L2T Conference Betting Thread

Merry X-mas everyone!! 

I had a choice to make this evening. Play poker or start my Conference Thread early and since I completed wrapping and cleaning early, and got my analytics chart primed a couple of hours ago.... I decided to post in here while waiting for a relative to call in a different time zone late in the evening. 

If you saw my Non Conf Thread, I used $80 for 1x Unit plays but in this thread I am upping it to $100.

What is my record? I stopped keeping track but know that my $4000 in the account is now $4890 in the NCAAB account and I am ready for Conference Play. Also, in that prior thread, I used a ranking change system by tracking each game last year and this year to Dec 23rd recording ATS wins-loss record for the favorite within a ranking group set. I have my spreadsheet from last year from Dec 27 - March Tourney Conference Play results and will just add into that accumulating two seasons of data and indicating what is working within one rank subsets vs another and which ATS numbers in some instances are Fades or Presses.....

But what I am really excited about is the fact my spreadsheet is now correlated to all 365 teams and how they rank within what I feel are the most important stat categories to determine how to bet compare:

(1) SOS - Strength of Schedule

(2) PD - Point Differential between Off game avg and DEF pts allowed avg expressed +/-

(3) PPGA - Point Per Game Against - defense result on how many points they allow per game (ranking)

(4) 3 Pt shooting effectiveness (ranking)

(5) FT - Free Throw shooting effectiveness (ranking)

In the beginning, I will refer to my Quad averages on 4 of those categories to gauge their QUAD SCORE and after that, I will look at:

- PD comparison

- Past history with last 2 yrs Totals giving me the most indication to consider

- coaching style sometimes

I plan to add to my Quad Score for each team a HEXI Score when I factor in 3 pt defense ranking and 3pt shooting ranking which I know makes a difference in tourney play and chances for teams to lean toward if I feel a spread is too high and might allow for a high backdoor cover probability. Most importantly, my HEXI Score will have me ready for bracket challenges for money that I go into and when I press a lot more on selective lines come tourney time.

I should have the HEXI-Score for each team done by the first week of February, perhaps sooner. For now, ALL TEAMS are updated to a QUAD number that I use for a comparison, and all numbers are updated in my spreadsheet every 2 weeks approximately going forward.

I bet for me and a small group of friends who come into my thread to cheer us on in MLB,NCAAF and now NCAAB. I make money but I definitely suck in streaks so be careful since its gambling ....but you will always know I don't HUNCH perse, but use analytics more since I will have a reason always that I can blame the team for not performing to ITS STANDARD and not my guessing ability

Welcome 

I could give 2 sheets about TOP 25 rankings put out by coaches, AP Polls or whatever...... as you will see now, my ranking system is for betting and comparative analysis.

Who is over rated in the Top 25? All the teams are excellent listed BUT I think you need to look at the teams that they ignore for value...... 

UCLA or NC State  come to mind !!

Well, in my QUAD score system for Non Conference Play , SOS carries double the weight.... PPGA is next but I kept it equal to 3PT and FT ranks for now.....as we get into February, I will lower SOS since there are good conferences and bad conferences and elevate PPGA and add 3 PT defense which is critical come tourney time and maybe add OFF rebounding to make it a HEXI SCORE ....OFF rebounding is under rated late in the season in my opinion as it can buy more clock and deflate an opponent/loosen up their defense into making more mistakes or panicking 

Best Quad Scores (updated to Dec 23 completed games): 3PT / 2x SOS/ FT / PPGA are the rank numbers beside each team

