While the USA and Turkey already know their World Cup bracket fate, Thursday’s group-stage finale still carries meaning for the USMNT.
The Americans can finish the group stage with nine points for the first time in program history, and my USA vs. Turkey predictions expect even a rotated side to keep rolling.
With momentum building and the USMNT gaining ground in the World Cup odds, read on for my World Cup picks for June 25.
TOP PICK
Who will win USA vs Turkey: USA (-116)
There will undoubtedly be wholesale changes to the USA lineup. Tyler Adams, Folarin Balogun, Antonee Robinson, and Chris Richards all come into the match sitting on a yellow card.
To risk them getting a second — and being suspended for the Round of 32 fixture — would be utterly foolish. Additionally, Christian Pulisic isn’t likely to be risked as he’s still coming back from injury.
That said, Mauricio Pochettino made it very clear in his Australia post-match presser that he wants to keep the momentum going with another victory.
He’s already shown an ability to adapt the USA formation to both his personnel and his opponent’s strengths. I expect him to set up the USMNT on Thursday to frustrate Turkey’s attackers.
Turkey’s 62 shots are by far the most of any nation in the tournament, but they’ve managed to put only 13 of those on target.
As the match against Paraguay progressed, you could see their frustration building as they simply fired at will. They put just five of their 32 shots on target, with a 0.67 xGOT compared to a 2.17 xG.
Look for Pochettino to key on that, deny their players clean looks, and wrap up the first-ever perfect World Cup group stage for the USMNT.
Playable to -120.
USA vs Turkey Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 (-130)
News broke on Monday that CM Cristian Roldan is dealing with a muscle injury. This means that with Adams held out, Pochettino faces a dilemma at the holding midfield role.
It also means that the Americans are likely to allow a goal at some point. And given we’re backing them to win, logic dictates that we take the Over.
Turkey has looked very slow, especially on defense, and Australia hurt them multiple times on the break. The Americans have registered five direct attacks so far, tied for the fifth-most of any nation at the tournament.
Their pace up top, through players like Ricardo Pepi and Tim Weah, will allow them to generate quick attacking moves when Turkey turns the ball over.
On the flip side, the Americans have been a bit fortunate to have only conceded one goal. They’ve committed the third-most errors leading to shots, behind only Tunisia and Iraq.
Given the lack of stakes for either side, I don’t see defenders selling out to block shots. That should lead to a few more opportunities on goal as well.
Playable to -130.
USA vs Turkey goal scorer pick: Gio Reyna (+333)
Turkey has done a good job neutralizing opposing strikers in their first two matches of the competition. It’s wide players — particularly those attacking Turkey’s right side — that they’ve struggled to contain.
I’m expecting Gio Reyna to get the start on that side, which makes him an attractive value play. Reyna would be one of the USA’s primary playmakers, and he showed during the 4-1 win over Paraguay that he’s a threat to score.
Turkey have allowed only six shots on target, but have conceded three goals. Their goalkeeper has shown issues with shots from distance, and Reyna isn’t afraid to curl one.
I’ll back him to bag another goal in the group stage.
See who will have the best opportunities to score goals in our World Cup set-piece takers guide.
USA vs Turkey bonus pick
One team is overdue.
— Chris Vasile (@mc_silly3) June 25, 2026
And one team can’t defend.
🇹🇷 Turkey vs. USA 🇺🇸
🇯🇵 Japan vs. Sweden 🇸🇪
Today’s World Cup best bets for @Covers pic.twitter.com/dqOfxEGAQ4
USA vs Turkey projected lineup
USA (4-2-3-1): Turner; Scally, McKenzie, Trusty, Arfsten; Berhalter, Aaronson, Reyna; Weah, Pepi, Zendejas.
Turkey (4-2-3-1): Cakir; Muldur, Demiral, Kabak, Kadioglu; Ozcan, Calhanoglu, Guler; Yilmaz, Akturkoglu, Yildiz.
USA vs Turkey injuries
USA: LW Christian Pulisic (Doubtful), CM Cristian Roldan (Doubtful).
Turkey: AM Kenan Yildiz (Probable), AM Yunus Akgun (Doubtful).
USA vs Turkey weather
The weather will not be a factor as this game will be played inside of a dome.
USA vs Turkey odds
 USA |
 Turkey |
|
|---|---|---|
| -108 | Moneyline | +270 |
| +335 | Draw | +335 |
| Over 2.5 (-122) | Total | Under 2.5 (+117) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch USA vs Turkey
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA |
| Date | Thursday, June 25, 2026 |
| Time | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
