L2T Conference Betting Thread

Wed night Plays - 2 so far

UCONN -11 x 1U

-if there is a better designed system and set of basketball fundamentals than this starting lineup, you would be hard pressed to convince me....maybe Arizona's starters but they are young .....this team will bounce back well from Madison Sq garden loss which was a helluva game vs STJ (watched the whole game!) ...Butler with two key guards injured and don't have the team to stop what UCONN can do to them and I doubt Butler has the players to consistently score to match what UCONN will do 

Central Arkansas -7.5 x 1U

-very strong rank correlation and just think this teams long win streak now is not a fluke and won't fluke a win vs a 2-10 visitor who does not play defense very much

There will be more games...just wanted to get these in before they switch (bigger lines are best when ripest)

This play will be my whole night.....

UTSA -ECU UNDER 150.5 x 4U

- how is UTSA going to contribute to this when their offense is awful....their defense is ok and they have been facing a lot of offensive teams....ECU shooting is not very good and they are not a juggernaut

- I have no idea why this is so high...I think it should be closer to 142 or even lower because one team avgs 65.7 a game on offense and the other is 68.6 

I am sure there are more plays and I will look for later ones.....but I am just going to take a stab at this one paying me out satisfactorily as my main press play for now as far as early games 

I definitely will have an 8 pm play and just holding off for now..... might be a big splash at it as well

@Last2thirst

@Last2thirst

GL  on your plays @Last2thirst 

Hey Westie, how are ya bud? 

Brutal cold winter but I am still doing my long walks haha.....hope your season is going great. I have a lot of work and trying to keep up with the data and picks so I never bounce around and comment....work occasionally too.

Looking forward to the Jays season this year and how Okamoto fits in and the other young players/pitchers develop to compliment this team...I am calling for a Jays - Dodgers 2.0 OR Jays - Mets vs Bo haha

This ECU game is going to be a nervous last couple of minutes I think....both sides keep making 3 pt shots and this is pushing 74 right now with time on the clock

Jesus....there is another one!

I love this play a lot and might as well go in deep >> OVER N.Dakota/S.Dakota 156.5 x 4U

These guys are a big rivalry and every game every year is OVER 160 pts and I don't see it stopping given the totals these two are posting in recent games 

I wouldn't press like me....I am up very well this season and can afford to do this if I lose all plays today

UMBC -3.5 x 1U

UNDER 141.5 Bryant -UMASS Lowell x HALF U

Belmont -4.5 x 1U

That's me done for the night

2-1 Thursday +1.5 U ......but I am climbing back out of a weekly hole from Wednesday being down -9U in a near wipeout which is humbling but also, necessary to cleanse about a 4-5 week profitable weekly run that I had since my last wipeout situation on a Saturday

Baby steps...

Scroll through results the past 5 days and you will see a lot of contrarian results in two ways:

1. most prominently > low scoring weak defensive teams facing each other producing high scoring totals over 150 and blow well over their numbers set by Vegas (tapping these plays were working for me earlier but now they are consistently going OVER)

-what do these teams have to look forward to?? 

-only Conference games to climb up the ladder and shock and they only way they will do it is to jack up 3 pt shots and increase their offensive tempo to give them a chance

2. strong teams in a home situation or road situation on big numbered lines that should cover and win ARE NOT and losing with more frequency

-are these teams using their bench more?

-are these teams tweaking their defensive sets from man to man and now to more zone so its harding to break out in transition as your eye is not on ball as much or the offensive player is above you so harder to break out whereas with man to man there seems to be more flow

I am considering now both of these options when I look at games and matchups.... I will be a little more conservative in my assumptions unless I see a mistake from Vegas, on a line. I also should still rely on my spreadsheet and just tap the very best correlations

So which teams seem to be sliding or really coming on?

UPTICK Teams:

Miami Ohio - have a real great shot at finishing undefeated going into Conference Tourney and the last time I can remember seeing that was Fred Van Fleet's team at Wichita St a decade ago? This team takes on all challenges with any game style thrown at them.

