5 - 2on Double Ups/Correlative Plays +4.5 U ... waited on that Hawaii play all day....was a coinflip on whether I was taking -7.5 or UNDER but as the day went on and further look, I decided 2U Under was best especially when the 149 number came up....it wasn't even close! Save a bleeding Saturday again. If I don't piss around with TEASERS, I make money today
-$125 (0-5 $25 plays /Key lost in second set of plays)
-$75 (back up plays to cover 1st set of Teasers)
-$60 (only 2 of 5 for 1st set of Teasers)
-$32 (only 2 of 5 Teasers - late plays)
Total = -$292 loss (3 way teasers are not easy)
Hunch players must find this hard unless they are lucky? Some guys are great at matchup analysis but because shooters 2nd best - 7th best on a team are so fickle at times, NCAAB is more or less a crapshoot or selecting the best situations or doing data analysis like I do...
I still want to nail a formula to get more ML upsets...once I figure it out beside the system I have, it will be very lucrative
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Today:
5 - 2on Double Ups/Correlative Plays +4.5 U ... waited on that Hawaii play all day....was a coinflip on whether I was taking -7.5 or UNDER but as the day went on and further look, I decided 2U Under was best especially when the 149 number came up....it wasn't even close! Save a bleeding Saturday again. If I don't piss around with TEASERS, I make money today
-$125 (0-5 $25 plays /Key lost in second set of plays)
-$75 (back up plays to cover 1st set of Teasers)
-$60 (only 2 of 5 for 1st set of Teasers)
-$32 (only 2 of 5 Teasers - late plays)
Total = -$292 loss (3 way teasers are not easy)
Hunch players must find this hard unless they are lucky? Some guys are great at matchup analysis but because shooters 2nd best - 7th best on a team are so fickle at times, NCAAB is more or less a crapshoot or selecting the best situations or doing data analysis like I do...
I still want to nail a formula to get more ML upsets...once I figure it out beside the system I have, it will be very lucrative
Play #1 - decent correlation for rank groups /strong spread correlation
USC -3.5 x HALF U
-Mazara is hurt and won't play for USC but he only contributed 20 min and 7 pts in a win over Indiana's homecourt which is super impressive
-this team started the season hot...hit a meh period and the east coast trip is been very successful so far....3rd game win in a row likely and hopefully with a cover
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Sunday:
Play #1 - decent correlation for rank groups /strong spread correlation
USC -3.5 x HALF U
-Mazara is hurt and won't play for USC but he only contributed 20 min and 7 pts in a win over Indiana's homecourt which is super impressive
-this team started the season hot...hit a meh period and the east coast trip is been very successful so far....3rd game win in a row likely and hopefully with a cover
- I don't think WVU matches up well vs this hot shooting team inside and outside....yes WVU has a strong defense but look what happens when they step up and play a Top 10 team like Houston?
-Texas Tech can handle good defense teams ....look at their game vs Duke/Houston ...and punch back!
-The total is rising because WVU will have to score more > 65 or more to have a chance and I do not see limits on Texas Tech to get 68 - 70 or more
-its a tight line but Correlation on rank groups is pretty good and the spread results with this number for TOP 20 teams is strong and make no mistake about it, TTECH is under the gun for position of a 3 or 4 seed now and they have to take care of business
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Play #2 - Texas Tech -4 x HALF U
- I don't think WVU matches up well vs this hot shooting team inside and outside....yes WVU has a strong defense but look what happens when they step up and play a Top 10 team like Houston?
-Texas Tech can handle good defense teams ....look at their game vs Duke/Houston ...and punch back!
