L2T Conference Betting Thread

Play #3 Buffalo +5 x 1U

-I think they should be favorite based on their strong offense and ability to buckle down and win a lot of games on defense .....Ohio has some shaky defensive stats and they will be lucky to pull away from Buffalo at any point with their offense.....not crazy good

-both rank correlation and spread are fades strongly against the favorite

I have a couple of more fades to consider and gonna line shop for them....and a couple of faves and same thing....lets see what comes up in the morning or around noon as I am only looking at 12 pm -230 pm games tonight besides my first 2 insta plays that I made 

Love your posts/write ups. Riding with you tomorrow. Lets get a slice or 2 

GL 

Saturdays can be tricky so be careful ... I am personally thinking of doing some DOUBLE UP bets ...1st leg lose, double my bet the next game and so on

Conference Betting ATS spreadsheet trends for favorites and spread trends: (fully updated including last night)

-its really coming together providing a clear picture now over 1+ seasons

-I like doing this every couple of Saturday's when there are a lot of games to remind me to look out for these situations and ignore trying to check every detail of every matchup....if I find a game, THEN I look deeper into the matchup

Best Fade of rank combos Against Favorites on any spread:

-28 (28 - 56 - 3 ATS) > when favorite is ranked #151 - 190 facing a team ranked #231 - 280

-17 (17 - 34  ATS) > #151 - 190 favorite faces #151 - 190 opponent

-17 (35 - 52 - 1 ATS) > #151 - 190 favorite faces #281 - 330 opponent 

-15 (31 - 46 - 5 ATS) > #121 - 150 favorite faces #231 - 280 opponent 

-15 (60 - 75 - 3 ATS) > #281 - 330 favorite faces another #281-330 opponent 

-11 (17 - 28 ATS) > #21 - 40 favorite faces a team ranked #91 - 120

-11 (11 - 22 - 1 ATS) > #151 - 190 favorite faces #121 - 150 opponent 

-11 (23 - 34 - 1 ATS) > #151 - 190 favorite faces #190 - 230 opponent

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When to highly consider taking the favorite on any spread:

+13 (56 - 43 - 3 ATS) #191 - 230 faces an opponent ranked #281 - 330

+12 (30 - 18 ATS) #91 - 120 faces an opponent ranked #231 - 280

+8 (28 - 20 ATS) #21 - 40 faces an opponent ranked #66 - 90

+8 (29 - 21 ATS) #1 - #20 faces an opponent ranked #66 - 90

+8 (37 - 29 ATS) #191 - 230 faces an opponent ranked #331 - 365

I tend to hone in on JUST all of  these plays and fades first .....check matchups on offense, defense, SOS and prior history and then if I have time, I get into other games for matchup angles

71-69 final OT. Nice call!

Play #4 Abilene @ UTArlington +2.5 x HALF U

-playing really really well lately beating two good teams in a row and this matchup is a rivalry

-UTA has trouble scoring at times and a good defense though

**VERY STRONG Double Fade matchup (rank correlation + spread)

-because the home team is low scoring, this could go to OT or be tight ...edge to Abilene on the FT line .... ML is possible but UTA's defense might create a cold shooting situation until the 2nd half where Abilene climbs back in ....like the POINTS here instead

Play #5 Louisiana Tech Under 124 x 1U

-this team has lost 3 in a row playing some tougher offenses and having to change their style of play to stay in the game 

- they will not have to do that in this one and can rely on their homecourt toughness and great defense to grind on their opponent when they have the ball and use full clock

-Delaware has a good defense too but not as good as Lou Tech...they will think they can stay in this game with tough defense

-love this situation when I see it

I see a final score like 64 -55 or lower .... 65 - 50

Play #6 - DOUBLE UP Play Michigan -18.5 x HALF U

-I would normally splash this when they are on home court and facing a team that cannot match their offense ....in fact, Michigan is probably the #1 combined rebounding overall (#8 offense/#11 defense) and defense against FG within the arc is #1

-this has the potential to be a 30 pt+ win especially if Nebraska can beat Wisconsin in their building by 30!

NEXT LEG if I lose is x 1U, otherwise, it begins the next DOUBLE UP situation.....

Play #7 Indiana St -7.5 2nd Double Up Play x HALF U (2nd one that has to be covered if I fail)

- another good 1pm matchup

-Evansville had a decent team last year but not this year....and they went into Indiana St homecourt and stole a win which is rare because of IST ability to protect their homecourt over the years...very rabid fans

-revenge game...much much better team this year with shoe on the other foot for Indiana St 

-terrible shooting stats by Evansville and an 8 game loss streak....Indiana St has lost 4 of 5 but those games were mostly on the road and against the better teams in their conference

Play #8 - Central Conn/LeMoyne Over 146 x HALF U

-CC has some great shooting stats and #8 for three point and LeMoyne's defensive weakness is just that 

-traditionally, when these teams play, its over 150 easily so I am not sure why this total is too low ....no injury issues and with a tight line, OT is possible but the other thing I like is the fact they are both decent on the FT line 

Play #9 - South Alabama Under 148.5 x HALF U

-SAB should be able to dictate the style of play at home and they have a tough defense .....GSOUTH likes to stay close with their opponent and match buckets but their shooting stats are NOT better than SAB .... traditionally, this matchup goes UNDER this number and this year SAB has a strong defense to help get it there....GSOUTH played Lou Tech who was on the road and is very defensive too and their number went UNDER this number too

Hope you like a lot of plays today  ...I have updated all my stats and feeling pretty good.....now I will focus on 3 pm games to look for DOUBLE UPs for my two 1 pm offerings

@Last2thirst

Thanks for the work on these! Let's get 'em!

