Play #6 - Akron - TTECH OVER 156 x HALF U
-Akron has a high powered offense, good offensive rebouding too and shoot good FTs
-TTECH is a carbon copy but they have the 8th best three point shooting in the land and many can do it...they don't need Toppin and they face the 256th defense vs the 3pt
-SEC is a fast passing conference with athletes who can drive one on one or kick out to an open shoot on the arc....Akron won't be as fast so I expect Akron to play uptempo to try to get points in transition and hit the open shooter too ...Akron the 22nd best 3 pt team
-one team should be guaranteed OVER and with the 3 pt shooters on the floor, you would expect fouling to happen pretty consistently if one team is up by 7-10 pts so FTs I believe guarantee this goes over ....Akron is 66th and TTECH is ranked #221
Just changed to a HALF U....checked last years 1st round games and totals going over 156 were an outlier in the first round ....scroll down and have a look https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2026-01-13/2025-ncaa-bracket-scores-stats-march-madness-mens-tournament
Best 'free and easy' playing teams I have watched so far in the tourney ......
Look ready, all of their players:
Michigan
St. Louis
And now they play each other?
One thing I know STL will not be able to do against Michigan is drive the ball to the hoop so I am looking at this TOTAL a little suspiciously
Play #7 UTAH ST ML parlay 1.76 x STJ ml 1.17 > pays +105 x 1U
-Villanova has less than a few scalps of top 40 teams
-Utah st has more and generally play a complete game on both sides of the ball and put pressure on the ball occasionally which is not really a Big East thing unless it STJ's
I have to say, I am seeing some good opportunities slip by and hesitating betting them BUT I won't be unless I really feel something and the analytics lines up
I've actually done 8 plays now...got lost in count
3- 3 (-40 or roughly HALF U down)
Have this one open > Play #3 - Hofstra +11.5 x HALF U and separate > Play #4 UNDER 160.5 x HALF U
and this one > Play #7 UTAH ST ML parlay 1.76 x STJ ml 1.17 > pays +105 x 1U
I am winding up for a big one next round most likely 3-5 U but won't know until I see it...I am trying not to look ahead too far
I wanted to smash Wright St-Virginia Over but hesitated...just like one yesterday...Wright St does not play defense and they can score 90-100 in their league easily ...its about to go over....I have them in parlays all over the place with other games and soccer plays in local parlays
First Round Analytics 2026/Win - Loss by Conference Ist Round : (2025 W/L too)
*** just 3 more games to avg in but this should reveal some things: -
2026 2025 Final Four Final
SEC = 85.0 pts per game / 8 - 1 8 - 5 2 teams 1 team (winner)
B10 = 85.1 pts per game / 7 - 2 8 - 0 0 teams
B12 = 82.4 pts per game / 5 - 2 6 - 1 1 team 1 team
ACC = 75.0 pts per game / 3 - 2 1 - 3 1 team
B.East = 77.5 pts per game / 1- 1 3 - 2 -
Top Middies = 80.7 pts per game / 3 - 4 6 - 2 -
Other = 65.7 pts per game / 1 - 16
Round of 32: (4 - 4 +$30 in Round #1)
Play #1 - Michigan - St.Louis OVER 161.5 x 2U
-I am not blinking on this number at all
- Michigan will be able to stop ST.L easy drives into the lane but they cannot stop their shooting and their defense is good but nowhere near good enough to prevent Michigan from scoring at will
- Michigan looked gassed after Conference Finals but their last game was free and easy and they will play this way too relying on their interior defense and strong bench to keep the pace high on STL who will try to answer and score fast like they did every 5-10 seconds it seemed vs Georgia
Michigan is not ready to play defense yet....understand that they are going to be playing high powered offenses next round in SEC scoring dynamos Alabama or Texas Tech ....pedal to the floor in this game tomorrow and then some time off
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Looking into the Louisville /Sparty matchup.... Louisville in trouble at the guard position in that one in my opinion....and if they don't hit 3 pt, I don't think they have the speed of Sparty in their passing and cutting /hand speed
-4.5 seems low (I've watched both play and Sparty is battle -hardened and tough as nails)
Game winners I am very certain of tomorrow:
Michigan, Sparty, Houston, Duke,
Likely:
Arkansas, Vanderbilt
Don't like the Matchup:
Gonzaga-Texas , Illinois - VCU
Good value: High Point +11.5 , Under Duke 139.5, Michigan Over 161.5, Texas +6.5, VCU +11.5 <<< some good teaser plays there and should hit 3-2 / 4 - 1 as is ....
