L2T Conference Betting Thread

One game focus tonight for me and a press on one team.....

Tenn-Martin were a powerhouse midseason and I don't know what has happened with their offense.....their defense is sublime, however we are at the stage where players/coaches are all familiar with each other on what is expected, where to be on the court and how to prepare against opponents.....my strong lean to Tennessee St stems around the fact they can produce offense and shot at the free flow line + play adequate to good defense enough to counter the best that UTM does..... 

Tenn St. -1.5 or -2 whatever .... I am 2.5 UNITS on them at both numbers.... 1.5 U earlier and 1U at -2 now that I have spent more time looking at this

Also: UNDER 137 x 1.5U

-UTM will fight for every inch of space in their end.....TENN St can shoot FTs well, UTM cannot so you can bet that UTM is all in on defensive positioning/help/focus/strategy of man/zone mixes in this one as a one and done....

I believe I will get one of those and likely both.... I am due to be smacked around with a surprise result so be careful

@Last2thirst

 let’s go

BOL!!

Trust you.

On them both.

Game is already ATYPICAL so I hope people did not press like me..... I am concerned that UTM is embracing a new approach here and this becomes a back and forth where neither side stops the other....

What is proving out in this UTM-TENN ST game....

1. When a strong defense (UTM) faces a good offense (TENN ST), who can score from the FT line well too....that is enough to win or have a chance so a small line is attractive

2. When weak offense (UTM) faces a decent defense (TENN ST).....chances are, that weak offense will struggle

Put the two together, and you can see why it was a waste of time to find more thn one play ....and I have seen this pattern in the regular season too....but now the one and done scenario really amplifies this

I was certain, Vegas had opened a door to a mistake line that I could not figure out but didn't overthink it

Tenn St. -1.5 or -2 .... I am 2.5 UNITS  on them at both numbers.... 1.5 U earlier and 1U at -2 

Also: UNDER 137 x 1.5U  

Congratulations on the win. Almost time to breakdown the brackets. 

100% Boro and I am working on my pts system!

-Teams that beat a Top 18 team on neutral court get +0.5 bonus and 2 pts

-Teams that beat a Top 18 team on the road get 0.25 bonus and 2 pts 

-Teams that beat 19-36th team on neutral court get +0.5 bonus and 1 pt

-Teams that beat 19-36th team on road court get 0.25 bonus and 1 pt

-Teams that beat 37th-66th team on neutral court get +0.5 bonus and 0.5 points

-Teams that beat 37th-66th team on road court get 0.25 bonus and 0.5 points

-Teams that beat TOP 18 teams at home = 2pts

-Teams that beat 19-36th teams at home = 1 pt

-Teams that beat 37-66th teams at home = 0.5 

*** and I do this at the last day or Feb or first week of March and start with Top 100 teams and as Conference teams get eliminated I only do the Conference winners after

I call the final  WIN POWER# to properly sift teams mojo for one and done games in NCAAB tourney   ....and next year I might do it within each DIVISION if this works out well to assist me in early Conference matches + using my spreadsheet results that are ongoing added each year

I have already found one strong/sneaky team that is a bubble team but have done some damage vs strong teams all year

Early Win Power Leaders (that I have done in between looking for daily betting angles)

Duke       21.5

Arizona    20.0

Kansas    16.5 *** << quite the resume and if rested/strong, elite 8 sleeper!

TTech      14.75

Florida    14.0

Illnois      12.75

IWST      12.5

TCU        10.5*** << very sneaky team and supposedly on bubble but shouldn't be!!

Virg.        9.5

Nebr.       8.5 < over rated for sure!

UCLA      7.75 

NCST      4.5 

Even my ratings that I do are not quite as good as only based on eye test and perception....this list gets down to WHO YOU BEAT and what SITUATION did you beat them in and that is EVERYTHING in my view.....a team like IOWA ST is more of a homer team and Kansas has that reputation too....but Kansas has stocked more road wins in tougher situations than Iowa St!!!