1. UCLA    #10 (3PT)/2x #31 (SOS) / #76 (FT)/ #53 defense  = 40.2 avg.

2. NC State  #19/2x #24/ #35 /#110 defense  = 42.4

3. Iowa  #17/2x #27 / #144/ #1 defense  = 44.4

4. Michigan  #33/2x #3 /#169 /#27 defense  = 47

5. Indiana  #82 /2x  #35 /#55 / #29 defense =  47.2

6. Purdue  #13 /2x  #11 / #82 / #120 defense  = 47.4

7. BYU  #68 /2x #20 /#97 /#33 defense  =  47.6

8. Illinois  #160 /2x #6 /#17 / #60 defense  = 49.8

9. Iowa St  #6 /2x #12 /#224 /#7 defense  =  52.2

10. Michigan St  #103 /2x #19 /#114 /#11 defense = 53.2

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11. Arizona  = 56.8

12. Kansas = 56.8

13. St. Mary's = 57.6

14. Houston  = 59.2

15. San Diego St = 61

16. Arkansas = 61.6

17. Vanderbilt  = 62.6

18. Louisville = 64.2

19. Gonzaga = 67.4  << #1 SOS !

20. Boise = 69.4 

21. Duke

22. California

23. Creighton

24. Hofstra

25. Seton Hall

26. Tulsa

27. Notre Dame 

28. Yale

29. Wisconsin = 80.0 

30. St. Johns / UCONN tie 

*** remember, SOS is worth double in my QUAD Score rating (2 shooting ratings + defense points are the other) so you would think the Top 25 teams on the list with strong schedules would appear but not the case

North Carolina = 104

Nebraska = 84.2

Alabama = 92.2

TTech  = 110

Tennessee = 82.4

Virginia = 84.6

Florida = 123

Georgia = 102

USC = 89.8

Lowest scoring teams:  PD = Point Differential

Rider          55.6  (-20.2 PD)

ULL            57.5  (-10.2 PD)

New Haven 57.6  (-12.5 PD)

Canisius     58.0  (-11.7 PD)

Delaware St 58.1  (-16.7 PD)

Maine        58.4   (-12.2 PD)

Maryl.Shore 58.5 (-16.0 PD)

Jackson St  60.8  (-28.0 PD)

NC Central 61.1  (-22.5 PD)

Bryant       61.5  (-10.9 PD)

Coppin St 61.9  (-26.2 PD)

TexAMCC  62.0 (-12.6 PD)

Low Scoring with good defense/low PD: - tap these sometimes for UNDERS 

Brown   > 66.8 OFF /68.2 DEF

Canisius >  58.0/69.7

Jacksonville St  > 65.5/69.4

Louisiana  > 57.5/69.7

Lou Tech  > 64.3 / 62.6

Maine  >  58.4/ 70.2

N.Iowa >  69.2 / 60.0

N.Texas > 66.5/ 65.2

Presbyterian > 62.7/69.7

Towson  > 65.7/ 67.3

UTArlington > 66.4/67.0

UTEP   > 63.4 /71.7

UCIrvine > 68.0 / 68.4 

 CRUSHERS! - widest Point Differential (PD)

Michigan  29.3 - #3 toughest schedule / crushed Gonzaga by 50+ on neutral court

Georgia  27.8 - #63 SOS 

Iowa St   27.4  - #10 SOS 

Gonzaga  24.8 - 2nd toughest SOS 

Duke 24.6  - despite 5th toughest schedule

Louisville 23.4 - #19 SOS 

St. Louis  23.4 - #97 SOS 

Arizona 22.6 -  #4 SOS 

Vanderbilt  21.9 - #23 SOS 

These numbers come from NON - CONFERENCE play..... I have stopped my NON-CONF thread so if the matchup starting on Dec 28 is NON-CONF....will use (NC) designation and reference rank matchup stats perhaps from that spreadsheet, otherwise, going to report what worked well in my last season CONFERENCE PLAY ATS rank combos to exploit or Fade

 Under rated vs  Over rated based on SOS and shooting stats/defense in Non Conference Play:

Under Rated: 

Belmont - interesting mix of great 3pt shooting + good defense

Bowling Green - strong defense and consistency/good shooting stats 

Buffalo - good on both sides of the ball/better shooting but much weaker SOS than BWGr

Columbia - good all around and strong Quad number better than teams with similar SOS like Florida St, Dayton, Cincy

Drake - very consistent numbers in all categories around 50th rank including defense and good SOS number

George Mason - consistent numbers and their defense can overwhelm a team at times...they are streaky when they play when games are tight and have profited from this team early on

Grand Canyon - only fly in their ointment is 3pt shooting but this team is improving in that category

HOFSTRA -super impressive numbers in every category despite a medium tough Non Conf schedule (SOS = 97th)

