Merry X-mas everyone!! ![]()
I had a choice to make this evening. Play poker or start my Conference Thread early and since I completed wrapping and cleaning early, and got my analytics chart primed a couple of hours ago.... I decided to post in here while waiting for a relative to call in a different time zone late in the evening.
If you saw my Non Conf Thread, I used $80 for 1x Unit plays but in this thread I am upping it to $100.
What is my record? I stopped keeping track but know that my $4000 in the account is now $4890 in the NCAAB account and I am ready for Conference Play. Also, in that prior thread, I used a ranking change system by tracking each game last year and this year to Dec 23rd recording ATS wins-loss record for the favorite within a ranking group set. I have my spreadsheet from last year from Dec 27 - March Tourney Conference Play results and will just add into that accumulating two seasons of data and indicating what is working within one rank subsets vs another and which ATS numbers in some instances are Fades or Presses.....
But what I am really excited about is the fact my spreadsheet is now correlated to all 365 teams and how they rank within what I feel are the most important stat categories to determine how to bet compare:
(1) SOS - Strength of Schedule
(2) PD - Point Differential between Off game avg and DEF pts allowed avg expressed +/-
(3) PPGA - Point Per Game Against - defense result on how many points they allow per game (ranking)
(4) 3 Pt shooting effectiveness (ranking)
(5) FT - Free Throw shooting effectiveness (ranking)
In the beginning, I will refer to my Quad averages on 4 of those categories to gauge their QUAD SCORE and after that, I will look at:
- PD comparison
- Past history with last 2 yrs Totals giving me the most indication to consider
- coaching style sometimes
I plan to add to my Quad Score for each team a HEXI Score when I factor in 3 pt defense ranking and 3pt shooting ranking which I know makes a difference in tourney play and chances for teams to lean toward if I feel a spread is too high and might allow for a high backdoor cover probability. Most importantly, my HEXI Score will have me ready for bracket challenges for money that I go into and when I press a lot more on selective lines come tourney time.
I should have the HEXI-Score for each team done by the first week of February, perhaps sooner. For now, ALL TEAMS are updated to a QUAD number that I use for a comparison, and all numbers are updated in my spreadsheet every 2 weeks approximately going forward.
I bet for me and a small group of friends who come into my thread to cheer us on in MLB,NCAAF and now NCAAB. I make money but I definitely suck in streaks so be careful since its gambling ....but you will always know I don't HUNCH perse, but use analytics more since I will have a reason always that I can blame the team for not performing to ITS STANDARD and not my guessing ability
Welcome ![]()







