L2T Conference Betting Thread

1PM FADE GAME idea - I am using TEASER but it might be good ML or + pts

SOUTH CAROLINA +3.5

-they match up well, shoot the FT in the TOP 10 and play well on their home court > this is a DOUBLE FADE correlation in my spreadsheet 

TEASER FLIGHT (5pt) #2:

Key: S.Carolina +8.5 with TCU -5 (K-st seems decimated for injuries with a long losing streak over 8 games with 1 home win) with:

1. Bowling Green +7.5 < not a Conf game!

2. Marshall +7.5 < not a Conf. game! (this might turn into Mia Ohio first loss because they don't know opponent!)

3. Omaha +14.5 - DOUBLE FADE 

4. St Peters +6.5 - DOUBLE FADE 

5. S.DAKOTA +15.5 << they love being underdogs and playing in-state rival so DOUBLE MOTIVATION!!!

Next flight of suggestions will either be straight bets of DOUBLE POSITIVES/DOUBLE UP bet or DOUBLE FADES from 3pm - 5pm zone ....time to put my feet up and dig for some TOTAL PLAYS and watch some scoreboards/games 

1pm TOTAL PLAY - Delaware OVER 132 x HALF U

-I can see why Vegas might set this line this low ....BUT ...Delaware can put up points at home and yes they are facing a pretty good defense but they will be loose in this game and wanting to get their own offense going ....I see a loose game with 6 - 16 Delaware with nothing to lose here so the game will flow 

I just went through my whole DATA SET looking for best FADES and you know what...........

VEGAS IS GIVING AWAY NOTHING !!!

-you literally have to take an UNDER +5 line for the dog OR have a weak shooting or defensive team at home UNDER +10 pts and I just did the matchups on those possibilities and they are marginally ok or poor

TEASER or nothing for the rest of the day on SIDES for me.....maybe one game I see late I will take the FADE side on a matchup correlation and going to keep that one under my hat for now

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Did I tell you I hate betting Saturdays due to Vegas??? Its a hunch bettors day and that is not me

LOOKING AT TOTALS now exclusively for any sides I will play unless my DOUBLE UP loses and I have about 3-4 sides that are only rated good on the DOUBLE POSITIVE and will plug my nose and hope I don't lose 4 in a row!

I don't like how this COASTAL Carolina game is going for my teaser.....

$25 UMASS winning margin to win by 14 - 16 pts paying +650

$15 UMASS winning margin to win by 17-20 pts paying +600 

Coastal cannot hit a shot at home in first half....that usually changes, but just in case this gets out of hand 

Play #1 - DOUBLE POSITIVE CORRELATION > DOUBLE UP play in effect - lose, and the next DP PLAY = 1 Unit

Virginia -13.5 x HALF U  

- I like the UNDER even better as my notes will explain why

UNDER 147 x 1U   

Missed my DOUBLE UP leg #1 play by a hair..........TEASERS are still alive but I am in trouble with Coastal Carolina KEY ....need a big half and I have a shot at 10 TEASERS cashing 

1pm TOTAL PLAY - Delaware OVER 132 x HALF U  < declaring this a WINNER ahead of time ....84 pts first half....and 15 pts scored to open 2nd half in less than 4 minutes puts me at 99 pts .....this is NOT going UNDER !!

2 - 1 to start my day +1U (looking for more after the DOUBLE UP straight play from my pool of candidates ...back shortly)

OK....  ....2 three point shots to get it to within 8 pts...playing better is Coastal C in the second half

Coastal C within 3 pts of lead now 

Gotta have fun ....I fully recognize Saturdays are crapshoots so might as well cheer my plays even though some say that is a no-no! 

 I work too hard to sit on my hands and be silent ....cheering works for me with horses....whipping my ass as they move down the stretch 

WOW .... tie game !!

Play #3 - not a DOUBLE UP > Kent St Under 150.5 x HALF U - non conference game

-SMISS can play defense....Kent is playing that way late season on the road

- I expect both sides will use bench players a little more 

I can see a 76 -70 type of score 

Coastal Carolina just took the lead after being down to UMASS by 14 in the second half.....unreal comeback and likely going to get my TEASER KEY secured now 

OT in UMASS - CC game ....UMASS made clutch 3 pt to tie ...late

Play #4 - DOUBLE UP x 1U (Leg #2) 3:30 pm

- this is a DOUBLE POSITIVE CORRELATION so I should be taking the -11.5 

- I like the UNDER

-since a key injury to an offensive guard, Vandy is playing much tougher defense and scores are coming down

- Oklahoma wants to get into offensive rock fights but they are not good enough to push Vandy in my opinion

- sightlines and lightning in Vandy's homecourt is not good for visitor over the years