Miami Ohio - strong numbers at both ends but only 300+ SOS....how good are they? MAC looks quite competitive

Richmond - nice shooting and defense numbers but 212 SOS ...still, they can beat a lot of teams a lot of different ways

St Louis - improve their defense a little more and they may have a juggernaut type of team...very impressive offensive stats and a reasonably difficult Non Conf schedule (#96 SOS)

Texas AM - right coach for the offense and style of play for their group of players and if they button down defense, they could make some noise .... improving numbers for 3 weeks in a row

Tulsa - fun team to watch with the ball and their defense is coming around ...they could surprise with their scoring ability 

Utah St - nice little team who just extinguished one of the best shooting teams in the country to win impressively vs Colorado St

UCSanta B. - really nice stats and lets see how could they are with stiff competition

Yale - dangerous team to play as they do everything well

I'm looking at last year's Conference Play spreadsheet which I will add to including this season from Sunday Dec 28 - March 2-5th approximately.....

Here is what stands out:

SPREADS:

- ONLY 14 games had a spread of -21 or higher for the favorite

- favorites were 7- 7 and 2 spreads were at -31 or higher and went 0 - 2

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-Teams ranked 151 - 190th were 6 - 0 ATS with a spread of -16 to -20.5

- strangely, teams ranked 121 - 150th and 66th - 90th did poorly with this same line  (2 - 7 and 2 - 9 ATS)

- teams ranked 41 - 65th did well with this spread (7 - 2 ATS)

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For the favorite team spreads of -11 to -15.5:

-teams ranked #1-#20 did well @ 30 - 20 - 1 ATS and teams ranked #66 - 90 or #191-230 were both 22 - 14 ATS 

-teams ranked #21 - 40th did very poorly with the same spread  (9 - 23 ATS !)

- teams #41 - 65 were poor also at 10 - 17 - 1 ATS

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For the favorite team spreads of -6 to -10.5

- teams ranked #1 - 20th and #331th or worse did the best with this number ( 38 - 31 ATS  and  8 - 4 - 1 ATS )

- teams ranked #191 - 230th were poorest at 35 - 43 ATS with this number, otherwise, Vegas was pretty tight

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Finally.....

For the favorite team spreads of -3 to -5.5

- teams ranked #21 - 90th were all similar and hitting 79 - 53 - 4 ATS  and  teams #191 - 230 were 50 - 42 - 2 ATS

- teams ranked #151 - 190th were worst with this line @ 28 - 58 - 3 ATS and teams #121 - 150th were 33 - 43 - 1 ATS

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spreads -0.5 to -2.5 

-only teams #191 - 230th did really well @ 41 - 28 - 3 ATS 

- you want to avoid or be cautious of teams ranked #151 - 190  (31 - 47 ATS)  and  #41 - 65 (13 - 19 ATS)

All the best and will throw out some suggestions for only Conference Play lines in this thread unless I state otherwise its a NC (non-conference) matchup and there are some on Sunday

@Last2thirst

 Last2Always enjoy your breakdowns. Looking forward to keeping up with your thread. best of luck through conference season brotha.

Hey Jose, thanks man .....things are going to be different than the NON-CONF action....a lot tighter and I use a different spreadsheet ....starting to breakdown three games already on Sunday!

3 Conference Matchups I see on Sunday:

Liberty -4.5 @ FIU

-I expect an UNDER here with Liberty dictating pace, especially when you see them and NC State playing to a total UNDER 140 pts this season.... FIU is a little loosey goosey, but Liberty is not ...they have a good defense but terrible FT shooting 

PLAY #1 > UNDER 151.5 x 1U

-spread and rank group correlation are negative ATS for both so I am passing on side here

Wash St -5.5 @ Portland

-this year, presently their rankings are similar and this should be an open game ....PASS on total ...lean to Dog but no play for me

Santa Clara -6.5 @ Beavers

-negative ATS here for these rank groups and poor line result also...lean home dog for sure since Beavers play well here most games....both have played a common opponent in N.Texas this year and the total didn't go over 135 in either matchup...so how come this TOTAL is 154?? I am a little suspicious.... Santa Clara is not a great shooting team but know how to score ....Beavers tend to play to their opponents style 

