The Minnesota Lynx are without their best player for the foreseeable future, and that makes a night against one of the WNBA’s best defenses rather worrisome. Logically, the Seattle Storm are thus three-bucket favorites.
Our free WNBA picks will focus on a more specific Minnesota concern in our Lynx vs. Storm predictions before tip at 10:00 ET on Friday, July 12.
Lynx vs Storm predictions
My best bet
Kayla McBride Under 15.5 points (-113 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Kayla McBride is enjoying one of the greatest shooting seasons you will ever see, hitting 43.2% of her 3-pointers while taking 6.7 per game. Shooting like that sets a borderline floor on scoring, McBride averaging 15.5 points this season.
But life is more difficult right now. Minnesota Lynx MVP candidate Napheesa Collier has missed the last two-plus games with a plantar fasciitis frustration. In the two full games Collier has missed, McBride has scored 17 and 11 points, which is not exactly trend enough to argue for fading her tonight.
But her 3-point attempts fell to four per game. Let’s emphasize that: With Collier in the lineup, McBride took seven 3-pointers per game through 20 games. In two games without Collier, McBride has taken four 3-pointers in each game.
The Seattle Storm will exacerbate that now-concerning shot selection, holding opponents to just 20.1 looks from deep per game, the second-lowest rate in the WNBA. In the last month, that has fallen further, to 17.3, the lowest rate in the WNBA.
Furthermore, opponents have made just 31.6% of those shots in the 11 games covering the last month.
McBride is an all-around player, but her game hinges on her success from deep. Without Collier demanding defensive focus, those looks are more limited. Against Seattle, they should be even more crowded, if available at all.
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Lynx vs Storm same-game parlay (SGP)
Kayla McBride Under 15.5 points
Kayla McBride Under 2.5 made 3s
Under 153.5
To some degree, the three legs of this same-game parlay are all the same bet, so even if this is a heavily correlated parlay, the +246 payout on the same thought over and over and over again provides value.
Not to mention, McBride’s shooting began cooling off before Collier’s injury. In the last month, McBride has fallen short of this 3-pointer prop in eight of 11 games, in part because she has hit just 21-of-64 (32.8%) from beyond the arc. Tied to that, McBride has fallen short of the points prop in six of 11 games.
Two of the WNBA’s top-three defenses should turn this into an ugly offensive game, particularly without Collier. The added piece to this thought is that Jewell Loyd is putting together the most inefficient prolific-scoring season in the WNBA.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Lynx vs Storm odds
Lynx vs Storm live odds
Get the latest Lynx vs Storm WNBA odds for tonight.
Lynx vs Storm opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota +3.0 | Seattle -3.0
- Moneyline: Minnesota +134 | Seattle -164
- Over/Under: Over 153.5 | Under 153.5
Lynx vs Storm spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Storm opened as 3-point favorites on Thursday, a number that climbed to -5.5 by the end of the night and peaked at -7 early on Friday before stabilizing at -6.5.
- Collier may be worth as many as six points to the spread. Minnesota was a 7-point road favorite at Chicago two weeks ago, while Seattle was a 9.5-point home favorite. Usual homecourt adjustments would look at those numbers and think the Storm might be only slightly favored in a pick’em tonight.
- The total did not move as much as the spread did, in fact hardly moving at all. It opened at 153.5, dropped to 152.5, peaked at 154.5, and settled right where it began.
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Lynx vs Storm trend
Minnesota’s last five games have gone Under their totals and by an average of 16.6 points compared to bookmakers’ expectations. Find more WNBA betting trends for Lynx vs. Storm.
Lynx vs Storm game info
| Location: | Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Friday, 7-12-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ION |
Lynx vs Storm latest injuries
Lynx: Napheesa Collier (Out).
Storm: Mackenzie Holmes (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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