L2T Conference Betting Thread

Damn the Yale line was -6 at tip-off at bet rivers for me.

Play #3 - Harvard -2.5 x  2.5U

-Harvard wants to play YALE their deep rival and they will not overlook Penn because they got beat by them in a tight game

- I like this line now that it is under 3 pts because Harvard has a stronger defense and #2 FT team in the land ....Penn's defense is good but not as good as Harvard's so Harvard can mix up their play calls and put them on their heels forcing them to fould later in the game as well.....Penn is ranked #307 FT and that is a HUGE difference in a tight game

I will definitely play a winning margin bet as well ....split a HALF U 

$20 Penn winning margin by 1-2 pts @ +1000

$30 Harvard winning margin by 1-2 pts @ +1000

This looks like it could be my play of the day with some nice angles here or I lose it all with a Penn win by -3 ?? 

I like the risk feel on this one !

Got something better I believe and playing it the way with the WINNING MARGIN is the best way to approach it ....man, I love the betting portal I use!

Are you saying the move would have been to do winning margin instead of yale-6?

It was a no bet at -6 for me 

No... you confuse my last play suggestion with Yale game..... Look at my Harvard proposition

But, I agree with Yale -6 ....getting steep in a CONFERENCE game where the dog has beaten them already and believe 

Ahhh

i have Harvard -3.5 at -105 or -2.5 at -122

Margins are not out for me yet but will be shortly 

No play on Dayton??

Live play perhaps for me!

I only played some parlays with some soccer plays which went to shit more than half of them (Saturday soccer is always suspect trying to combine favorites!!)

.... I won $1178 on a PICK5 and press DBL last night in horses so I drove the 10 km up to Woodbine track to go collect cash and go lay 2 nice PICK5 for Woodbine Mohawk harness races tonight..... I will post the picks in my harness thread

I love the spring for betting horses...all the young horses who don't show anything in qualifiers but have great breeding and solid trainers win races at 3-1 to 15-1 and I keyed one last night hitting 5-1 when it was a 10 -1 morning line.

If you can believe it....Harvard still has NOT had a chance to put up a FT shot yet....last 3 min+ and a lead and this is where they will shine

Wow

Today's results: - not sure I will play more....need to work on NCAAB prep instead and watch horses

Play #1 - Yale -4 x 1U  

OVER 163 x HALF U 

Play #3 - Harvard -2.5 x  2.5U  

$20 Penn winning margin by 1-2 pts @ +1000    gain $220 back

$30 Harvard winning margin by 1-2 pts @ +1000  lose $30

Made close to $100 ....good enough

Enjoy your evening ....will post a play later if I get inspired by something...

Just 10 teams to be chosen tomorrow after play. I have 58 teams with a seat ..........with 5 Finals to be determined without a seat for the loser which will make the 58 teams. Then the Committee has to decide on the 10 team playing.

I will provide my TOP TEAMS by WINNING POWER ....meaning, who they beat on their schedule with the following weighting:

-beat a Top 18 team = 2 pts

-beat a Top 19-36 team = 1 pt

-beat a Top 37- 69 team = 0.5 pt

***Bonus pts

+0.5 if neutral site game vs a top 69 team

+0.25 if win on the road vs a top 69 team 

Note: - only 3 Conferences had the super rigorous schedules due to how tough their Conferences are so they are:

1 : 1 ratio for their final score

Big 10

SEC

BIG 12

All other Conferences are 2 : 1 ratio for final WINNING POWER RATIO

*** except WAC  team > Gonzaga had a stiff Non Conf schedule but conference are not as strong

*** except UCONN and St.Johns who played an early stiff Non Conf schedule but conference not as strong

^^ these 3 teams are given a 3 : 2 ratio multiplier on their final WINNING POWER TOTAL 

I have a lot of experience playing a lot of pools every year and there has to be a way to quantify and rate teams accordingly to determine THE VALUE of a spread in the matchups and I feel this final system will account for a true measure of how the teams FILTER in strenght relatively....