Play #2 - UNDER 154 x HALF U

Pacific -3.5 @ San Diego 

-again, negative correlations for the favorite here ...don't see an edge with total either

St Marys -8.5 @ Loy Marymount 

-positive correlation with spread vs their ranking for St. Mary's (38 - 31 ATS for that number)

- two very good defenses and one strong FT team vs a very weak FT team in LM (#355th)....St Mary's hits the 3pt for a high % so I can see them using clock and frustrating LM ....but if LM keeps close, this could turn into a defensive struggle

TOTAL is too high given what the scores were last year and their style of play > Play #3 UNDER 138.5 x HALF U

-if line drops, I would have no issue siding with St Mary's and think they could cover

Gonzaga -28.5 @ Pepperdine 

- just not enough data to make a decision....last year Gonzaga could not cover a -20.5 road fave line @ Pepperdine

LEAN Pepperdine +28.5

San Fran -1 @ Seattle

-home team with better rank slightly, road team with 2x harder schedule and stats on both sides are similar but SF with a somewhat stronger defense.... TOTAL seems about right . PASS

3 Plays booked to start thread....all TOTALS....just don't see edges on sides yet and since I have time to post thoughts on each game, I will but this will not be regular. I will just post my plays as I see EDGES ...

Let's start well 

@Last2thirst

 bol this weekend

I am determined to be fast on opening lines, especially good totals on most days...... during Conference Play and the way I have set up my play spreadsheet with overall rank, defense pts against rank, 3 pt/FT rank and SOS rank....as well as point differential on offense and defense.....I am hoping to really pay off this year (last year was good but I want a great year ...fingers crossed)

Liberty line down to 147.5! (-4 shave from my number)

Santa Clara down to 151.5  (-2.5 shave)

St Mary's - steady

Looks like I am going to start Conference Play 1 - 2 

I am going to tally the OV/Unders for a while for all Conference games to see if the trend is very boisterous scoring rather than tight games....  so far 2 - 2 OVER and likely going to finish up 2 - 3 after St Mary's game?

31 Conference Games tomorrow ....and a whack of rollover games for the top teams in Non Conference action.....starting to go through games now

0 - 0 ATS Conf Play

0 - 3 ATS Totals (-2 U) << I am starting to keep track for Dec -January how totals are vs results 

Conference Play Totals so far = 3 - 3  ...I just happened to pick the 3 games that went OVER 

Great info. Keep up the great work. 

Play #1 - Marist +3.5 x HALF U

- almost +8 pts PD vs Quinn with only +0.7 PD

-Marist with the #9 best PPG against

- correlations last year point to a good fade play on rank correlation and spread for the favorite at this number

-Marist scores the same avg points per game and I can see them hanging around, if not taking the lead and forcing the hosts into numerous errors with their defense

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Bet365 has Towson -1 as fave vs William Mary > taking the home team with a +3.6 PD vs Towson with a negative 1.6 pts PD and their SOS schedules are almost exact.....better offense with WM / better dee with Towson BUT ....WM can buckle down on defense when they need to .....overall ranks are almost exact too

-all data for favorite is poor according to rank correlation and spread for favorite

WM +1 x HALF U

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Oakland +2 x 1U

-two very powerful stats..... when a team ranked 172 as favorite plays a team ranked 148th, they are 8 - 20 ATS ....also, the favorite ranked #172 with a spread of -0.5 to -2.5 is only 31 - 47 ATS with that spread according to my spreadsheet

-Oakland with much better shooting stats and a much much tougher SOS at 58th toughest.....I am sold on them

FADE THE FAVE in this one ....

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Manhattan -2.5 @ Rider x 1U

-Rider is 2nd worst team and Manhattan can score close to 75 pts per game 

-spread and rank group correlation are both positive....not overthinking this

Thanks.... will always deliver the best situation analytics as much as possible.  

GL this season

Last2thirst ... 

