L2T Conference Betting Thread

Florida St -1.5 X 1U

-impressive this month and they are playing for a high seed and chance to host some games in the NIT 

Results:

Play #1 Tonight > ULL/JMAD Over 135 x HALF U  

Play #2 - Stetson-EKY Over 155.5 x 1U  

Play #3 - Indiana Over 138.5 x HALF U  

Detroit -2 x 2U      JSN riding shotgun!

OVER 151.5 x 1U   

3 - 2 +2U .... 1 GAME still to come with FSU...guaranteed winning night and that is all I care about ....not feeding my ego with endless picks. I am a horse guy, so you learn to pick up your winnings and get ready for the NEXT ONE!

If you're a horse guy you know that it all goes into vet bills anyways, or in CBB's case, juice. Is juice the vet bills of the college basketball world, let's discuss. ha  Good job today brother.

@Last2thirst

 nice day sir! 

Ahhh... good discussion topic if we have it. 

Horses and sports are similar in that they you look for the best situation + form  for a given moment ...betting wise. And the 3 best vehicles to bet and make money are:

#1 Doubles

#2 Pick5 and occasional Pick 4 but never Pick 3 or Pick6 for MAKING money 

#3 Exactors 

Supers once in a while but rare do you use them ....if your exactor looks it could pay and you love your KEY in the exactor, wheel your longshot/medium shot 2nd place winner for 3rd and 4th on a Superfecta but only if you have to pay 20-60c for a ticket 

Now....concerning juice, I use British offshore and biggest handle with most variety > BET365 and most of the time, I am only paying out .10 juice on a 1.90 bet !...... capping to a rate close to 60% is meh worrying about juice

Would love to hear your thoughts reciprocated 

Well the only sport I've ever won at myself is pro football, so other than that if I'm betting, I'm following fine people like yourself and hope you hit 60-65 percent to try and shoot for a small profit, and that's if I can not sabotage myself by chasing/placing dumb 2nd half bets.

With horse racing, either owning or betting, I've almost never won. Betting across the board is unsustainable long-term so really the only way to really win are pick 4's, pick 5's, etc. I actually called in a favor to my bookie to completely take off horse racing from my account bc I'd lose so much, that was mid-last year. I stay off of TVG.com for betting too bc I get 30 percent of my losses back with no makeup through my bookie (again I lose a lot bc for a bookie to offer that, he's gotta know it's going to be profitable for him).

The crazy thing I found with horse ownership was: I had a horse run 2nd 3/4 times in a row, and I still barely made money those two months, now that's insane. There are so many horses that rarely win, if ever, and just know those owners are absolutely losing their asses on a monthly basis, and they're just hoping to stumble upon a horse that can rattle off a few wins in a row so it'll pay for 5/6 of their losers in their stable.

So imo the best sport for actually winning is NFL, it's the most predicable, especially earlier in the season as the last 2/3 weeks of the regular season is a fool's errand. 

Totally agree with betting across the board and only take the occasional favorite ....not more than 2 a night if you want to make money or prevent yourself from betting TOO big ....better to bet exotics with medium to longshots and use 1 KEY in a pick 5 or Pick 4 and always a wheel in a SUPER FECTA, otherwise, you are just padding their books trying to catch 'a thrill'

Pro football is quite tough ....but in a way, its not if that is what you always did. You learn which angles to press on so kudos to you on that success JSN

Horse ownership will be 'new' to me soon....I actually own a stable of horses I trust when I see signs of coming around or to use in an exactor so I treat them like an ownership in my betting stable ....and all of them are RARELY ever a favorite

Hey Jose, 

I am Canadian and we don't have titles like the British .....and those that know me, well.....you know the side of Clint Eastwood that is brutal and likes to fight or take care of business? That was me into my 30's and could be nasty competitive person in all aspects but I appreciate the sir connotation now as I am definitely more mature and the antithesis of that period ....

I love how you do that, honestly but when we go to MLB threads, man, don't do that haha....that is my ultimate love playing baseball and that is because its a raw and honest sport that has dirt on it and titles mean nothing....