I am also preparing who beat who in the top 69 of any team in the Tourney .....and by how much....for my own help on determining terrible lines . I will post my list of Top 36 WINNING POWER teams  (who have made the tourney already and beat a TOP 69 team ) 

TOP 36 WINNING POWER TEAMS (17 teams have made tourney demonstrating 0 Winning Power pts except 1 team)

- will update this tomorrow to show all teams that have Winning Power Points 

***note - no Conference games were included in team totals > just Conf and Non-Conf. schedule

#1 Duke       21.5

#2 Michigan  21.25

#3 UCONN    20.5

#4 Arizona    20.0

--------------------------

#5 Kansas     15.0

#6 TTech       14.75

#7 Florida      14.0

#8 Mich. St.   13.75

#9 Illinois      12.75

#10 Iowa St   12.5

#11 Purdue    12.25

#12 Gonz.      12

#13 Houston   11.75

#14 BYU         11.75

#15 Alabama   11.5

#16 Wiscon.    11.5

#17 St.Johns   10.5

#18 TCU         10.5

#19 UNC         10.5

#20 Vandy       10

< 10 

Virgina     9.5

Tenn        9.25

Arkansas  9

Georgia    8.75

Clemson   8.5

Nebraska  8.5

Utah St     8

Kentucky  8

Louisville  8

UCLA       7.75

St.Marys  7

Ohio St    5.5

Villanova  5.5

Iowa        5

St.Louis    4.5

Miami       3.5

Bubble teams with BEST WINNING POWER: SOS provided also 

 Auburn   9.25   (17 - 16) >  #16   << YES 

UCF        7.25   (21 - 11) >  #47   << YES 

Texas      6.75   (18 - 14) >  #24  << YES 

Cincy      6.25   (18 - 15) >  #41

Missouri   6       (20 - 12) >  #36

Oklahoma 5.75  (19 - 15) >  #27  << YES 

WVU        5.25   (18 - 14) >  #60

Baylor      4.75   (16 - 16) >  #32  

TexAM      4.75   (21 - 11) >  #33  << YES 

NC St.      4.5     (20 - 13) >  #34  << YES 

Indiana     4.25   (18 - 14) >  #28

VCU          4       (26 - 7)  >  #85   << YES 

Seton H.    4      (21 - 12) > #66   

New Mex   3.5    (22 - 7) >  #84  

SMU         3.5    (20 - 13) >  #44  << YES

SDST        3      (22 - 11) >  #76

Santa Cl    2      (26 - 8)   >  #79   << YES

Miami OH   0    (31 - 1) >  #195  << YES 

YES = who I think committee will end up picking ....hardest decisions will be on Indiana, Seton Hall, Missouri, Miami Ohio, Santa Clara and WVU 

Committee has a mess to deal with..... and I have been shocked before but I went through all the teams on the bubble and who has WINNING POWER or a great record

Another way of looking at the TOP teams and ordering them on how far they might go: - based on Quality Wins

'2'  game = Top 20 win (using my unbiased ranking service that is based on power wins+ analytics)

'1' game = Top 21 - 40 win

*** this is more important than win/loss record*** (otherwise, name me the last 0x WP win team to get to Final Four? <<< you must get your 4 picks in your bracket to FINAL FOUR to cash a bracket pool!!!!)

Most 'Experienced' Winning Power Teams: ( '2' wins mean a higher rank position)

Michigan > 6x / 4x 

Duke      > 6x / 4x

Arizona   > 5x / 5x

Mich St   > 4x / 3x

Kansas   > 4x / 3x

TTech     > 4x / 2x

Wisc.      > 4x / 1x

-----------------------

Florida    > 3x / 5x

UCONN   > 3x / 4x

Illinois     > 3x / 3x

Purdue    > 3x / 3x

Iowa St.  > 3x / 3x

UNC        > 3x / 3x

Alabama  > 3x / 2x

TCU         > 3x / 1x

Auburn     > 3x / 1x   << strong case to be in NCAAB tourney despite 17 - 16 record

UCLA        > 3x / 0x

---------------------------- maybe teams to go far?