Plan to inspect some more Conference games tomorrow...but looking at my spreadsheet, I see a whole bunch of fade lines with the rank groups that are facing each other..... completely different from Non Conference Play dynamics

Total Play:

UTEP @ Lou Tech UNDER 130.5 x 2U

- their past 9 matchups have only gone OVER this total 1x with a total set at 140.5 last year and it went UNDER that number but higher than 130.5

-Lou Tech is a grinder team and UTEP does not score much but plays good defense too....here  are their Non Conference lines of PD

 UTEP (#206) 63.4 OFF (-8.4) 71.8 DEF   #291 -3PT #210 -SOS #342 - FT #88  << DEFENSE PPGA

Lou Tech (#235) 64.3 OFF (+1.7) 62.6 DEF   #365 -3PT #334 -SOS #325 - FT #3  << DEFENSE PPGA

I would take Lou Tech -3.5 also, but what gives me pause is the SOS difference!

L2T......

I remember last year..... expect the unexpected....except for the very best teams most nights but then they are just fighting a line to win with style

What you see in NON - CONF does not always translate to CONFERENCE PLAY.

Some interesting results so far tonight

2-2 ATS  (Even)

0-1 Totals (-2U)

Its gonna be a grinder for a while I believe.... be patient 

Tuesday - 26 Conference Games:

Positive Rank Correlations I am interested in (according to my spreadsheet):

- ETSU @ Citadel (163 rank vs 357 is 37 - 17 ATS/ spread number is negative however)

- EMU (h) vs UMASS (224 rank vs 154 UMass is 15 - 10 ATS/ spread is very positive result at this number = 41 - 28 )

- Colorado St (h) vs Nevada (84 rank vs 74 Nevada is 9 - 7 ATS / spread is positive at 24 - 16 with this number)

- Creighton (h) vs Butler (44 rank vs 50 Butler is 9 - 5 - 1 ATS / spread is positive at 28 - 19 with this number)

- Stanford (h) vs Notre D (66 rank vs 75 ND is 9 - 7 ATS / spread is positive at 28 - 19 with this number 

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Best Fades:

Play #1 - Temple +1 x 1U

-wrong team is favored in my opinion and what my spreadsheet says

- Temple with over +3 PD / Charlotte with -1.5 pts 

- Temple stronger SOS up to this point and better shooting stats but Charlotte close

- When 180 Charlotte plays 144 rank, they are 8 - 20 - 1 ATS ....and the spread at -1 for favorite is only 31 - 47 

Mulling these other FADES....

WMU @ Toledo (266 rank WMU faces 164 Toledo -11) > fave is 20 - 48 ATS when these ranks correlate

- also, the spread is only 23 - 31 success rate at -11 to -15.5

Fresno (h) vs Utah St (when #37 Utah St faces a 165 rank Fresno, they are only 4 - 8 ATS)

- spread of -14.5 for a #37 rank is only 9 - 23 success rate in conference play

N.Illinois (h) vs Buffalo (when #153 - Buffalo faces a #291 the ATS for the favorite is only 28 - 40 )

-spread is Even success rate at -6.5

Pacific @ Loyola Marymount (when #130 plays #142 Pacific, the ATS record for #130 is 10 - 15 ATS)

-spread at -5.5 is only 33 - 43 success rate 

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If I didn't consider analytics, I would be betting Seton Hall -2.5 as they are playing GREAT basketball right now and Marquette has faded to #118 rank this year .....also Boise -5 is a very well put together team but NMexico has some moxie too

-Miami is stomping on some teams...line is a real good number but rank correlation is only 14 - 25 ATS 

-Also, really like both Louisville and California....Vegas giving more respect than you would think so I am torn

Play #2 Seton Hall -1.5 x 2U

- just way too much defensive power and transition for a Marquette team who will be in this game, but I cannot help but think Seton Hall will be able to score easily on the lesser Marquette defense when they need to and get stops on their end

-my analytics says fade this rank correlation but I cannot ignore the Point Differential and style of play difference in a Big East matchup

Seton Hall (#34) 76.2 (+14.1) 62.1 DEF #169 - 3pt #65 -SOS #88 -FT  #6 - PPGA

Marquette (#118) 76.9 (-0.4) 77.3 DEF #283 - 3pt  #56 -SOS #181 - FT #217 - PPGA

15+ points on defense for Seton H and almost the same offensive output!

L2T.......