L2T Conference Betting Thread

Tomorrow soccer parlays: - best angles (no guessing - capped and covered)

Argentina:

*** Defensa vs C.Cordoba UNDER 1.5 << my play of the week for that league....

-4 games at home for Def = 3 goals scored

-C.Cordoba - 4 games on the road > 0 scored and 5 allowed or 1.25 per game allowed

Win and Over (split them)

Banfield (h)

Tucaman (h) - Win only

Rivadavia (h) - best bet win / Over good too

Huracan (h)

Brazil A League

Bahia (h) win only

England League 1

Wimbledon win only < winners of 3 in a row at home and Blackpool a terrible road team

UCL 

BODO - Sporting Over 2.5 and like Over 3.5 some too...both are high scoring teams, especially Bodo at home are epic scorers

Honestly, I don't know what to make of the other matches in UCL...some significant injuries > would rather not risking 'guessing' ....UCL can be tricky

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Posting some ideas because it appears that you guys are liking some parlays for some action.....

I DO NOT LIKE ANY GAMES TOMORROW....sheesh ....many of them can go either way, UNDER or Over so ...I just see one team that has to play with their hair on fire and win their game tomorrow and one more to assure they are in NCAAB tourney and that is TEXAS ....their opponent has won 1 game since Jan 17th

Texas is a bubble team and I will be parlaying them in my mixes with soccer tomorrow ....probably 2-3 way plays .....Day off for me tomorrow it appears

Squeaked another one out ....payback for missing the one loss by a HALF POINT!!

Play #5 IDAHO -EWU OVER .... too low in my opinion 148.5 x HALF U 

4 - 1  +3U night

NO GAMES selected for Wednesday.....just like TEXAS in parlays everywhere with my soccer suggestions in 2way and 3 way parlays

TIP: - if you want action.... almost every CONFERENCE FINAL has gone UNDER the number so if you see 141 or higher as a total, I would consider going that way

-last 2 days of finals = UNDER = 5 - 3 << none of those totals were 140 or higher except for 1 that went into OT

Enjoy the day!

Looking at all the FINALS today, I can see 2 out of 3 going UNDER....so I might try in my parlays to do a WHEEL:

Texas with 2 out of 3 Finals UNDER 

Texas with 2 out of 3 Finals UNDER < rotate who goes OVER

Texas with 2 out of 3 Finals UNDER < rotate who goes OVER

-bet one smaller > Texas with all 3 FINALS go UNDER 

*** hit one of these parlays, it more than covers the others laid.... 4 way parlay = +800 or more this way!!

This might be another way to approach your plays today....but don't go wild on it.... $50 lay x 3 and a $25 lay on all of them to go UNDER would cost $175

Return on one of them = $450+ for first 3 and $230 if they all go UNDER 

Profit could = $50-$275 

Didn't like today....

And Texas who I thought would be an easy winner to preserve a chance to solidify a berth is going to lose to a team that has WON 1 GAME in almost 2 months.......dropping about $125 in parlays today just chasing action.... and yes, it makes me feel like a degenerate even though I did not like the day and could not even commit to Texas covering 

The curse of the bettor, when you gut says be careful, it should mean DON'T BET TODAY!!

Thursday: 

Play #1 - Iowa St. -TTECH x 143 x 1U

- I don't buy that either team will be defensive and treat this Conference early round game as a focus this way

-both teams can score well in neutral courts....especially TTECH and they are good on the road for scoring.....and this is a revenge game for IWST who is hearing whispers that they don't even deserve to be a #2 seed (<<< I agree 100%) so I expect a frisky IWST which will only bring out the best in the shooters of TTECH!

-TTECH embarrassed IWST in their home building so expect a spicy game with lots of scoring....and TTECH did it without Toppin!

Play #2 - Auburn - Tennessee Under 148.5 x HALF U

- Tennessee were playing really well for 10 games and then in their last 4-5 games, they fell apart

-what worked for them? Structure and defense and they will get back to this vs a team that could surprise them and then they are left with even more questions among themselves which I feel this team has the potential to do some damage with the way they play

-Auburn shouldn't score more than 70 if motivated and Tennessee will not run up the score if playing defense

I will look at some more in the morning but these two plays stood out for me

This play should say OVER 143 

 To a winning start

to the day.

Been following along the last few days.

