Germany might have sealed top spot in Group E, but Ecuador need a win to advance in the World Cup bracket, which really opens up this June 25 game.
With Germany considering rotation to rest players, and Ecuador yet to score from open play, my Germany vs. Ecuador predictions expect the game to finish with Under 2.5 goals at a fair price in the World Cup odds.
Read on for my World Cup picks for Thursday afternoon.
Who will win Germany vs Ecuador: Germany (-112)
The Germans have already locked up first place in the group, which makes this game trickier to predict with a risk of Julian Nagelsmann benching starters.
I think when it comes to kickoff, we’re likely to see a fairly similar starting lineup to the previous game, with a couple of exceptions. The idea behind resting players holds some weight, but keeping momentum going is key here.
This German team isn't as great as years past, but they still have goals in their lineup and should be able to get the job done against an Ecuador team that have been a disappointment.
Ecuador’s defense is superb, but they lack any creativity in midfield, with 36-year old Enner Valencia their main target when they go forward. They dominated against Curacao and had 26 shots (15 on target) but these weren’t high-value chances.
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TOp pick
Germany vs Ecuador Over/Under pick: Under 2.5 (-120)
Ecuador are yet to score in this World Cup, and Germany come into this with an xG (expected goals) of just 2.05 through the first two games, despite scoring nine goals. This makes the Under a serious value proposition, with the market pricing the scoreboard, not the actual chance creation.
The Ecuadorians need to win this, and might find it easier to get in behind Germany than the low-block of Curacao, but they lack the quality and passing range to really test Manuel Neuer, who is expected to start in goal again for Germany.
Moises Caicedo sits deep and screens the backline, limiting the available space to attack the central defenders. The longer he does that, the more difficult it is for Germany to score, and they need to rely on their attackers to be at their most dynamic.
The German attack still doesn’t look as coherent as it has previously, with the players looking like they need more practice together.
With Deniz Undav already on three goals, there are calls to get him into the starting lineup, but at the expense of who? I suspect Nagelsmann tries to give his preferred starters one more chance to build momentum.
Germany vs Ecuador projected lineup
Germany (4-2-3-1): Neuer; Kimmich, Tah, Rüdiger, Raum; Goretzka, Groß; Wirtz, Musiala, Sané; Havertz.
Ecuador (4-3-3): Galíndez; Preciado, Torres, Pacho, Estupiñán; Franco, Caicedo, Páez; Plata, Valencia, Angulo.
Germany vs Ecuador injuries
Germany: None.
Ecuador: None.
Germany vs Ecuador weather
Temperatures in the low 80s, minimal winds and risk of precipitation.
Germany vs Ecuador odds
| Germany | Ecuador | |
|---|---|---|
| -113 | Moneyline | +285 |
| +355 | Draw | +355 |
| Over 2.5 (-117) | Total | Under 2.5 (+113) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Germany vs Ecuador
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey |
| Date | Thursday, June 25, 2026 |
| Time | 4 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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