L2T Conference Betting Thread

Play #8 - Kentucky +13.5 x HALF U

Play #9 - OVER 154.5 x HALF U

- winners of 8 of 9 and playing well against good teams.... I have a helluva a lot of respect for how Florida has progressed and become a bona fide Top 10 team.... this matchup is usually close and Kentucky won at home 

-this game might get turbocharged with some end to end action

First 4 games = 2 - 2  +1U

On deck to close out:

Play #5 - VTECH -4.5 x HALF U

Play #6 NDST -ND Over 150 x HALF U

Play #7 - Marquette/Xavier Under 157.5 x HALF U

Play #8 - Kentucky +13.5 x HALF U

Play #9 - OVER 154.5 KY/FLA x HALF U

What the hell happened to Va Tech, they were up 6 early in 2nd half then I went into the store and came out about 25 min later and they were down 22. Wow.

2-3 -0.5 U in mid day games....good enough for me..... gonna get both FLA plays

Made money on a Saturday for a change albeit not much.

I might bang a play later 

Gonzaga to win by 3- 6 pts winning margin on Bet365 x 1U  @ +425

Gonzaga to win by 7 -9 pts winning margin  x HALF U @+750  

Santa Clara to win by 1-2 pts winning margin $20 @ +1200

Gonzaga to win by 1-2 pts inning margin $20 @ +800

This should be a dandy game...... SANTA CLARA at home is an animal and they will stay in this game I bet ($190) on it .....if Zaga wins by 10 or more, call it a bad read and just eat it

Alabama Under 168.5 x 1U

- SC won't hack and foul in the second half unless they are close and if they are then the total is pretty low I surmise.....final score will be like 95 - 68 or something like that ....maybe 90 - 74 

I just took Ohio St +5.5 in game play for HALF U as well..... they are monsters at home vs comparable competition and I think these teams are ...big test for Virginia coming into a BIG10 tough home court

Ok, 5 - 5 on the day +1.5

1 - 0 +$50 on exotic plays

-have $190 hanging bets on Gonz-SC game...which I am going to follow

*** THAT GAME is my gravy ....up $200 on the day

BRONCOS are rockin!!!!!

UP by 5 over Gonzaga with 12 minutes to go. I am watching it on delay on Youtube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZOQINbyjoc

Feb 14 TOP TEAMS update:

TOP 4  Especially have: >  Best Size, Talent, Full court Cohesion mix

#1 Michigan

#2 Duke

#3 UCONN

#4 Florida  (will stay here until they falter)

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#5 Houston  (deserves to be Top 4 soon)  

#6 Arizona

#7 Purdue

#8 Texas Tech

#9 Gonzaga

#10 St John's

Also considered: 

Illinois

Arkansas

Iowa St.

Kansas 

Vanderbilt

Alabama

Nebraska

Virginia 

N.Carolina

Louisville

Darkhorses P5:   Miami, Villanova, NC State

Non  P5 Darkhorses:  Santa Clara, Utah St

Not sure how to place: Tennessee, Kentucky, St.Mary's, Miami Ohio, Texas ....there are more but the cream of the crop lately and finishing strongly are the ones above in the Top 20

Sparty should be on that Top 20 list and tied with Louisville .... I don't like how they start a game and are chasing good teams to try to get  back into a match. This will haunt them in NCAAB tourney

Fantastic Saturday of basketball!

 5 - 5 on the day +1.5 U (+$150)

1 - 0 +$50 on exotic  in game play

Gonzaga to win by 3- 6 pts winning margin on Bet365 x 1U  @ +425

 Gonzaga to win by 7 -9 pts winning margin  x HALF U @+750   $425 Return (-$190 spent)

Santa Clara to win by 1-2 pts winning margin $20 @ +1200

Gonzaga to win by 1-2 pts inning margin $20 @ +800

Best Positive Double Correlation Betting situations today - just have to check matchup info now 

(Rank group comparison + Spread Value)

+36 > Monmouth -2 (h) vs Towson

+36 > Campbell -3 (h) vs Charleston

+35 > Youngstown -3 @ Detroit

Biggest FADE the Favorite situations from Double Correlation Factor:

-56 success > Valpo -5.5 (h) vs Indiana St 

-50 success > Marist -2 (h) vs Siena

-45 success > Quinn -1 (h) vs Merrimack

-31 success > Wright St -7.5 @ Cleveland St.

I might suggest 1-2 Plays from those two groups today ....