I will update my final list when complete 

Saturday: - going to look at game to game matchups and if I see a good edge, only HALF - 1U

-if I see a very strong edge like TENN ST last night, 2U or more

-game by game today until I cap the horse card around 4:30 pm roughly ....and then will look for some evening magic later in between races....having bet horses much in 3 wks and itching to jump into seeing how the younger 3 yr old horses are doing early on in the new season....they should be coming out of barns each week after Quali's

Play #1 - High Point -14 x HALF U

Play #2  Under 148.5 x 1 U

-this game is set on an appropriate line but in a one and done, High Point needs to be laser focused on their prize of winning the conference since I don't think they will get to NCAAB tourney otherwise despite a phenomenal record....and seeing what happened to Belmont in the same situation and resume, will have their coach preaching this before every game (DO NOT TAKE OPPONENTS LIGHTLY!!) 

-HP superior offense and FT shooting /much stronger defense 

-two matches totalling OVER 150.5 in first one and UNDER 150.5 by a lot in the 2nd match ..... laser focus on defense means this skews to the UNDER because UNC Ash are just not good on the FT line

Play #3 - Mercyhurst Under 134.5 x HALF U

-two good defenses here and they played OT in both games with one going over this total and one going under it and in both cases, the regulation was UNDER this number

-given the fact MH is at home and has a much better FT rating, and a better overall offense, I believe lightning will not strike a third time and they win scoring Under 70 pts for the win ...69 - 63 type of score at most and potentially 67 - 58 type of score or 65 - 59

-its not to MH's advantage to play an open game here! 

Play #4 - LouTech/Delaware Over 132 x 1U

-Delaware has good shooting stats and so-so defense, and playing at home with a 10-20 record....they have been playing a lot of games hitting 142 pts-155 Totals lately and have nothing to lose prepping for their Conference tourney and will need to score a lot in open games to surprise stronger defenses 

-Lou Tech tends to be a defensive beast at home mostly, and can be like that on the road but they too have been in a lot of games with totals over 132 lately 

-scratching my head on this TOTAL so I am going to play a strong bet on it

Play #5 - Arky-Missouri Under 162.5 x HALF U

-Darius A is out for Arky as their leading scorer  and I feel he is worth about 6-10 pts in scoring on the TOTAL ....it appears that Vegas adjusted that way too BUT, a check of Arky games vs middling Conference teams shows less urgency on offense and better accumen on defense

-Arkansas can play defense .... Missouri is ok but not great vs 3 pt so does Calipari risk setting up play calls for perimeter shots and losing the game without Acuff OR do they work the inside/outside game and mix some offensive sets that get the play to the bigs .....and this is what I think they do ..... so there will be less outside shooting and Missouri will play a grinding style on Arky  

-I think this total should not be going up so that is why I took the rising number in BET365

 parlay - ND ML with UNDER 142 pay +242 x HALF U 

-good shot on this one...as ND with the stronger offense /good defense facing a very good defense and weak offense 

-first game between them hit 132 with ND winning at home by 4 .....Vegas thinks B.C. has a shot to win but for me, their horrid 361st FT shooting will let them down and I know ND can shoot clutch when they sniff out a chance for a win

-calculated risk vs reward here 

I might just ease off game volume of plays for a bit and search for a whopper to press on from 2 pm onward now.....

Local university here. 

Have you run your numbers on Louisville by chance?

Play #6 - Butler +3.5 @ 1.95 x HALF U

-Butler dominates this series every year and they score a lot of points .....DePaul playing well and at 16 - 14 are in line for a NIT invite potentially

-Butler at 15 - 15 DOES NOT want to fall into an UNDER .500 record so they will be very motivated 

Not yet...I will get to in perhaps in the next couple of hours or later today if things go well....lots of good lines to tap I feel today so busy hacking my way through a busy Saturday and if I get early success, I will keep going after 2pm and limiting my time to work on the WIN POWER numbers

2pm: Play#7 Vermont -13 x HALF U

-this team is a beast year after year come Conference tourney time and crank up their defense.....its a rabid crowd in Burlington and I saw a game there during this time about 18 yrs ago when my wife and I took a trip to get away and had a blast in that city ....saw George Carlin comedy show also, downtown and it was magical ...he passed away later that year I think and I still remember that week in Burlington, Boston and Montreal for a couple of days....

