With the Netherlands assured of a place in the knockout phase and Tunisia already eliminated, there is a danger of this game turning into a non-event.
Yet the Dutch have more to play for, and my Netherlands vs. Tunisia predictions are backing the clear favorites to run up a big winning margin.
Read on for my World Cup picks for Thursday, June 25, with kickoff scheduled for 7 pm ET in Kansas City.
TOP PICK
Who will win Netherlands vs Tunisia: Netherlands -2.5 (+105)
Netherlands moved to the top of Group F thanks to their 5-1 win over Sweden in their last match. Momentum can play a pivotal role at a major tournament, so manager Ronald Koeman will ask his players to keep their foot on the gas.
The size of the Dutch winning margin may ultimately dictate their route through the rest of the World Cup bracket. Netherlands and Japan are tied on 4pts each — the latter face Sweden (3pts) in the group’s other final game, which kicks off at the same time as this fixture — so goal difference or goals scored may decide who finishes first.
If you are looking to win big, you could not possibly ask for more compliant opponents than Tunisia. The North Africans have posted two disastrous performances from two outings, losing 5-1 to Sweden and 4-0 to Japan. They are out of the competition no matter what happens here. Their morale is rock-bottom and, as nothing is at stake, there is no reason to expect they will be properly motivated.
The Netherlands are an understandably short -733 to earn three points. Back them -2.5 on the handicap, and play that up to -110.
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Netherlands vs Tunisia Over/Under pick: Over 3.5 Goals (+114)
With seven goals from two games, the Netherlands look good enough to clear the Over 3.5 line on its own. Their average xG may be moderate — 1.70 per game — but they have three players in fine scoring form, and others itching to contribute in the final third as well.
Wingers Cody Gakpo and Crysencio Summerville, and central striker Brian Brobbey each have two goals. The in-form trio will be licking their lips at the prospect of facing the tournament’s most porous defense, while Netherlands’ all-time top scorer Memphis Depay — on a journey back from injury — will get minutes, too, either from the start or off the bench.
Tunisia made serious individual and collective defensive mistakes in their opening two games. The fact that they have nothing to play for is a supplementary concern here, as they may lack the will and desire to hold the Dutch at bay.
Nineteen of the World Cup’s opening 45 (42 per cent) games have featured four or more goals. Make Over 3.5 your selection, and play it at anything up to +100.
Netherlands vs Tunisia projected lineup
Netherlands (4-3-3): Verbruggen; Dumfries, van Hecke, van Dijk, van de Ven; de Jong, Gravenberch, Reijnders; Summerville, Brobbey, Gakpo
Tunisia (4-3-3): Dahmen; Valery, Bronn, Talbi, Abdi; Skhiri, Khedira, Mejbri; Gharbi, Mastouri, Saad
Netherlands vs Tunisia injuries
Netherlands: Depay (Questionable).
Tunisia: No injuries to report.
Netherlands vs Tunisia weather
A warm evening is forecast, with temperatures in the high 70s at kickoff, and only a small chance of rain during the game.
Netherlands vs Tunisia odds
| Netherlands | Tunisia | |
|---|---|---|
| -733 | Moneyline | +2400 |
| +1011 | Draw | +1011 |
| Over 3.5 (+122) | Total | Under 2.5 (-127) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Netherlands vs Tunisia
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri |
| Date | Thursday, June 25, 2026 |
| Time | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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