BYU          > 2x / 4x

Kentucky   > 2x / 4x

Tennessee  >2x / 3x

Georgia     > 2x / 3x

Houston    > 2x / 1x

Nebraska   > 2x / 1x

Your Cinderella/'Maybe' teams: - bubble teams in blue font

 Virginia    > 1x / 5x

Vandy      > 1x / 5x

Clemson   > 1x / 4x

Gonzaga   > 1x / 3x

St.Johns   > 1x / 3x

Arkansas  > 1x / 3x 

Texas       > 1x / 3x  

Missouri    > 1x / 3x 

Ohio St     > 1x / 2x

Cincy        > 1x / 2x

UCF          > 1x / 2x 

St Marys   > 1x / 1x

Indiana     > 1x / 1x

Iowa         > 1x / 0x

VTech        > 1x / 0x 

IF we base strongest/highest quality wins ....these teams should be in and that would reduce the guaranteed in pool to 56 teams so this leaves 12 teams to be added considering:

-all of the above bubble teams with 1x TOP 20 wins 

-4 of the NON - TOP 20 wins in the list below  (*** my big takeaway from doing this.....why is Miami so highly regarded and an instant add into the tourney???      0x / 1x  <<< )

***  further adds list - Pick 4 more (with few high quality wins but great records /competitiveness)

Miami ?

St. Louis?

VCU ? 

Santa Clara?

Miami Ohio?

So who is going to be left out? My gut says one of: Miami Ohio, Santa Clara, VTECH

Whether Dayton or VCU wins, Wichita or USF and Penn or Yale wins....doesn't matter ....but the only team out of those that has a shot of getting in despite losing their Conference Final are 

VCU > 0x / 2x quality wins

South Florida > they have 0x / 1x for quality wins and would have to be considered if they lost (above Miami Ohio?)

Action for Today - Sunday:

Play #1 - UNDER 165.5 x HALF U - Vandy/Arky

-too high for a final unless it goes to OT

Play #2 - parlay Michigan ML 1.38 x Michigan Under 149.5 @1.9 > pays +162  x 1.5U 

also - hedge same parlay but with Michigan OVER 149.5 x HALF U << will get back about 40% of money if I lose above bet which is not too bad to take a stab at it

@Last2thirst

 love the lay last 2! 

thank you for all of the useful info you post, it’s appreciated!

Yale should not get an invite, nor Dayton likely  .....  however, the did beat St.Louis at home for 0x Top 20 and 1x Top 21 - 40 rank scalp

Thanks Juice  > hope I get them both 

Carz , thank you

Ready and primed for NCAAB tourney + all others (NIT, CBB, etc) - all my work should lead to having an edge more than likely but you can be 'over prepared' sometimes in betting and I know this with horses (it happened last night as I forgot to take a top trainer horse with a strong driver rated not too highly in a tough race BUT the horse/driver/trainer combo won at 40 - 1 and I was intending to use the horse in a PICK3 but got lost in my betting plan that I had on paper!)

Action for Today - Sunday:

Play #1 - UNDER 165.5 x HALF U - Vandy/Arky  

-too high for a final unless it goes to OT

 --------------------------------------------------- up next .....

Play #2 - parlay Michigan ML 1.38 x Michigan Under 149.5 @1.9 > pays +162  x 1.5U 

also - hedge same parlay but with Michigan OVER 149.5 x HALF U

Michigan not gonna win.... wow

Auburn, Cincy and WVU all have a case to be made .....played and defeated tougher regularly but as per tradition, the committee rewards WINNING in crap conferences who never step out and play tougher competition

Now, concerning capping. You have to realize, teams are going to be playing a NON CONFERENCE SCHEDULE here .....so my Nov 1 - Dec 26 spreadsheet applies. << this is an advantage!!

Also, spreads are going to matter where Vegas sets them and I will bring those up as well.

I would not be too worried about jumping on early lines.... take time and dive into a matchup! I will be likely playing DOUBLE UP rules so, if I lose 3x , I lose 7 UNITS .....but only if I get off to a +3-5U start possibly ...mulling the idea but going to first of all line up my matchup charts and then prep each first round game as a win or lose situation and I DO NOT CARE ABOUT fishing for upsets....they will come regardless