TBH, I didn't like yesterday and I went through all games today and see a lot of TRAP lines from Vegas....there is one game I am eyeing further that is totally a trap game on the TOTAL and spread but if I see the right movement, I am going to take a stab

Its dangerous the last two days in my opinion because now the strong teams come into play with Conference games and who knows what their motivation is ....look at the TTECH game right now for instance....wild swings from half to half in that one and I sense it so laid off

Climber teams that won't get an invite are getting tired from so many games but VEGAS is not giving much on TOTALS so I am laying off and just watching lines 

No point in chasing for the sake of chasing .... I have to love a play and have an edge 

Good call

We will find something... stay tuned and  if you continue to follow.... I see 2 game angles on TOTALS that are blossoming my way and now going to dig a little more to firm up my thesis....one might become a 2U play press

Ok....I am planting a flag on a TOTAL with some logic that I will lay out.

UNDER DUKE 149.5 x 2.5U 

-Foster out for Duke and shoots 40%+ from 3 pt

-Cayden Boozer expected to get significant minutes today and going forward and is a topnotch defender more than he is an offensive player

-Ngongba OUT as well.... Duke has some size on the bench and I can see them running into foul trouble and Scheyer deploying a 3 guard or 2 guard-small forward press later in the game and likely will force FSU to play long clocks on defense .....

-realize, Duke has gone UNDER every neutral court TOTAL that has been set and all over 145 and many above 150 ...except one match vs TTECH and its understandable it would go OVER vs them

-FSU does not have an offense like TTECH and in fact, they are  mid 250's rank for both FG and 3PT so Duke can control them if Scheyer focuses his team on defense and I believe he will ....preach system and help /rotating quickly 

-If I am wrong, it will be because Boozer goes off and one other player but what is the point of running up the score when you already have injury issues??? Defense is easier to play and not as taxing as offense on the body from a injury chance point of view ...if anything, you are less vulnerable due to stance with knee bend and flex position 

I have one other game I am considering going OVER for 1U or 1.5U.....

BOL!!

Play #4 today - Over 140.5 x 1U @1.85   - S.Utah and UTArlington

-UTArlington with a strong defense / excellent Offensive rebounding /decent FT ....they have gone UNDER a lot of 136 Totals in the past 7 games but their game vs S.UTAH closed at 143.5 and went far OVER it 

-a check of S.Utah > very good offense/decent FT shooting and poor defense ....all instances where I saw this early in Conference games, the dog really pushed their shot output and totals went OVER ....and defensive teams obliged and found a way to score easy buckets to stay ahead of good offense/weak defense teams...TOTALS went higher

If this number was going to run UNDER 140, I would have taken it for 2.5Units especially since they have had 5 days off in between their last game so both teams will have energy and S.UTAH will foul foul foul .....if down since this is a one and down

-UTArlington probably won't mind a more open game because they would need that for the semi and final to execute on their shooting and get a warmup game too.....but ask yourself why the spread is quite low considering their records?? That reinforces what I believe about an open game !

Let’s cash

@Last2thirst

Play #5 - Clemson-UNC Under 140.5 x HALF U

-they just played each other in a tough battle under this total and both teams favor the UNDER in neutral court games 

-since OT is possible, don't go nuts on it

Bah! 

A lot of atypical stuff happening.... I was due for a spank

@Last2thirst

 onto the next

Agreed  ... it's been a crapshoot in the Conference Tourneys with better teams wanting rest and preparation rather than chasing a CF title ..... what gets me is the lack of DEFENSE when I go for UNDERS and the lack of OFFENSE when I go for Overs these past few days.... Vegas hung some attractive lines but got fished into them 

Play #1 - Yale -4 x 1U

-they completely dominated Cornell the first time they played and last game they lost due to poor shooting....having a focus is what Yale needs as they are better on defense, better FT and as good of a shooting team as Cornell

Play #2 - I can see Cornell fouling a lot knowing they are great 3 pt shooters so they foul early and often for a chance to climb back in and win on last shot but Yale will hit a high % and win 

OVER 163 x HALF U 

Whether I decide to play more will come down to pure matchup situations and no guessing....might as well wait for the BIG DANCE 

- I can see an 86-80 type of win or perhaps higher total for Yale

Strong Lean to DAYTON +5.5  ....mulling and watching the line

-they are on a mission and I have noticed....their only chance to get to the dance in my opinion is knocking off St. Louis and possibly winning their Conference Final

-St.Louis is in guaranteed so, I definitely lean the motivation and the fact that a check of neutral court games by ST.LOUIS shows they are tight games

Also, Dayton's FT rank is twice as good and 75th ....they will work the inside to create foul trouble on ST.L bigs and reap the rewards