-The total is rising because WVU will have to score more > 65 or more to have a chance and I do not see limits on Texas Tech to get 68 - 70 or more
-its a tight line but Correlation on rank groups is pretty good and the spread results with this number for TOP 20 teams is strong and make no mistake about it, TTECH is under the gun for position of a 3 or 4 seed now and they have to take care of business
- Michigan will have to go inside to make outside effective as the Buckeyes are damn good defense on the perimeter....no chance Michigan scores over 85 in my opinion ...... look at how OSU plays the top teams and the type of game they like....inside outside game with utilization of clock but THEY CAN PLAY AN UPTEMPO GAME ....and they shouldn't knowing Michigan is deadly in transition and open outside shooting so I expect them to get back on defense and not all collapse to the bucket on offense
Predicted score > 82 - 74 Michigan ....but I can also see OSU losing big if they are not finishing around the bucket as Michigan is a big team with very active rebounders and hands in the lane
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Play #3 - Michigan - Ohio St UNDER 160.5 x 2U
- I am expecting a rockfight inside!
- Michigan will have to go inside to make outside effective as the Buckeyes are damn good defense on the perimeter....no chance Michigan scores over 85 in my opinion ...... look at how OSU plays the top teams and the type of game they like....inside outside game with utilization of clock but THEY CAN PLAY AN UPTEMPO GAME ....and they shouldn't knowing Michigan is deadly in transition and open outside shooting so I expect them to get back on defense and not all collapse to the bucket on offense
Predicted score > 82 - 74 Michigan ....but I can also see OSU losing big if they are not finishing around the bucket as Michigan is a big team with very active rebounders and hands in the lane
Baseball starting up soon.... Jays - Dodgers 2.0 this year again.... Jays might be BETTER this year.....pitching I think will be and watch out for Francis if he makes it as a 5th starter ......the whole team benefitted from Bassitt and Scherzer showing them the way to pitch as a starter and as an effective reliever (in Bassitts case in the post season) and this will have ripple effects throught the pitching staff....as well as compete desire
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Quote Originally Posted by Fuse:
GL this week
Thanks Fuse How ya doin?
Baseball starting up soon.... Jays - Dodgers 2.0 this year again.... Jays might be BETTER this year.....pitching I think will be and watch out for Francis if he makes it as a 5th starter ......the whole team benefitted from Bassitt and Scherzer showing them the way to pitch as a starter and as an effective reliever (in Bassitts case in the post season) and this will have ripple effects throught the pitching staff....as well as compete desire
Name me an AL team that can do what the Jays do with their lineup and more (forget about outslugging the Jays if you cannot play defense vs their incredible bat control and craftiness/clutchness)??? Jays are a year older into prime for many of them, picked up a player who will easily and most likely duplicate or improve on Bo Bichette in Okamoto which is saying something.... but its the improvements in the pitching that I look forward to
"Kazuma Okamoto is an elite, power-hitting infielder from the NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball) who signed with the Toronto Blue Jays in 2026. Renowned for consistent 30+ home run power (41 in 2023), he combines a high 90% in-zone contact rate with a low 11.3% strikeout rate. As a multiple-time All-Star, he is expected to provide substantial, reliable offense. "
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Jays - Mets or Jays - Dodgers World Series!
