Posted:
#701
Love the breakdown of the games. Gl. 
L2T Conference Betting Thread
Posted:
#702
Parlay #2 today - Alabama ML 1.32 with BYU ML 1.66 x HALF U pays +119 .....only concern I have now, BYU's defending on the perimeter and TTECH can be deadly, otherwise I would press here
Parlay #3 - Alabama ML 1.32 with Colorado +14.5 @1.9 pays +150 x 1U ..... CONFIRMED: Zona won BIG12 on senior night, cut down the nets and have taken a few days off....they will be loose but not overly pressing to beat Colorado by 15
Parlay #4 - Alabama ML 1.32 with Colorado ML 9.50 paying +1154 x $20 << I'll take a stab!!
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Posted:
#703
Ok...booya .... 5 - 4 + HALF U ...should have been 6 - 3 if no OT in Arky-Mizzou game...shit
Dead even on all plays....got fruit hanging on the vine involving ALABAMA with every ticket and hopefully it doesn't hang me but they are competing for a better seed so I doubt it and final home game
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Posted:
#704
This is what I have left (5 - 4 on sides/totals +HALF U):
Play of the Night for me : Alabama -7 x 2U
Parlay #2 today - Alabama ML 1.32 with BYU ML 1.66 x HALF U pays +119 .....only concern I have now, BYU's defending on the perimeter and TTECH can be deadly, otherwise I would press here
Parlay #3 - Alabama ML 1.32 with Colorado +14.5 @1.9 pays +150 x 1U ..... CONFIRMED: Zona won BIG12 on senior night, cut down the nets and have taken a few days off....they will be loose but not overly pressing to beat Colorado by 15
Parlay #4 - Alabama ML 1.32 with Colorado ML 9.50 paying +1154 x $20 << I'll take a stab!!
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Posted:
#705
Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst:
This is what I have left (5 - 4 on sides/totals +HALF U): Play of the Night for me : Alabama -7 x 2U Parlay #2 today - Alabama ML 1.32 with BYU ML 1.66 x HALF U pays +119 .....only concern I have now, BYU's defending on the perimeter and TTECH can be deadly, otherwise I would press here Parlay #3 - Alabama ML 1.32 with Colorado +14.5 @1.9 pays +150 x 1U ..... CONFIRMED: Zona won BIG12 on senior night, cut down the nets and have taken a few days off....they will be loose but not overly pressing to beat Colorado by 15 Parlay #4 - Alabama ML 1.32 with Colorado ML 9.50 paying +1154 x $20 << I'll take a stab!!
This is what I have left (5 - 4 on sides/totals +HALF U): Play of the Night for me : Alabama -7 x 2U Parlay #2 today - Alabama ML 1.32 with BYU ML 1.66 x HALF U pays +119 .....only concern I have now, BYU's defending on the perimeter and TTECH can be deadly, otherwise I would press here Parlay #3 - Alabama ML 1.32 with Colorado +14.5 @1.9 pays +150 x 1U ..... CONFIRMED: Zona won BIG12 on senior night, cut down the nets and have taken a few days off....they will be loose but not overly pressing to beat Colorado by 15 Parlay #4 - Alabama ML 1.32 with Colorado ML 9.50 paying +1154 x $20 << I'll take a stab!!
Posted:
#709
Play of the Night for me : Alabama -7 x 2U 
Parlay #2 today - Alabama ML 1.32 
with BYU ML 1.66 x HALF U pays +119 ...LOSING
Parlay #3 - Alabama ML 1.32 with Colorado +14.5 
@1.9 pays +150 x 1U
Parlay #4 - Alabama ML 1.32 with Colorado ML 9.50 
UP BY 11 with 4 min left in half paying +1154 x $20
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Posted:
#711
25 Teams now complete in my WIN POWER list to assist me for NCAAB Tourney:
-some things to note
-BIG EAST is the only power conference that did not mix conferences as much (UCONN did a little more than the others)
so their numbers in my opinion are skewed and probably require imagining them as near double their score
-with that in mind, when I show the rank levels, it would probably be best to take other conferences as well and imagine them with points 1.5 x their total just so you don't religiously stick to the numbers and just assume a POWER CONF with a lot of interaction against good teams will alway beat a low loss/high win non-P5 team.....so its probably best to rank them separately and with SOS beside them and then a number of WINS - LOSSES and relative SOS ......
You will see what I mean when I am complete....after that, its up to you how you want to fill out your bracket, but I have been doing brackets for almost 45 yrs and doing something like this will help you for 1-2 rounds and after that...and even including the first couple of rounds, it really comes down to MATCHUP info and motivation as the other 60-75% of the equation of getting things right with some luck involved.
I do know picked as many correct ELITE 8 teams to get there is a must > hitting 7 out of 8 is ideal besides the obvious 8 out of 8 which rarely happens
Onto SUNDAY betting since we wear 2 hats in this thread now....
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Posted:
#712
Play #1 Sunday: UIC +3 x HALF U ..... I even like them moneyline if I can find some parlays to go with them but I got up late this morning with Time switch spring forward
- 9 - 7 vs top 4 teams in Conference Play >> N. Ill was 7 - 9
- this game will be super tight so taking the points is the smart side and it will be low scoring....UIC also with better FT rank by 100 ranks!