If following....I wouldn't take them all...be selective and don't over bet unless it makes sense to you 

@Last2thirst

Your play No.1, Ut St vs Boise St., you said they have similar S.O.S. I don't see that. I think Boise St has had a much tougher S.O.S. with tougher opponents.  I base that on KenPom Pomeroy ratings. +8.88 vs +0.70 NetRtg

Ok....it looks like both plays are going to be DOUBLE UPs for 1 U each...love the challenge

I will have something for 3 or 4 pm games to counter those plays and get to .500 on those two but more importantly, make some cash because the bet size grows

Boise #54 

Utah St #83

I don't use those ratings because they never worked for me and slowed me down....I use this and another site which updates ranks etc ....you go ahead and use what works best for you. Appreciate the heads up 

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other

That is similar in my books

Play #10 Iowa St UNDER 165.5 x 1U  (Double Up Leg #2)

-only one head to head game came anywhere near close to this......out of 10 matchups, and that was an OT game that ended at 166 total...there will be no OT in this game!

-Iowa St has one of the best shutdown defenses and they can shoot lights out....expect the latter to happen first and then the former personality to take over and control the game flow keeping this UNDER 

Play #11 Lipscomb +3.5 x 1U  (Double Up  Leg #2)

-this is a very strong Double Fade of the favorite and last 3 seasons, Lipscomb has dominated this series, is ranked a little higher and has a better offense and definitely better defense

I cannot believe the COLLAPSE of Buffalo in the 2nd half ....Ohio was up by 26 - 8 in second half points and this happens sometimes ....you just don't fire on good correlations and they shoot blanks 

Might have to cool my engines and just let dogs lie .....got those later big bets to hang my hat on or further dig my grave

0-7 - 4.5 U so far

4 Plays open totaling 8U to carve back this slide......maybe?

Onto to horses. I know when to quit when trends don't mesh and everything goes opposite. This happens in gambling! 

I will handle any 3rd Leg of Double Ups tomorrow. Not a good thing to try completing any today with this start

@Last2thirst

As my dear ol' pop used to say, that's why it's called fishin' and not catchin'. Applies, somewhat, anyway. Tomorrow's another day. Good luck on the ponies...  

2-2 in Double Ups... Phew!

-looks like Montana got squeaked out too ....ah crap...one of those days

2 - 8 - 3.5 U 

I have one play worth 5U ...its either I am up $150 today or down -$850 ....quite the swing

Only 2 races to go in Mohawk Standardbred PICK5 .... PICK5 started with over $80 000 in the pool and only $188 worth of tickets left with two races to go and guess what.....I have two tickets totaling $72 worth alive ....this could pay $1000-3000 tonight ...maybe bigger

3 - 9 +1.5 UNITS Today. I always thought that a terrible record was possible and said so in one post BUT you can always press on ONE PLAY that you are super confident in and the line does not make sense

UTAH ST -1.5 x 5U   81 - 53 with 6.5 minutes to go

Saturday's are the funkiest day to bet NCAAB....I have had one stellar Saturday the whole season 11 - 3  one week, otherwise, I am losing or just wasting time. Its why I decided to PRESS on my favorite improper line by Vegas

Sunday Play #1 - Illinois ML x 1U

-I'll take my shot on the more complete/higher rated team who has beaten better teams.....

-Illinois know how to manufacture buckets and are the #2 FT team so Iowa better be careful 

-this will be a close game but the difference is going to be the defense of the Illini, their Offensive rebounding and free throw prowess 

I mulled whether this line is vastly incorrect like the Utah St line last night but ...... best not to be so bold after a 3 - 9 Saturday 

Play #2 - UCF -3 x 2U

 - double positive spread and rank grouping....

- superior offense and their home court makes them beasts

- Cincy to me is playing way above their heads and their stats 

- a pretty good guard is out for Cincy and they are 0-2 with him out of the line up

EXACT EVEN SOS:

56 Cincinnati (8-7) 5.5 
57 UCF (12-2) 5.5

Point Differential and Rank from my spreadsheet: Who do you like?

Cincinnati (#75) 73.7 OFF (+8.4) 65.3 DEF

UCF (#33) 86.9 OFF (+14.1) 75.8 DEF

UCF is #8 in 3 pt shots, 3x better rank than Cincy on the foul line and rebound better than Cincy

 Vegas line suggests these teams are dead even on a neutral court (-3 for UCF at home)

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Almost every other line I am matching up is a FADE on the rank groups and sometimes poor spread record.....Vegas is setting traps all over the schedule tomorrow in my opinion...perfect for the 'feel ' bettors!