L2T Conference Betting Thread

@Last2thirst

 Nice call with Utah State!  And how did the horses end up?

@Last2thirst

 Nice call with Utah State!  And how did the horses end up?

@Last2thirst

So happy you’re on UCF! Right there with you today. GL ROLLZ!

Thanks for asking.

I got a Backup exactor for $10 paying $29 per in the 4th leg so I got back $145 after spending $92 on the tickets

I had it mapped out correctly but spent too much on the front end and left myself thin on the backend of the Pick5 which paid over $18 000 for a $1 play....I had a $1 play and a 20 cent longer shot play open that did not hit because I lost my key horse in the 4th race by a neck....all good though.....its fun to be in those opportunities and my third choice to win it stole it from my top 2 picks that I keyed one on one ticket (8-1 morning line - Onlythegooddieyoung) and the fave dropping down on the other for a $1 play..... but if you are going to spend $80-100 or more, you should back up your thinnest race leg and I did

They have always been a favorite over the years of a homer court that wins more tough games than loses.....and this is their best team in 10 years at least !

Fave great home courts no matter the spread (over performers):

Indiana St

UCF  

South Florida

Denver

Wyoming 

Colorado

SFAustin

Charleston

Now that I bet almost exclusively with analytics that I chart personally, I still take them into consideration but often don't bet them anymore.....as I now see and purely believe, Vegas has a system that sets first lines to the disadvantage of trends like today's card where almost every line falls into the FADE category

Despite the line swinging to Illinois, it still sets up well for them.... 

Top 20 teams are 24 - 19 ATS when playing a team ranked 21 - 40th (Iowa).....generally though, matchup spreads tend not to get this low 

Last one in Conference play was Duke a week ago at -1.5 and they won easily vs a tough home court 

Good start ...

Sunday Play #1 - Illinois ML x 1U   ...they lead the whole way

This season is showing early that matchup stats really matter if the correlation is ok or good

Up next, UCF -3 x 2U open play 

Illinois  

@Last2thirst

 Enjoying your plays and analysis keep up the good work last2!!

Did not get UCF ....this Cincy team is gritty and does not give up!!

 Some great luck happened in another way...my wife and I sometime do a Bingo session for 2-3 hrs and just got back ....won 2 Lines and the only winner for $1000 

Crazy lucky because that is only our third time and we are playing with the beginner 2 line package !

I said to my wife, why get the 3 and 4 strips paying more when probably the beginners packages have winners in them to hook newbies and we can grab one when we play once in a while

Jose 

Likely won't be done my massive data upgrade that I started late Sunday night....should be done by late tonight and so will look into offering some ideas for tomorrow

Seeing massive changes in team data in quite a few instances ...specifically SOS and pts on on offense so this was very necessary and can only help

GL tonight ....

Upon glance, I would suggest Under Virginia Louisville if you can get 154.5 and Under 150.5 on Kansas -Iowa St

Faves that I think can cover at home....

#1 Play would be Syracuse -6 

#2 Michigan St -7

#3 Belmont -11.5...like -10.5 better which is what I saw earlier

I have a lot of faith and respect in this Michigan St team....they fight and claw and find a way to grind on you and play fundamentals to get their talent over the top. I cannot wait to see them play Michigan. That will be something!

Play #1 Wednesday - High Point +2.5 x 1.5U and Half U ML

-Winthrop should not be favorite and a team of their ranking with a spread of -2.5 is   37 - 61 - 2 ATS over the past 2 seasons

- High Point is ranked #111 vs Winthrop #177

-High Point has owned this series completely 

Will shop for some more in the morning...

Lol ... High Point line has swung 4 pts toward them and now fave at -1.5

I'm thinking still a play but maybe pull back to 1U?

that line move worries me  very rarely to they cover  when there is a 4-5 pt move over night  , what i believe happens is, its not all money that moves it, books realize maybe its a bad line and once they get hit with HP money at +3.5 they just correct it and then see what happens  i worked at WWTS years ago, that line moved quickly....vegas Insider does not even show a Hp +3.5  they show HP +1.5  and even at 9:37 am they were +1.5 then at 9:43 am it went to HP -1.5  i wasnt up last night looking so i do not know where it was +3.5 at  but thats what they are showing   Vegas insider use to show ya like 8 casino's and the line movement at all 8 i liked that alot  

gl on your plays 

I have HP -2 now. Maybe it is sharp money on them? You guys know more than I do but I'm workin' on that...

Take your pick as to what you like:  (in brackets = SOS rank)

-all my point differentials (PD) are done for all teams Offensive pts vs Defensive pts allowed 

**won't mention HP - already laid it +2.5/ML

Sizable Differences 6/6:30 pm games:

(232) ETSU +9.8 PD @ (240) W. Carolina -13.8 PD with a -7 road fave 

(310) Chattanooga -7.5 PD @ (283) Wofford -0.4 PD with a -5.5 home fave

(54) VCU +12.5 PD @ (138) Rhode Island +6.2 PD with a -4 road fave

(37) Butler +8.7 PD @ (60) Xavier +0.4 PD with a -1.5 road fave  (lost 3 in a row but ran the gauntlet of tough teams in Big East ) 

-Butler outscores Xavier by 9pts per game on offense (Xavier lives and dies by the 3 pt shot mostly)

Play #2 Butler -1.5 x HALF U

I was line sharp on it right away....play it now??? Use in parlay would be my suggestion

Seems to me, the home team of Winthrop check the lines last night and saw they were faves and then dogs before game time....haha

That could be motivating and its not farfetched to think they don't know with the game listed on their phones that they constantly look at...what else are they going to look at? Politics ? 

Kent St -5.5 x 1U

- I don't think this game will be close in the 2nd half.. Toledo does not play defense for stretches and Kent St does but both are strong offensive teams...if Kent St had this line on the road, I would be inclined to play the OVER and still think the OVER is possible but you have to ask yourself, why has the TOTAL dropped 4 pts and its because of Kent St 

Like Providence ML but just going with one play so far... 8 - 9 and they can play ...just a tough schedule and their coach will demand they do not fall 2 games UNDER .500

Baylor - Kansas TOTAL is too high ....just be at 149.5 ...Kansas with a excellent defense and they shutdown one of the best shooting teams in college in their last game 

Wow....every time Kent comes down ref calls a foul....every time for the last 8 minutes or so......how can I cover??