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Posted:
#713
Play #2 - Final: Queens vs Central Arkansas
- Queen's with a tough schedule and have a very strong offense that leads to high scoring games and their defense vulnerable, but have shown some ability to play defense vs tough opponents when required
-2 - 3 vs top teams
-superior shooting stats vs CARK but weaker defense
-CARK got blown away early vs upper level TOP 40 teams but by mid season could hang within 12 pts of SMU and Vandy
-CARK went 4 - 0 vs top teams and have had the easier path to this final game....they are primed for sure
CARK has the 'it' factor but Queens is the type of team that is tough to slay 3x in a row......I think this game has a high probability of going to OT ....and even if it doesn't, Queens will make sure this game flows to their style and with the better FT shooting considerably, if they are down, they will hack to try to gain possession back and gain that way ....
Over 155.5 x 1U
-one team will score 80 pts at least and the other might not, but they will be close enough to that number that it pushes this game over, if not OT sends this one way past the total
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Posted:
#714
2pm game notes:
-Navy has dominated Boston and get to play at home > Navy is 6th best defender vs 3 pt shot which Boston utilizes well but not against Navy's defense this year in losses by 5 and over 10 pts
-Boston defense is not the greatest and Navy offense is strong and they like to control tempo so can play fast or slow and make buckets which is frustrating for an opponent ....Navy with better FT shooting by 100 ranks+
***value here is NAVY ml in a parlay bundle*** @1.32 multiplier
No idea what will happen in the Drexel - Monmouth game...like both teams but they each went into their home buildings and blew away the home team so anything can happen between them....hard to read >> Monmouth with the much better offense and way better FT line shooting by almost 250 ranks...and adequate defense to stop Drexel's offense .
Sorry if this is coming late...been shut out of COVERS with stupid ff'n GATEWAY TIMEOUT that it does occasionally...
I was so frustrated with COVERS not working, I just completed an hour and a half walk....so now I am going to look at ahead. This post was what I was seeing at 1:15 pm
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Posted:
#715
Going to make 6 more plays and then shut it down: - all parlays
- I am probably going to be down -1.5 U on my first two plays so my thinking is, all goes well, the first play brings me back to even including the reverse play and the rest is gravy
Most Sure parlay play for me: - 4 way ML parlay pays +147 x 2.5U
Michigan ML x Merrimack ML x North Dak St. ML x Santa Clara ML
Backup - reverse play > switch Merrimack ML to Marist ML pays and include other 3 ML plays (same as above )
pays> +308 x 1U
Other Plays: -HALF U each
a. Under Michigan 152.5 @1.90 with Nebraska Under 136.5 @1.9 > pays +261
b. Michigan Over 152.5 with N.Dak St. ML with Merrimack ML > pays +245
^pays >
c. Michigan Under 152.5 with N.Dak St ML with Santa Clara ML with Merrimack ML > pays > +300
d. Iowa St +5.5 with Michigan ML with Santa Clara ML > pays > +318
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Posted:
#716
Luckily I did not play Navy in parlay bundles as they just lost by 1 pts....... and thankfully, because of COVERS not being able to access, I wasn't able to post my thoughts on that game keying NAVY ML..... bad advice based on what we know now.
1 - 1 on early sides/Totals + HALF U >> QUEENS -CARK went OVER (and tied as I likely said it could happen 
)
Now, I sweat out some parlay results and just work on my NCAAB tourney readiness the rest of the evening
Michigan game coming soon and gonna watch with some popcorn 
....will update parlay results later but otherwise, have a good night 
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Posted:
#717
Ok, time to settle some bets/accounting:
1-1 +HALF U on sides/totals today = +$50 profit (-$3-$5 juice on avg per HALF U on SIDES/TOTALS)
Exotics plays: (2 - 4 )
-$550 outlay > returns > +$617 + $173 = Profit +$240 (no juice)
Check of my past 9 days = +$2030 gain ....only 1 day with a -$50 loss
Account is healthy and ready to press here and there ....but frankly, I am up > 70% of my original bankroll starting stack on the season now and would love to get it to $5-6K profit by end of NCAAB tourneys to move over to MLB and save my stack for Horses/NCAAF next year and in a perfect world, pull out $5K in the fall to go into a horse account for partnerships on yearlings (this fund has $8K in it right now and once I get to $25K or more by 65 yrs old, I would pull some stock cash out to double it/make my move to get into a yearling buying consortium to own a piece of about 3-5 yearlings which usually require about $6-10K per for a 10-20% ownership stake in each horse depending on what we went after > maybe 1 stakes horse and some that were tough enough to endure 25 -30 weekly races a year by the time they were a 4 yr old).
I am not a high roller guys....just a nibbler who can bet all year round, pull cash out once a month for a nice dinner or three with the wife and let my retirement income/investments having me not worry about living and having some trips once in a while or do as I like which is where I am at in my life.
My bet seasons > #1 NCAAB/horses/soccer >#2 MLB/horses mainly >#3 NCAAF/horses .... parlays all year round with infusing flavour or the day with soccer, NHL, NFL or NBA whatever the season is ...those 4 sports in my view are the trickiest to bet regularly and I get more joy out of seeing young players develop in my 3 betting seasons and horses too
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Posted:
#722
I really like this UTRGV team out of Texas ....outstanding on both sides of the ball....cannot say that about Nichols but they will fight for points
Play #1 UTRGV -5.5 @1.95 x 2U ....these guys hung around Illinois,and Baylor in Non Conf and can score a lot if they choose to so I have no issue with Nichols shooting well....helps my OVER as well
Over 143.5 x 1U
GL
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Posted:
#723
Hunch Play: Santa Clara-StM Under 148.5 x HALF U
-both like the 3 pt shot but I think their defenses are both good and you can bet there will be a focus to try to get to the final because that would ensure a NCAAB tourney seat for both teams....still think STM gets in regardless and likely SC but they don't know that
- STM not as good on the road or neutral as home.... is my thinking
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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