Posted:
#801
Appreciate the work and sharing.
looking forward to following along.
L2T Conference Betting Thread
Posted:
#802
I have aligned all the teams with spreads and totals in my chart for the 1st round....
I love 5 trend plays (using Non Conf Data), but have not been look at SPREAD trends.... 2 of the spreads hit a WHOPPER Non-Conf trend (20 - 6 ATS) in the rank groups.....if the spreads check out, I will likely make a 1U or 2U play on those
I love 2 TOTALs ...has me very intrigued and I want to go OVER on both
Let me do some more work on the matchups and SPREADS and I should post my first plays....actually, I am hoping for some line movement and so I won't post any hints.
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Posted:
#803
Ok....I have seen enough on one of my plays ....line starting to go down and I just uncovered a significant nugget to fade the favorite
Play #1 - TROY +13 x 2U
-Troy beat San Diego St in OT .....and lost to USC by 1 in OT when Marza and their team was playing very well...this team is scrappy and are used to the tourney over the years
-Troy has a strong 3 pt defense and Nebraska likes using clock and hitting the 3 pt shot
-Troy is 3 - 1 on neutral courts winning by 6.8 on avg
-Nebraska is 3 - 1 wining by 0.8 pts on avg on neutral courts
I might take a swing at the UNDER too ...watching the line
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Posted:
#805
The case for TCU vs Ohio St: Play #2 TCU +2.5 x 1U/ win +115 x HALF U
- beat Wisconsin by 11 on neutral court
-lost to Michigan by only 4 on home court
-beat Florida on neutral court
-TCU is 4 - 1 on neutral court with and avg win by 5.4 pts
-Ohio St 2 - 3 and avg win by -1 pt in its 5 games
-TCU with 3x Top 20 wins and Ohio St with only 1x
--------------------------------------------------------------
Case for Ohio St > 15 - 14 ATS in this rank group matchup (meh)
> spread for fave in Non Conf matchup is 17 - 16 ATS (meh)
> Ohio St SOS = #20 / TCU = #40
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Posted:
#806
Play #3 - Hofstra +11.5 x HALF U and separate > Play #4 UNDER 160.5 x HALF U
-line has already adjusted 2 pts since open and 1 pt since the news so I am not going to over play this
-feels like a gift given the news tonight that star guard Eden Holloway, the best BAMA 3 pt shooter is arrested and done on felony drug charges
- how does Bama generate offense to replace it? They will but not the same
- this rattles a team
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Posted:
#808
Quote Originally Posted by FelixFermin21:
@Last2thirst BOL!!!
@Last2thirst BOL!!!
Thanks Felix 
.... weird thing is happening once again this year around this time, I get nervous filling out brackets haha....but just realize, I need to not grip the hockey stick or baseball bat too tight and just relax and let it rip to move my shots where I want them to go..... truthfully, a part of me wants to make $1K+ during the tourney and maybe I am searching for the 'right pick' when these last 3 plays just came to me.
I am just starting my next wave of capping right now to see if I can find another one for Thursday or Friday and will devote some more time tomorrow
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Posted:
#809
TIP: - not sure if people have noticed, but the NIT tourney is starting and in the first set of playdowns, the HOME TEAM is actually playing in their home building and usually its offered to the team with the better rank between the two in the matchup
- over the years, the home team tends to dominate and win BUT ....not sure of spread wins ....so it might not be a bad idea to do some 3 way moneyline parlays swinging all home teams and then doing 4 ways with 1 team upset in your string....these can pay well. I am not sure if I want to do this and waste the time I want to spend capping for the NCAAB tourney as I am planning to go into 5 paid tourney bracket pools costing me about $285 so ....just a suggestion for those that want to tinker and have some action fun
e.g. G.MASON with Yale with Wichita ml parlay multiplier pays +193
GM with Yale with Okla St pays +176
GM with Yale with Tulsa pays +185
GM with Wichita with Okla St
GM with Wichita with Tulsa
GM with Okla St with Tulsa
Yale with Wichita with Okla St
Yale with Wichita with Tulsa
Yale with Okla St with Tulsa
Wichita with Okla St with Tulsa
*** do those 10 plays wheeled at $10 each costs $100
*** do these longshot parlays at $5 each just in case there is an upset...BUT make them 4 way plays with 3 lowest lines out of the 5
Liberty with Yale with Wichita with Okla St. pays > +559
Liberty with Yale with Wichita with Tulsa
Liberty with Wichita with Okla St. with Tulsa
GM with UNCW with Wichita with Okla St pays > +620
GM with UNCW with Wichita with Tulsa
GM with UNCW with Okla St with Tulsa
GM with Yale with Wyoming with Okla St pays >+724
GM with Yale with Wyoming with Tulsa
GM with Wyoming with Okla St with Tulsa
All told cost of $145 for all parlays 
....not a bad risk to double your money most likely and a little more and have some fun
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Posted:
#811
There is a line I am watching to take this team with their spread because I feel that if their star player is cleared to play, this line will go up and there should not be any worry in my that they get back door covered.....
I will be taking the favorite ML in a parlay almost for certain, because I don't think the team they are playing matches up well with them especially guarding the 3 pt shot
This is interesting to know and what I uncovered in my research: - *** new this year***
New to March Madness in 2026: injury reports. Louisville must submit an initial report to the NCAA by 9 p.m. Wednesday and provide updates by 11:30 a.m. Thursday. Players will be designated as available (more than a 75% chance to play), questionable (up to a 75% chance to play) or out (will not play). The reports will be available on NCAA.com.
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Posted:
#813
Back to NCAAB tourney....
- UNC in tough vs VCU.....VCU is a better shooting team, defend better and can defend the 3pt which UNC has been using a lot lately to dagger some teams late
-UNC does not defend the 3 pt well and VCU is 46th best....
I already am on a +2.5 line ....only thing holding me back here is the UNC moxie lately since the DUKE game that they won in the first encounter, that said, VCU is on quite a roll...
VCU should be a nice TEASER builder team with +5 pts teased! I am picking them to upset UNC in my second bracket play
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Posted:
#816
My first set of Plays: -all were laid in first 48 hrs pretty much
Play #1 - TROY +13 x 2U
Play #2 TCU +2.5 x 1U/ win +115 x HALF U
Play #3 - Hofstra +11.5 x HALF U and separate > Play #4 UNDER 160.5 x HALF U
We don't care about line changes after the fact..... cap on intel and matchups and lay your price when you think its good otherwise you are just guessing and you guys know, that I bet on me and its not my style to guess....I only hit 50% or less when I do
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Posted:
#817
Play #4 - Siena - Duke Under 137 x HALF U
Play #5 - Duke -28 x HALF U
- Siena cannot hit the 3pt shot and are 352th
-they are decent rebounders (top 50) on defense and good stats vs 3pt and FG but obviously Duke will score at will
-Its not in Duke's nature to play fast and lots of short clock buckets UNLESS they are playing a hot scoring team (that is not Siena!)
-toughest team Siena played was Indiana and they only got 60 pts and no way will they get 60 pts here on Duke.....likely 46 - 55 at most
-will Duke score 82 or more? They could....but that likely means the number for Siena drops as they are terrible 3 pt shooters and the speed of Duke will ensure that remains that way
-Duke 90 -46 still goes under
My prediction is 83 - 52 final score
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Posted:
#820
Play #5 - Houston Over 137.5 x HALF U
- Sampson is gonna let Sharp and co stretch out and hit the 3pt and easy inside baskets
- Idaho with excellent 3 pt shooting and good offensive rebounding so I expect them to hit 60 and Houston over 75 ....how high will it go ? probably not too far over 140
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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