Play #2 Parlay: Michigan ML with Sparty ML with Duke ML with Houston ML x 2.5 U pays > +136
Play #3 Parlay: Same as above add Arkansas x HALF U > pays > +171
Play #4 Parlay: Same as Play #2 parlay but add High Point +11.5 x HALF U > pays > +348
Play #5 Parlay: Mich/Sparty/Houston with Duke Under x HALF U > pays +296
ALSO: -wheel each combination of 3 teams in main parlay (see below) x $25 each and combine each combo with Vanderbilt ML and Arkansas ML to make 5 way parlay combos
4 x $25 (each parlay combo pays):
Mich/Sparty/Duke / V/ Ark = +306
Mich/Sparty/ Houston/ V/Ark = +339
Mich/ Duke/ Houston / V/Ark = +222
Sparty/Duke/Houston / V/Ark = +347
One major upset....I sink the whole boat......the chances you take right?? Making my move on parlays for $500
Sparty loses, I lose over $400 so >> $25 winning margin bet on Louisville to win by 1-2 pts +1100 > would pay back $300
I have some very strong thoughts on one line tomorrow .....and definitely some more parlays should today turn out as I expect and if it doesn't, I still might do some more parlays tomorrow (not revealing my picks just yet)
Sunday games I am eyeing:
Miami/Purdue > huge disparity in SOS tough game results
Kentucky/Iowa St. > just don't feel one side has the consistency on offense and defense to prevent 3 pt shooting barrage
St.Johns/Kansas > have you watched STJ play tough teams?? They are super competitive, big strong but fast bodies that cover a lot of ground and man, when motivated, they can play lockdown defense as good as anyone and I have not seen Kansas overcome too many defenses like that + offensive packages that STJs has .... both teams will be motivated because I think SELF realizes that his team needed a breather and to hit the weight room and get stronger which I would have done as a coach in the time in between and lots of shooting practice/speed work on top of it ...of all the games above however, Kansas has the best chance if ready to put together a killer performance which have proven they can when you look at the high number of Top 20 wins! I am looking forward to this game. as I am a big fan of both coaches!
Iowa/Florida > Iowa used to playing big strong teams but don't have the offensive arsenal Florida has
Other 3 games > tricky ....and that includes Utah St-Arizona which I don't believe they will beat them but have a package of players/system that on a great overall game, they COULD beat a young Arizona team misfiring maybe 1 game out of 20 so like Dumber and Dumber movie great line " So, you are saying there is a chance?" ..... other 2 games are coin tosses possibly
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POTENTIAL BLOWOUT ALERT > don't get caught up in StL scoring at will and 100 pt game.... Michigan has a habit of taking a potential beast matchup and slaying that dragon in spades scoring 90-100+ points themselves which is what I expect we will see from this team today
SOS rank vs Top 40 Teams
Michigan #1 > 7 wins vs Top 20 / 6 wins vs #21 - 40
St.Louis #95 > 0 wins vs Top 20 / 2 wins vs #21 - 40 (Georgia last win
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** Michigan toughest wins neutral court = Gonzaga (by 40), Wisconsin (by 3)
*St Louis toughest wins neutral court = Santa Clara (by 1), Georgia blowout win
GL today 
Good start to the OVER Michigan game...
Friend saw 2 games at KEY BANK arena in Buffalo as its only a 1.5 hour drive across the border. He went with a friend who was a former player at Buffalo years back and they walked down to the floor ....his comments to my friend were, the sight lines and lighting is ideal for shooters!
So the games so far there, are proving that and that is why I was comfortable with the OVER and in hindsight, maybe I should have splashed this for more but just liked the parlay chances better. The game is a track meet so far and that is from STL perspective.....Michigan looks calm and lethal on their shooting
Michigan can do whatever they want ...inside, outside if you are watching....and the fact the coaches are friends, I can see STL bigs fouling out and their speed and outside shooting game taking over later and this will probably end up over 180 pts
Realize, the second half scoring is always more than first half......and Michigan will not slow down because they will be playing a similar style of game next vs either Texas Tech or Alabama
STL dna and chance to win here comes from the 3 pt arc and they will foul late if within 12 pts of Michigan starting with 2-3 minutes to go is my prediction
I predict a final score of 96 - 80 final >> might end up higher
I can see what Dusty is doing as far as setup against 3 pt successful teams with his bigs.....smart deploying Mara now on the outside because of the help he has inside as well if a play drives on him but his reach on a layup is so good that he blocks a lot from behind..... you already have Landenberg guard point or best shooter outside..... Michigan is setup to exploit inside outside on offense with keeping Mara on the outside and just using him in rebounding and scramble plays in tight
Opening up the middle vs Bama and TTECH will be key for their offense ....Cadeaux and Landenborg are deadly drivinging inside the lane and Johnson has such good hands around the bucket and positioning/great FT shooter at 84.9% so this Michigan team is setup so well vs fast paced/high scoring teams...
I can see what Dusty May is doing....he will hold his defensive game plan for the final four I bet.....right now he does not need it
If you already have good money on 161.5 ....don't get greedy.... better to plan on some other plays with your profits and then not feel pressed on later plays or tomorrow. I am speaking from degenerate experience and I am moving out of that mindset if you noticed (although, one could say my parlay mixers for $500 is degenerate 
)
I think 173 shouldn't be a problem but I stopped watching it so not sure of game flow right now....I have some other things to look at for now but will catch the last 5 minutes
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