UNDER 159.5 x 1U DOUBLE UP

TEASER PLAYs (5 pt) - using DOUBLE FADES and other POSITIVE PLAYS as KEYS

 -HALF U each

KEY Coastal C +6.5 with Virginia -8.5(line changed) with:   ALIVE 

KEY Coastal C +6.5 with Syracuse +18.5 ($25 each) with:  ALIVE

1. Tenn Martin -3.5

2. Vandy -6

3. Iona +0.5

4. South Dakota +15.5

5. Colgate -0.5

--------------------------------------------Exotic Plays (Backups)

Support bets winning margin in BET365 for my TEASER KEY at 1 pm

HALF U > winning margin bet > UMASS to win by -7 to -9 paying +800

$25 > winning margin bet > UMASS to win by 10-13 paying +750

$10 > winning margin bet > UMASS to win by 3-6 paying +500

$10 > winning margin bet > UMASS to win by 1-2 paying  +850

$10 > winning margin bet > Coastal to win by 1-2 paying  +1100

$10 > winning margin bet > Coastal to win by 3-6 paying  +600 << only winner

$25 UMASS winning margin to win by 14 - 16 pts paying +650

$15 UMASS winning margin to win by 17-20 pts paying +600 

-$145 laid on backup plays  > return back $70 ..... too bad I got lowerst payout BUT have $325 in TEASERS paying +110 each

Lost $125 using SC/TCU teasers....KEY lost so they are all moot

If this Vandy UNDER 159.5 does not hold..... I am onto my 3RD LEG of DOUBLE UPs

2U x Stephen Austin -8.5 (if VANDY does not hold UNDER)

1U if I get the UNDER on Vandy

Other Plays:

S.Dakota Over 157.5 x HALF U

Marist ML 1.95 x 1U

Duke-UNC Over 151.5 x 1U ...you always take the first game OVER and be cautious in second game of their home and away series 

I like some more later ....will post later 

Saturday is such a shitshow...no matter how much time I put into it, weird stuff happens every week but you know what, it doesn't stop me but motivate me much more to stay on it.

Onto Leg #3 in Double Ups > Stephen Austin.

If I lose that one, do not be surprised I take a later game for 4 Units for leg #4 .... I like a bunch of games and TOTALS including the night cap in Hawaii

Another Play I like:

Pepperdine Under 142.5 x HALF U

-Pacific on a roll and like playing defense on the road ...Pepperdine have to play tough defense to be effective

Illinois ML x 1U - they are one of the best road teams in NCAAB and yes Sparty are tough ....but playing lousy since Michigan game

Have 3-5 possiblilities late....it just depends on how I feel the night is going ....will post for you regardless ...but may not play myself. Big Super Bowl party and poker night after tomorrow....then I am up early Monday working for the host as a callin....haha....I am not drinking right now so it suits me fine to scoop $300 for 6 hrs of work while they party and sleep in

I can't believe it....they let them back in!!!

@Last2thirst

 It’s ok bro I know you put the time in.  

@Last2thirst

This Saturday thing has evolved into more than a pattern. And the minute we start to fade it will reverse. Crazy. No worries. March madness on the horizon.

Today:

 4 - 2 on Double Ups/Correlative Plays  +2.5 U

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0 - 2 Matchup plays  -1.5 U

Left to fulfill:

Illinois ML  x 1U

Pepperdine Under x HALF U 

....got a chance to break even

Exotic Plays (Teasers, parlays, ingame etc):

-$125  (0-5 $25 plays /Key lost in second set of plays)

-$75  (back up plays to cover 1st set of Teasers)

-$60 (only 2 of 5 for 1st set of Teasers) 

Total = -$260 loss (3 way teasers are not easy)

DOWN $10 if I get those 2 matchup plays  and -$60 or -$160 on the day if I miss 1 or both

Not good enough sometimes and that really is true of many ...that's gambling. Who the fuck cares about one day burn or nothing gained haha

You work for the big days!

Some of these Plays I sat on have changed a little bit too much for me except for 1 play and I will do it with a TEASER despite the tough day with them:

I wanted earlier:

BYU +1.5 > now -1

BYU Over 149.5 > now 151.5 

UCSB/USCIRV 138.5 > now 140.5 (I was going to play OVER on this one and BYU Over and BYU ML)

St.Mary-s -11 > now -12

Hawaii -7.5 > same

Hawaii Under 146.6 UNDER > now 147

Plays to come a few minutes before 10pm

TEASERs $40 pay +110 = +$44 profit per win

Hawaii -2.5 with St. Mary's -7 with:

1. BYU +4

2. Houston Over 146

3. Hawaii Under 152

4. UC IRVINE +6.5

5. UCSB OVER 135.5 

HAWAII UNDER 147.5 is what I am looking for ..... x 2U ...but have to watch the line ... x1U if its 147 or lower

Corrections....when laid I got for teaser:

Over UCRIRV 133.5

BYU +6 << fave flipped again

HAWAII UNDER 149 x 2U !! << wow, what a move up

I just refreshed BET365 while watching this killer Illinois -Sparty game/.......BYU now fave again in its game....all plays now in 

Down -$60 on the day depending on what happens with Sparty-Illinois....it could become -$160