WORLD CUP TODAY PLAYS (6/24)

TOURNAMENT:  67-42-1 (BIG PLAY: 23-12-1)

Well, no worse day than yesterday.  Not only did I lose a GRIP of cash, but I put up a doughnut which is really hard to do lol.  Ironically seems every time a troll rolls in and starts to create havoc, that happens.  BUT, it has NOTHING to do with him or anyone else.  I truly believed Panama would score (they almost did or should have) and that the game would play open.  I got HAMMERED on both of those.  I also shyed away from taking the England under after the Portugal under was disastrous.  Turns out that Portugal game was the only one that didn't go under.  So just a really really bad day on my end and I apologize for that.

As if that wasn't enough...I actually didn't NOT post the Colombia game b/c I was mad or embarrassed.  In fact, I went to my new house inspection and that somehow took over an hour which went right into the start of the game.  I couldn't bring myself to being pulled away to gamble so I just said I would let that game pass.  Of course, being a gambler I checked in during the match and thought of taking a live play.  But I said to myself, today has been so bad maybe you should just lay off the game as much as you love Colombia.  So I wrapped up with dinner and I was walking out of the restaurant, I looked up at the tv to catch the ONLY 2 minutes of the game that I would see.  And, as you can imagine, like a nice swift kick to my nuts, all I saw was Colombia score that goal.  So yeah, really bad day not to mention the market downturn yesterday cost me tens of thousands. 

The good news is, today is a new day.  If you want to tail, great, let's make money.  If you don't want to, great, just sit on the sidelines and stay mum.  No reason to spew negativity or make false accusations.  I don't go back and read threads, I only move forward.  And that's what I intend to do today.

Lots of games, 3 different start times, I have a few plays I am going to come back and post in a couple of minutes.  I want to just get these up and going and then revisit closer to game time bc I dont' want to repeat what happened with the last game of the night, the one I would have recovered money but didn't.  Hopefully you guys tailed some others on here and cashed.  Again, apologies about the lack of focus and winners yesterday, we will right the ship.

Let’s bounce back together 

First game...

Both Bosnia and Qatar strangely enter this game as a long shot to be second in the group but more realistically a chance to proceed to the next round as the 3rd place team.  And, both teams head into this game on a fascinating winless run, with Bosnia having won none of their last six matches inside 90 minutes (D6, L1) and experiencing one win from eight competitive games inside 90 minutes (D5, L2).  That is really really not good.

People might point to Qatar as being the best possible opponent they could face to stop that skid, especially given Qatar are missing two defenders due to red cards.  But the missing defenders (and missing players on the field) were the prime reason they got thumped to the degree they did in their last game against Canada.  Do not forget, Canada had not won a World Cup game EVER, was playing on home soil, and were elevated by the crowd.  Once the Qatari men were sent off, the one sided affair really took flight.  

I think the thing that really gets me confident in this team is that they played Switzerland MUCH tougher in their first game, albeit they did have a full lineup to take to the field.  But there is something about the final games in the opening rounds at World Cups that changes how a game might otherwise flow given the stakes.  True, Qatar haven't won in their last eight internationals (D3, L5) scoring only 3 goals during that time.  But they are playing another team in Bosnia that has been just as bad and will have a lot more pressure squarely on them.

The odds are incredibly high for Bosnia signaling that the public doesn't think that Qatar can actually win this game.  But if you take a more calculated look at the spread, Qatar is getting 1.5 goals and are almost flat!  That shows me that oddsmakers are pricing in a low scoring game potentially with a one goal difference being more likely than an all out Qatar win or tie.  I happen to disagree, I think Qatar might be able to pull off the shock but I'll take the much safer play:

QATAR (+1.5) -115

I know I am most likely going to be in the minority and if you want don't tail it until you see me back on solid ground.  But I'm going to play this because I do believe it's the first step in what should be a highly profitable day again.

Here we go....slow and steady! LET'S GO! 

Canada vs. Switzerland...

I said it at the beginning of the tournament and I'll say it again now, I think Switzerland can be a sneaky selection to progress rather far in this tournament.  They will know this and wining against Canada will be a game changer as they will own the group and play a 3rd place team in the knockout rounds.  As I said, they will be very well aware of this.

Canada is playing at home and probably feeling pretty good about progressing and even winning their group after the 6-0 thumping of Qatar put them in a position where a win or tie would get them the winners of the group.  But I'm afraid other than the home crowd advantage, that is about the only place they have an advantage.  

Switzerland lost just two of their last 18 group stage games at major tournaments (W8, D8), and that's pretty darn good given how many years that spans.  Combine that with Canada having won only ONE of their WC games EVER, and you can see how quickly the scale imbalances.  But Canada are now unbeaten in ten matches (W4, D6) and they know a tie will be good enough to get them through.

Both of these teams can score and I am pretty certain they both will.  In fact, seven of Switzerlands past 8 games saw both teams score and I dont' think today will be any different. The Canadians are down a player in their midfield in Kone and that will hurt them with possession.  Neither team is going to be in any urgency to score until one or the other does.  I could see a FH draw but Canada has been good in Vancouver, it's just really hard to go against them playing there.

YES BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE (CANADA/SWITZERLAND) -130...BIG PLAY!!!

SWITZERLAND TIE OR NO BET (-145)...BIG PLAY!!!

Clearly I am more than expecting a tie but given how good the Swiss are in the group stages, seeing a loss here just seems a longer shot than I can convince myself otherwise of.  Could I see Canada winning....no.  Will it be tough...yes.  But both of these teams know they can get out of the group with a tie and Canada knows doing so also ensures they are group winners.  I just think losing Kone in midfield where the Swiss are strong will end up being the difference.  As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...

La win or loose your still the best out here

Glad to see you posting again for a big day of soccer LA! Thanks for sharing your plays and best of luck.

Well...that's before the Swiss/Canada game which is one of the games I really love.  Good luck 

Qatar is pathetic 

They’re ready to go home 

Bosnia tied Canada

Canada Beat them 6-0

I don’t see Bosnia can beat them by 2

Let’s get back on track both with the great picks and the games being watchable after 3 days of dog shit.

Bosnia stink as well.  If Qatar wins that game they advance fyi.  Not sure they are as ready to go home as you might think.  A tie and they are toast so they will push to score right out the gate knowing they are lacking in defense.  Bosnia seems to only score on set pieces as they are usually much bigger than their opponents.  

We need a much needed broom

Great write-up, mate. Really appreciate the insights here. The depth and detail you've gone into here is different gravy.  

Game time LFG and get him back 

Remember everyone this is the final group stage game. Means a TON to some teams and next to nothing for others. Plays will be reflexive of that as well. Let’s get some good action not gonna go back to the totals in these early games I’ve now misled us twice with that angle. 

TRUST THE PROCESS....