Boise - strong start and then wavered mid season but coming on strong now again

Winthrop - on a long win streak and they gave some good games to some good teams in Non-Conf schedule

Hofstra - right their leaking ship and now playing like they were (4 game streak) producing great stats

Coastal Car. - have played really well over 10 games (8-2) and mostly good teams 

Northern Colorado - 5 wins in a row and vs some strong teams 

Portland St. - this is a real good team and very under rated (won 11 of past 12 or so)

Cal Baptist - long win streak/show they can play out of their control the game style and win scoring over 80 pts

UCSanta B. - winners of 8 of 9 and many of them top conference teams

VCU  - 8 wins in a row including navigating some tricky road matchups

Alabama - despite being blown out by Florida, they have improved their play a lot and finishing games well in 4 of last 5

S.Florida - only 2 losses in last 10 and most games have been against really good teams

Liberty - 15 game or more winning streak!

Santa Clara - I am smitten with this team....only loss in last long stretch was vs Gonzaga 

Wisconsin - have taken down some heavyweights in their last 10 games or so

Arkansas - they are just sneaky very good 

Kansas - been talking up this team for 3 weeks now and they proved it again knocking off the top team

St John's - have won close to 10 in a row including UCONN

Louisville - reversing well off a tailspin with 4 in a row

Stephen Austin - longggg win streak and nice scalp of McNeese

Indiana - finding their groove again and scalps vs Wisconsin and Purdue

Kentucky - one loss in last 9 games

DOWNTICK Teams: - winning teams that are faltering lately 

Marist

Akron

George Mason

Troy

Texas AM

Iowa St.

Nebraska

Illinois

Vanderbilt

Auburn

BYU

Oklahoma St.

McNeese

Grand Canyon

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Glad I did this ....helps set me up for the next couple- few weeks into tourneys 

Play #1 Saturday - STJ/Providence Under 167.5 x 1U

- I saw last week how Pitino has his team guarding the outside shot and setting up their own on offense 

- if you look at their last 3 games or so, they have gone under this total and Providence is not going to run up the score in my opinion and have their way on offense .....they are also down a good scoring contributor

-their first game got 148 pts.... I don't see why STJ has to be super motivated to score and get into a slugfest

Play #2 - Furman Under 145.5 x HALF U

- I mulled making this my early strongest play but I have been burnt on middling teams playing atypically in TOTAL games in the past few weeks

-that said, Furman-VMI only got 117 their first game and VMI does not match up well on offense vs this team who has a strong on the ball defense so VMI will have trouble jacking up 3 pt shots early in the shot clock like they tend to do 

L2T......

Play #3 - Kansas +8 x 1 U

- look, Iowa St is not a good road team and Kansas is known more for its home court prowess too BUT Self has a team that can play defense better than IWST does at home and therefore the crowd will not be as big of an influence on the result.....Kansas is as good offensively when they pass well and that is how you beat IWST in their building ....pass to execute and get to the charity stripe where Kansas thrives ....IOWA ST is not a good FT team so your defense can bang them and that is what Kansas can do or play tight

-Kansas on the rise, IWST on the drop and this spread is too big 

@Last2thirst

Play #4 - Boston -5.5 x 1.5 U

- I want to pound the OVER as well but just in case Bucknell does not shoot well and the score ends up 76-80 to 60 .... so this one is better 

-revenge game....both teams on a roll but Boston can shoot lights out at home and they can score almost every time down the court ...BUCKNELL, not so much....they have to control the other team to have a chance

Just bumped this play up..... just noticed in point differential, Boston and Buck have same pts allowed but Boston scores over 6 pts more on offensive for both home and road combined.....at home they are even better !!

Don't play my picks on a Saturday or more recently.... I think I am a FADE right now 

Kansas - Iowa is a #2 - seed and potential #1 seed battle although I doubt the big 4 will be supplanted.....

Loser of this game will likely fall to #3 seed in my opinion (I don't look at ESPN and all that shit for their prognostication until March using some info as prep )

Play #5 - VTECH -4.5 x HALF U

-strong double positive correlation on rank groups and spread

Not playing this but there is a strong DOUBLE FADE with aligning with Pitt @ UNC..... I think +16.5 after teasing would be ideal to grab

Play #6 NDST -ND Over 150 x HALF U

-traditionally over when both have winning teams 

Play #7 - Marquette/Xavier Under 157.5 x HALF U

-you would think with two weak defenses they run up scores but that is not the case in this matchup

-Xavier mostly live and die off of the 3 pt and off rebounding ..... Marquette does not have a singular skill they excel at but just do most things decently

- I was looking at this one as OVER but their matchup stats has me pausing and going the other way....feel bet