Name me an AL team that can do what the Jays do with their lineup and more (forget about outslugging the Jays if you cannot play defense vs their incredible bat control and craftiness/clutchness)??? Jays are a year older into prime for many of them, picked up a player who will easily and most likely duplicate or improve on Bo Bichette in Okamoto which is saying something.... but its the improvements in the pitching that I look forward to
"Kazuma Okamoto is an elite, power-hitting infielder from the NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball) who signed with the Toronto Blue Jays in 2026. Renowned for consistent 30+ home run power (41 in 2023), he combines a high 90% in-zone contact rate with a low 11.3% strikeout rate. As a multiple-time All-Star, he is expected to provide substantial, reliable offense. "
-Iowa's defense travels well and seeing their icon at centre court will remind them of the style of play they incorporate at home which is a hardnosed defense giving little in the middle and asking you to shoot your way to a win on their court.....NW is not the team to do this
-this play comes down to how many pts I think NW can score > I give them 65 TOPs...and more likely will score 55
-Iowa is comfortable winning at home scoring 65-74 pts ....max NW with max IOWA score still goes under
Michigan game is starting to go like the rock fight I expected.....hoping it continues because that is MY DAY ....lose and I lose on the day but hopefully IOWA can claw back some cash for me or elevate my earnings today
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Play #4 - Iowa UNDER 139.5 x 1U
-Iowa's defense travels well and seeing their icon at centre court will remind them of the style of play they incorporate at home which is a hardnosed defense giving little in the middle and asking you to shoot your way to a win on their court.....NW is not the team to do this
-this play comes down to how many pts I think NW can score > I give them 65 TOPs...and more likely will score 55
-Iowa is comfortable winning at home scoring 65-74 pts ....max NW with max IOWA score still goes under
Michigan game is starting to go like the rock fight I expected.....hoping it continues because that is MY DAY ....lose and I lose on the day but hopefully IOWA can claw back some cash for me or elevate my earnings today
Guaranteed a winning day....how good will be determined....it could pay for my exotic bets yesterday which put me behind....my sides and TOTALS were a winning day otherwise
Seattle wins the Super Bowl by 11 pts ......or 6 pts ....I see a score of 24 -13 OR 31 - 25 in a more open game
- just look at the teams that the PATRIOTS played all season...Steelers and Bills were their toughest competition and only 1 game each with them.....Seahawks every other week played a Top 10 team
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Sunday:
Play #1 - USC -3.5 x HALF U
Play #2 - Texas Tech -4 x HALF U
Play #3 - Michigan - Ohio St UNDER 160.5 x 2U
Play #4 - Iowa UNDER 139.5 x 1U TBD
Guaranteed a winning day....how good will be determined....it could pay for my exotic bets yesterday which put me behind....my sides and TOTALS were a winning day otherwise
Seattle wins the Super Bowl by 11 pts ......or 6 pts ....I see a score of 24 -13 OR 31 - 25 in a more open game
- just look at the teams that the PATRIOTS played all season...Steelers and Bills were their toughest competition and only 1 game each with them.....Seahawks every other week played a Top 10 team
What a game and poker during the second half and to past midnight...I was raking some big hands and then leaked some profits but still came out +$375 for the night
Sorry about no plays....had to go to work and then endure absolute bone chilling cold to get some errands done so will be back at it tomorrow.
Hope you are doing well today
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
What a game and poker during the second half and to past midnight...I was raking some big hands and then leaked some profits but still came out +$375 for the night
Sorry about no plays....had to go to work and then endure absolute bone chilling cold to get some errands done so will be back at it tomorrow.
I have watched a ton of basketaball, I have been intimate with daily results and intimate with points per game, rivalries, matchups and up and downs of teams ...whether at home or the road.
I believe I am now prepared to offer my 10 best teams in NCAAB. I don't look at rank lists in college football or basketball...I form my opinions with the eyestest and daily scope of team data and results/matchups.
I have said for all who would hear, who is my #1 team based on their dominance and how they dominate other good teams...and I alluded to one team who is going to be a dark horse few pundits are discussing, and they are putting it to the #1 team tonight!
Here we go:
#1 Michigan
#2 Duke
#3 UCONN
#4 Illinois
#5 Arizona
#6 Florida
#7 Kansas
#8 Gonzaga
#9 Houston
#10 St.John's tie
#10 Nebraska tie
Also considered: Virginia, Purdue, Iowa St. Michigan St.
Darkhorses: Santa Clara , NC State, Villanova, Georgia, Utah St
Lastly, I will post the best scalps of Top 30 teams with the following scoring system:
Road win vs Top 30 = +2.0
Neutral Court win vs Top 30 = +1.5
Home Court win vs Top 30 = +1.0
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
I have watched a ton of basketaball, I have been intimate with daily results and intimate with points per game, rivalries, matchups and up and downs of teams ...whether at home or the road.
I believe I am now prepared to offer my 10 best teams in NCAAB. I don't look at rank lists in college football or basketball...I form my opinions with the eyestest and daily scope of team data and results/matchups.
