While neither USA nor Turkey have anything to play for in terms of their World Cup bracket fate, there’s still plenty on the line for the USMNT when they suit up on Thursday.
The Americans can take nine points from the group stage for the first time in their history, and my USA vs. Turkey predictions are expecting their heavily-rotated side to do just that as they maintain their momentum as World Cup odds favorites.
Read on for my World Cup picks for June 25.
TOP PICK
Who will win USA vs Turkey: USA moneyline (-116)
There will undoubtedly be wholesale changes to the USA lineup. Tyler Adams, Folarin Balogun, Antonee Robinson, and Chris Richards all come into the match sitting on a yellow card.
To risk them getting a second — and being suspended for the Round of 32 fixture — would be utterly foolish. Additionally, Christian Pulisic isn’t likely to be risked as he’s still coming back from injury.
That said, Mauricio Pochettino made it very clear in his Australia post-match presser that he wants to keep the momentum going with another victory.
He’s already shown an ability to adapt the USA formation to both his personnel and his opponent’s strengths. I expect him to set up the USMNT on Thursday to frustrate Turkey’s attackers.
Turkey’s 62 shots are by far the most of any nation in the tournament, but they’ve managed to put only 13 of those on target.
As the match against Paraguay progressed, you could see their frustration building as they simply fired at will. They put just five of their 32 shots on target, with a 0.67 xGOT compared to a 2.17 xG.
Look for Pochettino to key on that, deny their players clean looks, and wrap up the first-ever perfect World Cup group stage for the USMNT.
I’m backing the Yanks down to -120 as my top play.
USA vs Turkey Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 (-130)
News broke on Monday that CM Cristian Roldan is dealing with a muscle injury. This means with Adams held out, Pochettino faces a dilemma at the holding midfield role.
It also means that the Americans are likely to to allow a goal at some point. And given we’re backing them to win, logic dictates that we take the Over.
Turkey has looked very slow, especially on defense, and Australia hurt them multiple times on the break. The Americans have registered five direct attacks so far, tied for the fifth-most of any nation at the tournament.
Their pace up top, through players like Ricardo Pepi and Tim Weah, will allow them to generate quick attacking moves when Turkey turns the ball over.
On the flip side, the Americans have been a bit fortunate to have only conceded one goal. They’ve committed the third-most errors leading to shots, behind only Tunisia and Iraq.
Given the lack of stakes for either side, I don’t see defenders selling out to block shots. That should lead to a few more opportunities on goal as well.
This sets up for a match with at least three goals, but I wouldn’t play it past -130.
USA vs Turkey projected lineup
USA (4-2-3-1): Turner; Scally, McKenzie, Trusty, Arfsten; Berhalter, Aaronson, Reyna; Weah, Pepi, Zendejas.
Turkey (4-2-3-1): Cakir; Muldur, Demiral, Kabak, Kadioglu; Ozcan, Calhanoglu, Guler; Yilmaz, Akturkoglu, Yildiz.
USA vs Turkey injuries
USA: LW Christian Pulisic (Doubtful), CM Cristian Roldan (Doubtful).
Turkey: AM Kenan Yildiz (Probable), AM Yunus Akgun (Doubtful).
USA vs Turkey weather
Dome.
USA vs Turkey odds
| USA | Turkey | |
|---|---|---|
| -108 | Moneyline | +270 |
| +335 | Draw | +335 |
| Over 2.5 (-122) | Total | Under 2.5 (+117) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch USA vs Turkey
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA |
| Date | Thursday, June 25, 2026 |
| Time | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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