-Burlington comes alive at this time of the year ga ga over basketball 

-Bryant cannot shoot well and their defense is not nearly as good as Vermont's

-Vermont can play on offense and rarely turn it over 

- I see this being covered late .....Vermont already beat them by over 20 at home

Still hunting for more but going to be quite selective

Play #8 - Cincy +2.5 x HALF U

-this game is going to be a humdinger.....

-Cincy won the home game by 12 ....TCU on a roll no doubt and beat TTECH last game who were missing a very key player ....but have a look at Cincy's last 5 games and how they are winning.....omg they scoring well against good teams and using their strong defense to shut down good offenses

-I like Cincy's defense and hunger right now to try to get a tourney pick and just think this will be a tight game at the very least if TCU delivers like they can on homecourt 

Trending 5 - 1 ATS/TOTALS/ 1 - 0 parlay in early plays but its tight .....who knows how it will end up in the 2nd half.....

2:30: Play #9 - NE/Drexel Over 139.5 x HALF U

-this play is on a fine line but my case that I will make leads me to believe this number is too low

-NE has only won 7 games because of a horrid defense...their offense is pretty good and lately they are having success in games jacking up a lot shots and higher TOTALS

-when these two teams played at DREXEL, the total ended up way over this

-NE will foul Drexel a lot because they are terrible on the line....and even if Drexel hits only half of them, NE gets their hands on the ball more to put up shots so this will force Drexel to open up a little and they can with a pretty good offense

....now add the fact that this is a one and done game !

3 - 3 Even in my first 6 plays but down -HALF U on a parlay.....last 3 games with good starts but like the earlier games, they can crap out so ....I just feel a little meh today and might just work on my brackets.....and then horses and will look later if anything grabs me

Play of the Night for me now: Alabama -7 x 2U  << I think 1U 'should' be played but I just want to take a shot at winning my usual 1.5-3 U per day that I have been doing most days in the last 10....

-I'll take a shot on a stronger offense and defense who is rounding into to form in their last 7 games or so and have been on the road for the last two and some home cooking and playing in front of the fans for the last time this season, THEY WILL PUT ON a show 

-this line should be higher and just have a strong feeling that Alabama will come out very strong vs an Auburn team who is not very good on the road at all and are not going to the NCAAB tourney

If I have the wrong read here and they come out flat, well.....it's Saturday and so it happens

Other games I like looking at them but have played enough today:

Mercer -1

Drake Over << should have mentioned this one this morning....the TOTAL has risen now 2-2.5 pts 

Duke UNDER if you can get 147 or higher ....revenge game and I have watched a lot of UNC lately and unless Caleb is playing, I don't think they will get much out of their offense vs Duke at home and motivated....just look at what DUKE does to their opponents vs top opponents at home .......just checked and Caleb Wilson is out still 

Strong Lean BYU ML or spread but thing its a parlay dream for ML ....with Toppin injured and a tough road schedule lately with lots of travel, its obvious to me that TTECH coach is mixing his bench and starters to have them ready....he know's he has a formidable team that can hang with anyone especially if healthy and BYU at home is very tough to overcome 

Strong Lean on Colorado +14.5 > I am pretty sure Zona won the BIG12 their last game as they were all wearing hats while coach was interviewed.....SO.....they have nothing to gain from flyer into a homecourt that is the highest point of elevation and creating a situation where someone gets injured....I figure they use their bench a lot tonight....they are a guaranteed #1 seed and have nothing to gain in this one

-Colorado can score and have a strong home court traditionally!!!

- ML play might be in order here for a small stab.... Colorado wins and they might steal a NCAAB berth with a good run through the BIG12 Conference tourney ....they already have some decent scalps.....NIT higher seed is possible which is what they would want to have some homecourt games