I have said for all who would hear, who is my #1 team based on their dominance and how they dominate other good teams...and I alluded to one team who is going to be a dark horse few pundits are discussing, and they are putting it to the #1 team tonight!
Here we go:
#1 Michigan
#2 Duke
#3 UCONN
#4 Illinois
#5 Arizona
#6 Florida
#7 Kansas
#8 Gonzaga
#9 Houston
#10 St.John's tie
#10 Nebraska tie
Also considered: Virginia, Purdue, Iowa St. Michigan St.
Darkhorses: Santa Clara , NC State, Villanova, Georgia, Utah St
I will lay out my data when ready (it will take me a few weeks besides doing some other consulting in the mineral industry that I do for a big conference in one month...its like the Oscars of the mineral industry when everyone around the world appears in Toronto) .... this is the fun time of the year....betting and getting ready for NCAAB tourney games ....rule #1, you must be ready with all analysis data you need for matchups and not rely on other touts to tell you what you SHOULD LIKE... I know this from experience which is why I do my own data and I want it to be better prepared than even last year. I go into at least 4-5 paid bracket tourneys with point totals for rounds accumulating and upsets matter more than faves winning
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
I will lay out my data when ready (it will take me a few weeks besides doing some other consulting in the mineral industry that I do for a big conference in one month...its like the Oscars of the mineral industry when everyone around the world appears in Toronto) .... this is the fun time of the year....betting and getting ready for NCAAB tourney games ....rule #1, you must be ready with all analysis data you need for matchups and not rely on other touts to tell you what you SHOULD LIKE... I know this from experience which is why I do my own data and I want it to be better prepared than even last year. I go into at least 4-5 paid bracket tourneys with point totals for rounds accumulating and upsets matter more than faves winning
- this team has played 5 out of its last 6 games vs very tough teams
-Baylor is not
-In fact, Baylor has lost their last 4 game against tough BIG 12 opponents and by 7 or more pts......
-BYU is ready to break out...they have lost 4 of 5 and they are in most games against these two teams until the 4th Q...I think they are tired of losing and I bet Dybantsas takes over the game himself or finds the open cutter constantly ...he is such a good passer and athlete!
-Baylor needs a statement win to get into the NCAAB tourney in my opinion...I see them only as a bubble team now...too many good BIG12 teams and they cannot beat em so expect a high level of motivation for both teams and a pissed off BYU team to deliver when I know Baylor has trouble doing so
Top 20 teams are 35 - 23 with a spread of -3 to -5.5 over two seasons
-these rank groups correlation to a positive +5 games over .500 for the Top 20 team winning ATS
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Play #4 - BYU -3 x 2U
- this team has played 5 out of its last 6 games vs very tough teams
-Baylor is not
-In fact, Baylor has lost their last 4 game against tough BIG 12 opponents and by 7 or more pts......
-BYU is ready to break out...they have lost 4 of 5 and they are in most games against these two teams until the 4th Q...I think they are tired of losing and I bet Dybantsas takes over the game himself or finds the open cutter constantly ...he is such a good passer and athlete!