Cheers bro 

Thursday:

-Vegas looks tight on these early games but I think I have found a couple that are tipping me to take a stab at them

Play #1 - Bucknell +15.5 x HALF U

-I absolutely love how Navy plays on both ends of the court.....#6 vs 3 pt shooting and strong offensive stats under #100 ranking for shooting

-this is a down year for Bucknell but they jack up a lot of 3 pt shots and their defense vs 3 pt shots is 45th which excellent ....their offensive stats are not the greatest for shooting BUT .....they had a very hard NON -CONFERENCE schedule and went up against some strong offensive teams with much higher final totals than 122 ...many in the 140's

-also, they went 2 - 8 in NON CONF and then 8 - 14 in CONF play so they can be competitive 

-Navy has never had a line this high except for a few games against far weaker teams than Bucknell

- I think they just might squeak under this number in the end with Navy at home not really having to feel the pressure to advance to the next round, but Bucknell will have be taking a shot at surprising in their final game of the season 

Play #2 - Over Tenn Martin 122 x 1U

-I expect with a one and done game, there will be more times spent on the FT line than usual and UTENN is good with offensive rebounds so not only will they get there more, their opponent 

-EIU had a tough Non Conf schedule if you read between the lines ....and went 2 - 8 so their record after was 11 - 11 in Conf play so this will not be a laydown for UTM who have been inconsistent their last 6 games and I highly doubt they all of a sudden become a lockdown team with their good defense

- you cannot go through your conference bracket this way....you have to convert points in flow and in your offense sets with clock

Bucknell was the number one seed last year and got upset. Maybe added motivation to try and rectify wrongs? lol

Play #3 - Oral Rob-NDST Over 144.5 x HALF U

-price is right on a one and done...NDST first game and very powerful offense and occasionally, they like to play an open flow game which Oral Roberts will try to turn it into as their only chance to slay them because their defense is not good but their offense has some bright spots here and there

-spread looks about right but I would not be surprised this is a blowout like 88 - 70 ..... I see more like a game 80 - 68 roughly 

Looking at this Michigan-Iowa game..... Iowa is a pure shooting team on offense...very poor offensive rebounding and that gets even worse vs the size of Michigan with the size they have active around the bucket

- Iowa defensive stats are not really the cat's meow but somehow they keep the score down to 22nd rank in NCAAB so I can see the following happening. Cason is out and Michigan coach will want to be a little leerie of burning out his guards or point guard getting injured slashing to the hoop so I can see a lot of inside ball happening around the bucket with guards feeding forwards so this tends to lead to lower scores  ....I also see Iowa having trouble scoring if they cannot shoot well and Michigan has  strong perimeter defense where they mix some bigs onto the guards occasionally to combat outside shooting....Iowa will have no choice as they are not great finishers around the bucket 

Prediction... Iowa scores 59 - 66 .... and Michigan scores 72-77 pts  >> UNDER 147.5 (was 145 and I liked it 2 hrs ago) is my flag that I will probably play in-game on the TOTAL if I see how Michigan coach deploys his bench and offensive sets 

- its a meaningless game for Michigan and meaningful for Iowa so I caution on the spread ..... but TOTAL seems to be the way to go with a Michigan win by 4-12 pts but it could tip toward either way on spread

-reason why I say this is better to play in game.....Michigan is explosive on offense and like to prove it on a home team if they are shooting well also

I know!!

How far have they fallen on their rebuild? Great post and thanks for that reminder 

@Last2thirst

 Haha all good man. I’m a youngin so I just try to show respect to the vets that have been doing this a long time. can’t wait for mlb… BOL today.

Man did you see that Flor St beat? They were up 20 in 2nd half and up 10 with about 4-5 minutes left, then up 4 with 5 seconds left and the dude hit a running 3-pointer with two defenders all over him and they put 1.4 seconds on the clock, dude throws it in long and the defender fouls the guy going up for the ball  but they don't call  it and they end up winning by 1. That 1/2 point was an expensive one for me. haha

Onto today!

Juice I get it but we are on the same level my man! Cheers bro

Did not see and was wondering about why the score got so tight....it happens

ok...I got UNDER 145.5 x 1U on Michigan after 3 minutes+ 

2- 0  +1.5 ....working on 3-0 and 4-0 ....got a good shot 

Won't lose money and keep some peeps happy

BOL brother!! 

Thanks man, tailed that Eastern Illinois under ... your reasoning just made too much sense!!! 

Ok, cool ... 3 - 1 + 2U ....just make money most nights is the goal

Cash!!!

Awesome, but you meant OVER right? That's what I did ...

You go OVER early in the right situations....first couple of games and then you tail off and look for UNDERS come the semi and finals...sometimes Quarters in big conferences

[Quote: Originally Posted by FelixFermin21]Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst: ok...I got UNDER 145.5 x 1U on Michigan after 3 minutes+ Cash!!!  << My peeps!