 - 31 success rate but the spread is low enough to see this one get over the finish line unless you feel LoyChic is starting to turnaround and their home court will pay for them now

     

    GL today 

     

     
    Last2thirst
    Last2thirst
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    Posted: Jan. 7, 2026 - 1:47 PM ET #98

    I also think this Arizona number at -18 is probably 3-5 pts too low 

    -KSST is an offensive team with issues on defense vs strong teams

    -Arizona obliterated Auburn on their home court with a similar type of offense/defense setup and statistics like KSST and Arizona can play smothering defense when they are motivated....just give up more from behind the arc at times but their rebounding is superb

    SOS #7 at home vs an SOS #42 on the road ..... where they don't thrive 

    Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
    Reply

    I also think this Arizona number at -18 is probably 3-5 pts too low 

    -KSST is an offensive team with issues on defense vs strong teams

    -Arizona obliterated Auburn on their home court with a similar type of offense/defense setup and statistics like KSST and Arizona can play smothering defense when they are motivated....just give up more from behind the arc at times but their rebounding is superb

    SOS #7 at home vs an SOS #42 on the road ..... where they don't thrive 

     
    Last2thirst
    Last2thirst
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    Posted: Jan. 7, 2026 - 3:59 PM ET #99

    Some oddities I am finding but over  committed to plays....

     

    Presbyterian score around 63 per  game ....Radford around 80-82 .... not sure why the total is 148 .... Radford does not have to lean to hard on Presby and Presby if they score 5 over their avg means they should work at getting Radford below theirs...

     

    STL - VCU ...STL is turbocharged offense usually at home...VCU knows how to control teams like this .... 171.5 total seems high ...that implies both will be above 85 and I don't know about that 

     

    call me skeptical of middling teams like ETSU trying to cover -17 in conference games 

     

    Now...do two top 20 teams who have offensive pedigree and want to knock their opponent off of their mantle cache....have the ability to score over 180 pts??? YOU BET with Bama and Vandy ....last year's Vandy team combined with Bama to score over 190 ...Vandy far superior  this year and that only gets Bama's coaches juices flowing to crank up the shot rate if you notice when Bama plays a strong team !!

    Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
    Reply

    Some oddities I am finding but over  committed to plays....

     

    Presbyterian score around 63 per  game ....Radford around 80-82 .... not sure why the total is 148 .... Radford does not have to lean to hard on Presby and Presby if they score 5 over their avg means they should work at getting Radford below theirs...

     

    STL - VCU ...STL is turbocharged offense usually at home...VCU knows how to control teams like this .... 171.5 total seems high ...that implies both will be above 85 and I don't know about that 

     

    call me skeptical of middling teams like ETSU trying to cover -17 in conference games 

     

    Now...do two top 20 teams who have offensive pedigree and want to knock their opponent off of their mantle cache....have the ability to score over 180 pts??? YOU BET with Bama and Vandy ....last year's Vandy team combined with Bama to score over 190 ...Vandy far superior  this year and that only gets Bama's coaches juices flowing to crank up the shot rate if you notice when Bama plays a strong team !!

     
     
    HDROADKING1998
    HDROADKING1998
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    Posted: Jan. 7, 2026 - 5:55 PM ET #100

    love your info thank you for all your time and effort

    RK

    Reply

    love your info thank you for all your time and effort

    RK

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