-Baylor needs a statement win to get into the NCAAB tourney in my opinion...I see them only as a bubble team now...too many good BIG12 teams and they cannot beat em so expect a high level of motivation for both teams and a pissed off BYU team to deliver when I know Baylor has trouble doing so
Top 20 teams are 35 - 23 with a spread of -3 to -5.5 over two seasons
-these rank groups correlation to a positive +5 games over .500 for the Top 20 team winning ATS
Play #5 - UNDER 156.5 Miami/UNC x??? watching this total as it was 157.5 about 30 min ago....shit, missed it but it may come back later on BET365 which can gyrate a lot
-both teams have almost the exact pts for /against
-both teams like to score around the hoop and both teams rebound well on both ends.....which means that there could be some offensive chances increasing around the bucket ....BUT....both teams are terrible on the line
I see a gritty kind of game happening with one team scoring just around 78 - 82 and the other around 75 pts
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Play #5 - UNDER 156.5 Miami/UNC x??? watching this total as it was 157.5 about 30 min ago....shit, missed it but it may come back later on BET365 which can gyrate a lot
-both teams have almost the exact pts for /against
-both teams like to score around the hoop and both teams rebound well on both ends.....which means that there could be some offensive chances increasing around the bucket ....BUT....both teams are terrible on the line
I see a gritty kind of game happening with one team scoring just around 78 - 82 and the other around 75 pts
If you are a TEASER guy....I think its safe to tease VANDY +5 more points and cover...... this spread is strong for teams ranked 21-40 being favorite and playing a team in the Top 20......but if you look at Auburn's numbers, they pale in comparison in all levels vs Vandy and so I notice Auburn does not beat good teams by much when they do....
I can't bet this one with teams 21 - 40 being only 7 - 10 ATS vs teams in the Top 20 over the past two seasons....in Conference play....the spread may sag GO!!....but I see caution in taking the favorite here
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
If you are a TEASER guy....I think its safe to tease VANDY +5 more points and cover...... this spread is strong for teams ranked 21-40 being favorite and playing a team in the Top 20......but if you look at Auburn's numbers, they pale in comparison in all levels vs Vandy and so I notice Auburn does not beat good teams by much when they do....
I can't bet this one with teams 21 - 40 being only 7 - 10 ATS vs teams in the Top 20 over the past two seasons....in Conference play....the spread may sag GO!!....but I see caution in taking the favorite here
-Richmond in a free fall and GMASON likes to play them hard nosed ....check out past matchup scores
-GMASON is playing well and do not have to get into a basket for basket contest on the road and vs this team ...they can take their time and set up their offense without compromising their defense readiness
HALF U > GMASON -3 ....double positive correlation that is strong on spread and +3 games over .500 for ATS
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Play #5 - UNDER 140 x 1.5U > G. Mason/Richmond
-Richmond in a free fall and GMASON likes to play them hard nosed ....check out past matchup scores
-GMASON is playing well and do not have to get into a basket for basket contest on the road and vs this team ...they can take their time and set up their offense without compromising their defense readiness
HALF U > GMASON -3 ....double positive correlation that is strong on spread and +3 games over .500 for ATS
Wisconsin - Illinois Over - should be an open game like their past matches and this is a regional rivalry with Wisky needing to just fire shots away to stay in this and perhaps pull off a shocker
Play #6 - Fresno St +20.5 x HALF U
-yes Utah St always beats them but not to a pulp
- this is a strong double negative correlation play or FADE the favorite
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Wisconsin - Illinois Over - should be an open game like their past matches and this is a regional rivalry with Wisky needing to just fire shots away to stay in this and perhaps pull off a shocker
Play #6 - Fresno St +20.5 x HALF U
-yes Utah St always beats them but not to a pulp
- this is a strong double negative correlation play or FADE the favorite
Play #7 Utah +16.5 x 1U -they have only lost by 19 to Arizona at home and by 5 to BYU - Houston should win by -10 to -13 but not this big number to cover.....not on a home court and at elevation!
Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst:
Play #7 Utah +16.5 x 1U -they have only lost by 19 to Arizona at home and by 5 to BYU - Houston should win by -10 to -13 but not this big number to cover.....not on a home court and at elevation!
Changes to my Top 10 and on deck list after last night.....adjustments are being made slowly during a deep dive and charting of who beat whom. Most impressive win was Michigan @Gonzaga wipeout by 40 pts!
TOP 4 Especially have: > Best Size, Talent, Full court Cohesion mix
Changes to my Top 10 and on deck list after last night.....adjustments are being made slowly during a deep dive and charting of who beat whom. Most impressive win was Michigan @Gonzaga wipeout by 40 pts!
TOP 4 Especially have: > Best Size, Talent, Full court Cohesion mix
How ya doin?
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