Play #1 - Youngstown-Detroit Over 150.5 x 1U

-this is a revenge game for Youngstown and Detroit likes to score at home 

-Youngstown can score on the road well if motivated and they should be for sure

-it appears that Detroit has improved a lot since their Dec meeting and so I expect an open game

Play #2 - Valpo-Indiana St Under 143.5 x 1U

-Valpo likes to play tight defense at home and turn that into offensive opportunities

-Indiana St wants revenge but are dealing with 3 contributing players being questionable 

- I really see this game being played by both teams with team totals in the 60's and maybe one team hit 70-73 pts 

Play #3 - SIU - Bradley Under 146.5 x HALF U

-Bradley can sling the 3 pt shot well but this is exactly what SIU does on defense very well and their defense is strong in general

-most of their games end up in the 140-144 total range so this number might be a few pts too high

There are just not enough points to chew on taking the DOG in the Siena - Marist contest....

-these two play tight games under 130 pts regularly and with both teams on a losing streak, I would suspect they rely on what gave them success and that is playing tight basketball with fundamentals with what coaches tend to stress in pre-game and practices leading up to a match where you are on a losing streak

Play #4 > Marist - Siena Under 133.5 x HALF U

Play #5 - Merrimack +3 x 1U - I also think the ML is a good gamble but have too many plays open 

-Merrimack won the first matchup and is on a long win streak now playing better teams and winning on the road

-Merrimack can smother the outside shot and that is what Quinn relies on > 3 pt success but they have to face the #19 best 3 point defense to accomplish their offensive goals on some set plays

-this is a very strong DOUBLE FADE and I like it even better with a matchup scope included 

Play #6 Cleveland St +7.5 x HALF U

-they beat Wright St in their building and now come home to their own floor where they like to score

-Clev St has a very good offense but not so much defensively

-Wright St #281st vs FG % defense and #144 vs 3 pt .....I think they will have a hard time containing Clev St

All yesterday from 3 pm through the evening, I could not access this site....I had 2-3 more plays that I hit 2 of them for nice profits and one that cacked late but was only a HALF U

I have done my SOS last update.

I am almost done my last ranking update and it will be the last one as not much will move from this point too much.

I have my pts scored on offense and pts allowed on defense updated ready for matchup analysis through tourneys.

Next, I am placing all teams in SOS ranking (my whole chart of 365).

Each team will then be ranked within rank levels I used during the season to sift them and using a point system based on the following criteria to match them up and determine who moves on:

1. SOS rank divided by 2 - one thing I have noticed, the teams with higher SOS that have improved their rank by 100 pts or more have actually played better through the season with tougher competition...the cream rises to the situation and I don't want this high number to over dominate the avg.

2. 3 pt shooting % rank

3. 3 pt shooting defense %  rank

4. FT shooting % rank

5. Offensive rebounding rank 

6. Defending hoop = FG% allowed on defense

Then avg out their ranks to get an overall score and rank them > re-arrange ALL teams on a final spreadsheet to be ready for NCAAB tourney and I don't put much stock in Conference Tourney games UNLESS the team has to fight to get to the NCAAB tourney as a double team or a shocker to make it which happens every year

I will be posting plays here and there and recording results on my Conference and Non Conference lists (last two weekends had games that were Non Conf) but the real work is being ready to press on certain matchups in the NCAAB tourney

Neutral court record will also be noted..... that can be a biggie when analyzing stats too....but I won't take that into account UNTIL AFTER the conference tourneys and just before I fill out brackets for NCAAB. Some tourneys like NIT and CBB have home courts used in early rounds 

Monday card:

Play #1 - parlay > Bethune ML 1.4 x Iowa St ML 1.66 = +132 x 2U

- if Houston can beat Iowa St on their home court with their defense and offensive movement/rabid crowd and the best 3 pt shooter in college who is hot again and shooting from everywhere and off balance too........then I tip my hat to Houston who then could be a TOP 3 legit team!!

-Bethune beat Jackson St by over 35 pts in their first match, have played a stronger SOS and have scored more on avg and given up less points..... I highly doubt Jackson St shoots lights out and holds down this team who just lost a terrible but close game

Play #2 - parlay > Bethune 1.4 x Iowa St Over 135 @1.9 x 1U > pays +166 

-Houston will have to score to have a shot at winning and know that Sampson as a coach and his players that he recruits love the challenge of taking on a team that everyone tells them they cannot beat them on the road in their building .....and that is what people are saying about this game

- I see foul shots and 3 pt shots made being the difference in this game to push it over to  72 -65 type of score .....maybe 74 - 69

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These are my two main plays but I will shop for some more for a HALF U if I feel they can have a very strong chance of covering....

Cougars /Cyclones is much watch TV .....just like the Devils - Wolverines later this week ....OMG basketball!!!!

Action Plays:

1U x TexamComm ML x 1.74 

Contrarian to Total movement > UNDER 137.5 x HALF U

Let's see what happens here....and then I will hopefully roll some profit in some other games later that are early

-$150 on the line

Booyah! Good half for me

Great calls! I went huge on both since you normally don't do early games like this, looking good!

I figure I am going to earn on the ML play so I am betting next game up ....

UNDER Coppin/SCST 141 x HALF U